RANE 2023.1.31---2023 年美國地理挑戰賽

The United States of America encompasses territory spanning from the Arctic Circle and Central Pacific to the Gulf of Mexico and the North Atlantic. The greater Mississippi Basin is the United States' core and serves as the underpinning of its role as a global superpower. The Basin hosts an extensive network of navigable rivers that overlay the world's largest contiguous piece of arable land. This naturally interconnected river system facilitated integration among settlers and allowed for cheap transport of goods, providing the United States with the ability to feed itself efficiently and rapidly build up industry and capital to expand West. The Midwestern core gave early America strategic depth, while an expanding US coastline, naturally indented with deep harbors, provided its opening to the world. After reaching the Pacific Coast in the mid-19th century, the US found itself insulated by two oceans. On the continent itself, geography, again, has worked in the country's favor.
Lakes to the north and deserts to the south insulate the United States' population centers, with both Canada and Mexico facing too many natural constraints of their own to seriously rival it. This unparalleled level of wealth and protection gives the United States options that no other country can claim. For one, the United States has used its wealth and security to build the world's largest navy. Control of the world's major. Sea lanes give the United States the power to facilitate or deny trade to allies or rivals of the day. The onus, therefore, is on the United States to carefully manage its engagements abroad and build up strategic allies to protect its overseas interests and preserve its strength at home.
RANE (Risk Assistance Network + Exchange), is a global risk intelligence company that provides risk and security professionals with access to critical insights, analysis and support, enabling them to better anticipate, monitor and respond to emerging risks and threats. Join the millions who are tapping into the collective wisdom of the world’s largest community of risk and business professionals. For more information about RANE, visit www.ranenetwork.com.

