Showing posts with label Google Talks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Google Talks. Show all posts
TED Talks2016.4.28---Danielle Feinberg :神奇的成分帶來皮克斯電影人生
TED Talks2016.4.28---Danielle Feinberg :神奇的成分帶來皮克斯電影人生
發佈日期：2016年4月28日
Danielle Feinberg, Pixar's director of photography, creates stories with soul and wonder using math, science and code. Go behind the scenes of Finding Nemo, Toy Story, Brave, WALL-E and more, and discover how Pixar interweaves art and science to create fantastic worlds where the things you imagine can become real. This talk comes from the PBS special "TED Talks: Science & Wonder.
神奇的成分带来皮克斯电影人生|丹妮尔铁...
丹妮尔范伯格，摄影皮克斯的导演，创建一个具有灵魂的故事和奇迹用数学，科学和代码。去海底总动员，玩具总动员，勇敢，WALL-E多的幕后，并发现皮克斯如何交织的艺术和科学创造梦幻般的世界里，你想象中的东西都可以成为真正的。本讲座来自PBS特殊的“TED演讲：科学奇迹。
==========Google 翻译==========
0:12When I was seven years old,
0:14some well-meaning adult asked me what I wanted to be when I grew up.
0:18Proudly, I said: "An artist."
0:20"No, you don't," he said,
0:22"You can't make a living being an artist!"
0:24My little seven-year-old Picasso dreams were crushed.
0:28But I gathered myself,
0:29went off in search of a new dream,
0:31eventually settling on being a scientist,
0:34perhaps something like the next Albert Einstein.
0:37(Laughter)
0:40I have always loved math and science,
0:42later, coding.
0:43And so I decided to study computer programming in college.
0:47In my junior year,
0:48my computer graphics professor showed us these wonderful short films.
0:52It was the first computer animation any of us had ever seen.
0:56I watched these films in wonder, transfixed,
0:59fireworks going off in my head,
1:01thinking, "That is what I want to do with my life."
1:05The idea that all the math, science and code I had been learning
1:08could come together to create these worlds and characters
1:11and stories I connected with,
1:13was pure magic for me.
1:16Just two years later, I started working
1:18at the place that made those films, Pixar Animation Studios.
1:21It was here I learned how we actually execute those films.
1:24To create our movies,
1:25we create a three-dimensional world inside the computer.
1:28We start with a point that makes a line that makes a face
1:32that creates characters,
1:34or trees and rocks that eventually become a forest.
1:37And because it's a three-dimensional world,
1:39we can move a camera around inside that world.
1:43I was fascinated by all of it.
1:45But then I got my first taste of lighting.
1:48Lighting in practice is placing lights inside this three-dimensional world.
1:52I actually have icons of lights I move around in there.
1:54Here you can see I've added a light,
1:56I'm turning on the rough version of lighting in our software,
1:59turn on shadows
2:00and placing the light.
2:02As I place a light,
2:03I think about what it might look like in real life,
2:06but balance that out with what we need artistically and for the story.
2:10So it might look like this at first,
2:14but as we adjust this and move that
2:16in weeks of work,
2:18in rough form it might look like this,
2:21and in final form, like this.
2:28There's this moment in lighting that made me fall utterly in love with it.
2:32It's where we go from this
2:34to this.
2:36It's the moment where all the pieces come together,
2:38and suddenly the world comes to life
2:41as if it's an actual place that exists.
2:44This moment never gets old,
2:45especially for that little seven-year-old girl that wanted to be an artist.
2:49As I learned to light,
2:50I learned about using light to help tell story,
2:54to set the time of day,
2:57to create the mood,
2:59to guide the audience's eye,
3:02how to make a character look appealing
3:05or stand out in a busy set.
3:08Did you see WALL-E?
3:09(Laughter)
3:10There he is.
3:13As you can see,
3:14we can create any world that we want inside the computer.
3:17We can make a world with monsters,
3:20with robots that fall in love,
3:23we can even make pigs fly.
3:25(Laughter)
3:30While this is an incredible thing,
3:32this untethered artistic freedom,
3:34it can create chaos.
3:36It can create unbelievable worlds,
3:39unbelievable movement,
3:41things that are jarring to the audience.
3:43So to combat this, we tether ourselves with science.
3:46We use science and the world we know
3:48as a backbone,
3:49to ground ourselves in something relatable and recognizable.
3:53"Finding Nemo" is an excellent example of this.
3:56A major portion of the movie takes place underwater.
3:59But how do you make it look underwater?
4:01In early research and development,
4:02we took a clip of underwater footage and recreated it in the computer.
4:06Then we broke it back down
4:08to see which elements make up that underwater look.
4:11One of the most critical elements
4:13was how the light travels through the water.
4:15So we coded up a light that mimics this physics --
4:18first, the visibility of the water,
4:19and then what happens with the color.
4:22Objects close to the eye have their full, rich colors.
4:26As light travels deeper into the water,
4:28we lose the red wavelengths,
4:30then the green wavelengths,
4:31leaving us with blue at the far depths.
4:34In this clip you can see two other important elements.