RANE 2023.1.28---2023 年俄羅斯地理挑戰賽

RANE 2023.1.28---2023 年阿根廷地理挑戰賽

RANE2023.1.7--- 2023 Annual Geopolitical Forecast

0:01 well good morning everybody uh my name
0:04 is Ryan mole I'm a senior Middle East
0:05 North Africa analyst here with rain
0:07 excuse my clock we uh we live in an old
0:10 older house here and I'm here with our
0:12 senior uh Europe analyst Adriano bassoni
0:16 and we're going to be talking about rain
0:18 networks 2023 forecast uh the major
0:21 geopolitical events and trends that we
0:23 expect to unfold and how we expect them
0:25 to unfold for the coming year so Adriano
0:27 thanks for joining me yeah nice talking
0:30 with you Ryan we were talking backstage
0:32 this is the first time that we do one of
0:33 these together so it's it's nice to
0:35 finally share a Facebook live with you
0:37 yeah yeah it's very exciting that we do
0:40 a little cross collaboration here
0:41 between Nina and Europe from time to
0:43 time as well
0:44 so
0:45 um this is a fascinating annual forecast
0:49 I would say because this is one of those
0:51 very unique years in which
0:55 um we can definitely see overarching
0:58 themes and topics you know every year
1:01 and you and I Ryan we've been working on 1:03 annual forecasts for for a number of 1:05 years now every year it's kind of 1:07 difficult to try to find common themes 1:10 common topics across the entire world 1:12 because here at rain we cover every 1:15 corner of the Earth but in 2023 we will 1:19 definitely see a series of very clear 1:22 events and trends that will pretty much 1:25 impact the entire planet one of those 1:29 um Trends is this will be another year 1:32 of uh war in Ukraine our forecast is 1:36 that there will not be a ceasefire let 1:40 alone uh peace treaty in 2023 because 1:43 the Russians and the ukrainians they 1:45 still think they can extract more 1:47 concessions from the other and make more 1:49 gains on on the ground before actually 1:51 sitting on the negotiating table then 1:54 another common theme will be this will 1:56 be another year of high inflation and 1:59 central banks around the world keeping
2:02 or even hiking interest rates in order
2:05 to fight inflation we have a negative 2:08 impact on economic activities so we will 2:11 see very low growth and in in some cases 2:15 even recessions that's in the global 2:18 North in the global South we will 2:20 probably see 2:22 um energy crisis food crisis sovereign 2:26 debt defaults everything connected to 2:28 the combination of high inflation High 2:30 interest rates uh and overall slowing 2:33 economy so 2:35 um as I said before it's it's it's super 2:38 interesting to us as geopolitical 2:40 analysts to see that there are these 2:43 common 2:44 threats across the world and how they 2:46 impact every every region in a specific 2:48 way yeah and one of one of our top 2:51 forecasts is just about this emergence 2:53 of this multi-polar world in which 2:55 multilateral institutions like the World 2:56 Trade Organization become less relevant 2:59 as as countries seek out their own 3:00 interests and try to develop comparative 3:02 advantages whether that's military or 3:04 economic comparative advantages against 3:06 one another and means that the
3:08 rules-based order that so many people's
3:10 assumptions were built on continues to 3:12 be eroded uh through this year as part 3:14 of that wider Trend that we've been 3:15 seeing uh that we you know at rain have 3:17 been tracking for a long time 3:18 yeah exactly 3:20 um another of the big overarching themes 3:22 that I was mentioning before is the rise 3:25 of protectionism we will see the three 3:28 biggest economies in the world the 3:32 United States the European Union and 3:34 China all implementing their own 3:37 measures to protect their domestic 3:39 Industries to protect their domestic 3:41 workers to Shield themselves from 3:44 competition from from the rest at a time 3:46 of significant Global uncertainty so 3:50 this will have a negative impact on what 3:52 you were saying Ryan on on 3:54 multilateralism global cooperation 3:58 um Global integration this will be a
4:00 year in which a trend will actually move
4:01 in the opposite direction we will see 4:04 some aspects I don't want to exaggerated 4:06 here but some aspects over the 4:09 globalization which is which is to me a 4:11 super interesting development that will 4:14 have an impact in 2023 and Beyond so so 4:19 that's another that's another big one 4:21 and then 4:22 um regarding the the the regions 4:25 um what's the outlook for the Middle 4:28 East and North Africa which is the 4:29 region that that you particularly focus 4:31 on right so like one of the biggest 4:32 things we've been focusing on for years 4:34 is the progress towards the Iranian 4:36 nuclear deal and in 2023 we're not very 4:38 optimistic that we'll see much progress 4:40 there 4:41 um with Iran now supplying the Russians 4:43 with with arms in Ukraine with Iran in 4:45 the midst of a Crackdown against popular 4:47 descent at home 4:48 um the West simply isn't really in a 4:50 mood to negotiate and provide the 4:51 concessions that a hard-line regime like 4:54 Iran wants to see so we expect to see uh 4:56 continued Iranian nuclear development 4:58 they'll be doing advances Israel will
5:00 escalate its covert program uh it says
5:03 of assassinations and occasional strikes 5:05 within Iran itself to try to degrade 5:07 that nuclear program and there's always 5:09 a risk that that spirals out of control 5:11 and why we don't see conflict scenarios 5:13 being the most likely thing we certainly 5:14 do keep it as as a like as a potential 5:17 scenario um as we as we monitor how this 5:20 this kind of Fallen apart uh nuclear 5:23 talks progress 5:25 wow that that that's super interesting 5:27 uh and regarding Europe which is the the 5:29 area that I primarily focus on we will 5:32 see 5:33 it's gonna be a tough year 5:35 um energy supplies are gonna remain 5:37 tight and expensive as I said before 5:40 economic activity will slow down but it 5:44 will happen at a time when labor markets 5:46 are also relatively tight so we will see 5:50 um unions and other groups like pushing 5:52 for higher wages which could also 5:55 trigger wage related inflation and so 5:58 it's going to be a very interesting year
6:00 in in in Europe in which on the one hand
6:02 economic activity remains is slowing 6:05 down but the labor market is still 6:08 strong so workers feel encouraged to ask 6:11 for higher wages which could in turn 6:13 contribute to inflation so it's going to 6:16 be a super interesting year to watch the 6:18 European Union and against this 6:20 background as I said before we will see 6:22 a more protectionist Europe we will see 6:24 the EU 6:26 um allowing member states to protect 6:28 certain sectors of their economies we 6:31 will see the European Union Inc 6:33 increasing oversight of foreign 6:36 investments especially but not only from 6:39 China we will see the European Union 6:41 allowing its member states to maybe 6:44 spend a bit more they will reform their 6:47 their rules on fiscal deficits and debts 6:50 so that member states can spend their 6:52 way out of the economic crisis so it 6:56 will be a year of a more present
7:00 European state if you like but also
7:03 National governments increase in their 7:05 their protection of of the economy so 7:08 that's that's another big Trend that we 7:10 are tracking 7:12 um of course people are interested in in 7:15 Ukraine and Ryan I don't know if you 7:17 have any any additional thoughts um on 7:19 the evolution of the war well you know I 7:22 just contextualized that we have a 7:23 Christmas ceasefire and I would put that 7:25 in quotes right now and this sort of 7:28 ceasefires in quotes is really what our 7:30 Baseline forecast is is continued 7:32 intermittent fighting with two sides who 7:34 militarily uh have trouble making 7:36 advances against one another and that 7:38 will likely likely be the pattern 7:39 through the rest of the year and and 7:41 we're not expecting things like a 7:42 Russian um domestic Uprising that would 7:45 significantly alter Moscow as calculus 7:47 and we're not expecting the West to 7:48 abandon uh Ukraine either which would 7:50 force Kiev into making substantial 7:52 concessions and as long as some of those 7:54 factors remain in place 7:56 um we're looking at a stalemated fight 7:57 in which small parts of territory are 7:59 traded back and forth
8:01 um as the war continues to grind on for
8:03 the year yeah yeah exactly and the final 8:06 topic that I think we should discuss 8:08 before ending 8:09 um this Facebook live is something that 8:11 our clients ask us a lot about which is 8:14 the competition between the United 8:16 States and China especially when it 8:18 comes to technology we will see not only 8:21 a continuation but potentially an 8:23 intensification of that competition as 8:25 the United States reaches out to its 8:28 main Partners like South Korea Japan the 8:31 Netherlands to try to restrict 8:35 um their exports of crucial technology 8:38 like semiconductors but not only to 8:40 China and also the United States willing 8:42 to go it alone if they can't get enough 8:45 support because their partners are a bit 8:46 reluctant to irritating China too much 8:49 the United States will be willing to 8:52 um do even more to try to curtail 8:56 um China's access to technology and I 8:59 insist semiconductors will be the key
9:01 Battleground but it will expand over
9:04 time to other areas like artificial 9:07 intelligence and Quantum Computing and 9:09 and so on and so forth so there's no end 9:12 in sight for that 9:14 um War technological war between the 9:16 United States and China which will also 9:19 Force China to become more 9:21 self-sufficient and heavily pushed to 9:24 develop its own domestic internal 9:27 capabilities to to to to deal with this 9:29 isolation that the United States is 9:31 trying to create so yeah that's that's 9:32 another thing that that we get a lot of 9:34 questions from and speaking of questions 9:36 Ryan I have one for you if you are 9:39 watching this live and you say well 9:40 these two guys are kind of interesting I 9:43 want to read more from them where can 9:44 they find our 9:46 um 2023 annual forecast in particular 9:50 but our coverage on global Affairs in 9:52 general 9:53 so you can find it on our website at uh 9:55 rain worldview and I believe the I 9:57 always have to check the URL for this 9:59 but it's uh well it just popped up right
10:01 there there we go so rain worldview uh
10:03 rainnetwork.com uh world view is our our 10:06 product that you can subscribe to and 10:08 read our annual forecast and get an idea 10:10 of what we're thinking for 2023. 10:12 um I'm not sure Adriana we did just have 10:14 uh one question that popped up about oh 10:16 really yeah 10:18 um and uh and I'd like to see if we can 10:20 have a chance to address it 10:22 um the do you guys see a new Global 10:24 Reserve currency appearing in 2023 and 10:26 I'm not sure if you have any thoughts on 10:28 that 10:29 that's a great question we are actually 10:31 we actually published a story about this 10:34 I think it was today or maybe yesterday 10:36 uh and the short answer is no the long 10:41 answer is that China in particular they 10:44 will push really really heavy to 10:47 increase the internationalization of 10:49 their currency the the the REM will be 10:52 but they are very very far from turning 10:56 it into a global Reserve currency 10:57 because of internal limitations because
11:00 of the of the of their internal
11:01 regulations because of the way that the 11:03 Chinese markets work because of their 11:05 own financial sector which is very 11:07 modest because of their own internal 11:09 Market which is still very modest in 11:11 that regard so no and then we will see 11:14 other countries like India but it's not 11:16 much much earlier stage trying to kind 11:20 of do something similar but the answer 11:22 is no the US dollar will remain by far 11:27 uh the the main research currency which 11:30 gives the US that little extra leverage 11:33 when it comes to issues like sanctions 11:35 or or pressuring other countries so it's 11:38 it's a big leverage it's a big it's a 11:40 big Advantage when you control 11:42 um the the core 11:44 um Global Currency right and I mean as 11:46 we see the multi-polar world unfold over 11:48 the next decade the idea of alternative 11:50 Global Reserve currencies will become 11:52 more viable but it's a slow process the 11:54 US dollar is still very dominant and we 11:56 know that investors don't necessarily 11:58 like to take a risk on currencies that
12:01 might come from governments that
12:02 manipulate them here and there
12:04 um I don't know if anybody else has any
12:06 other questions otherwise
12:08 um I would encourage everyone to please
12:09 uh join you know check out our website
12:11 at rainnetwork.com uh rain worldview
12:14 again that is the product where you can
12:15 find our 2023 forecasts and um we hope
12:18 to see you guys again
12:19 thank you Ryan

RANE2023.1.7---2023 China Geographic Challenge

China is situated on the eastern third of the Eurasian landmass between Russia, mainland Southeast Asia, the Indian subcontinent, and Central Asia. Its more than 9,000-mile-long coastline abuts the Yellow, East, and South China seas. China is a country of deep geographic divisions. Most fundamental is the split between its fertile eastern lowlands and the arid sparsely populated highlands that enclose the lowlands like a shell.
More than a billion people live in the ethnic Han Chinese core, making it one of the most densely populated places on earth. Traditionally, threats to China's hand core originated in the borderlands. To guard against overland invasion, successive Chinese rulers have sought to push the core's borders outward, integrating the highlands as strategic buffer zones. These zones form a shield protecting and containing the core. To be secure, China must control the buffer regions, but maintaining control of the regions in turn requires a strong and united core.
And that means overcoming immense internal divisions, not only between northern and southern regions orbiting the Yellow and Yangtze rivers, but also between smaller regional units, each with its own geography, history, dialect and interests.
Chinese history is defined by cycles of unity and fragmentation from periods when a strong Han core captures and holds the surrounding buffers to those. When a weak core breaks into its constituent parts, loses internal coherence and cedes control of the borderlands.
This pattern rooted in China's geography has played out with remarkable consistency. By comparison, China's maritime interests have remained mostly limited to coastal waters. Today, however, growing international trade and rising Chinese reliance on overseas resources threatened to alter the pattern, adding a new maritime dimension to the struggle for buffer space, and potentially upending the longstanding dynamics of China's geographic challenge.
RANE (Risk Assistance Network + Exchange), is a global risk intelligence company that provides risk and security professionals with access to critical insights, analysis and support, enabling them to better anticipate, monitor and respond to emerging risks and threats. Join the millions who are tapping into the collective wisdom of the world’s largest community of risk and business professionals. For more information about RANE, visit www.ranenetwork.com.