4:37The first is the surge and swell,
4:39or the invisible underwater current
4:41that pushes the bits of particulate around in the water.
4:44The second is the caustics.
4:46These are the ribbons of light,
4:48like you might see on the bottom of a pool,
4:50that are created when the sun bends through the crests
4:52of the ripples and waves on the ocean's surface.
4:57Here we have the fog beams.
4:58These give us color depth cues,
5:00but also tells which direction is up
5:02in shots where we don't see the water surface.
5:04The other really cool thing you can see here
5:06is that we lit that particulate only with the caustics,
5:10so that as it goes in and out of those ribbons of light,
5:12it appears and disappears,
5:14lending a subtle, magical sparkle to the underwater.
5:18You can see how we're using the science --
5:21the physics of water, light and movement --
5:23to tether that artistic freedom.
5:26But we are not beholden to it.
5:28We considered each of these elements
5:30and which ones had to be scientifically accurate
5:33and which ones we could push and pull to suit the story and the mood.
5:37We realized early on that color was one we had some leeway with.
5:41So here's a traditionally colored underwater scene.
5:44But here, we can take Sydney Harbor and push it fairly green
5:47to suit the sad mood of what's happening.
5:50In this scene, it's really important we see deep into the underwater,
5:53so we understand what the East Australian Current is,
5:56that the turtles are diving into and going on this roller coaster ride.
5:59So we pushed the visibility of the water
6:01well past anything you would ever see in real life.
6:04Because in the end,
6:06we are not trying to recreate the scientifically correct real world,
6:10we're trying to create a believable world,
6:12one the audience can immerse themselves in to experience the story.
6:17We use science to create something wonderful.
6:20We use story and artistic touch to get us to a place of wonder.
6:25This guy, WALL-E, is a great example of that.
6:28He finds beauty in the simplest things.
6:30But when he came in to lighting, we knew we had a big problem.
6:33We got so geeked-out on making WALL-E this convincing robot,
6:37that we made his binoculars practically optically perfect.
6:40(Laughter)
6:43His binoculars are one of the most critical acting devices he has.
6:47He doesn't have a face or even traditional dialogue, for that matter.
6:50So the animators were heavily dependent on the binoculars
6:53to sell his acting and emotions.
6:56We started lighting and we realized
6:58the triple lenses inside his binoculars were a mess of reflections.
7:02He was starting to look glassy-eyed.
7:05(Laughter)
7:06Now, glassy-eyed is a fundamentally awful thing
7:10when you are trying to convince an audience
7:12that a robot has a personality and he's capable of falling in love.
7:16So we went to work on these optically perfect binoculars,
7:20trying to find a solution that would maintain his true robot materials
7:23but solve this reflection problem.
7:26So we started with the lenses.
7:27Here's the flat-front lens,
7:28we have a concave lens
7:30and a convex lens.
7:31And here you see all three together,
7:33showing us all these reflections.
7:36We tried turning them down,
7:37we tried blocking them,
7:39nothing was working.
7:41You can see here,
7:42sometimes we needed something specific reflected in his eyes --
7:46usually Eve.
7:47So we couldn't just use some faked abstract image on the lenses.
7:50So here we have Eve on the first lens,
7:53we put Eve on the second lens,
7:55it's not working.
7:56We turn it down,
7:57it's still not working.
7:59And then we have our eureka moment.
8:01We add a light to WALL-E that accidentally leaks into his eyes.
8:06You can see it light up these gray aperture blades.
8:10Suddenly, those aperture blades are poking through that reflection
8:13the way nothing else has.
8:15Now we recognize WALL-E as having an eye.
8:19As humans we have the white of our eye,
8:22the colored iris
8:23and the black pupil.
8:24Now WALL-E has the black of an eye,
8:28the gray aperture blades
8:29and the black pupil.
8:31Suddenly, WALL-E feels like he has a soul,
8:35like there's a character with emotion inside.
8:40Later in the movie towards the end,
8:41WALL-E loses his personality,
8:43essentially going dead.
8:45This is the perfect time to bring back that glassy-eyed look.
8:49In the next scene, WALL-E comes back to life.
8:52We bring that light back to bring the aperture blades back,
8:55and he returns to that sweet, soulful robot we've come to love.
9:02(Video) WALL-E: Eva?
9:06Danielle Feinberg: There's a beauty in these unexpected moments --
9:09when you find the key to unlocking a robot's soul,
9:13the moment when you discover what you want to do with your life.
9:17The jellyfish in "Finding Nemo" was one of those moments for me.
9:20There are scenes in every movie that struggle to come together.
9:24This was one of those scenes.
9:26The director had a vision for this scene
9:28based on some wonderful footage of jellyfish in the South Pacific.
9:33As we went along,
9:35we were floundering.
9:36The reviews with the director
9:38turned from the normal look-and-feel conversation
9:41into more and more questions about numbers and percentages.
9:46Maybe because unlike normal,
9:47we were basing it on something in real life,
9:50or maybe just because we had lost our way.
9:52But it had become about using our brain without our eyes,
9:55the science without the art.
9:58That scientific tether was strangling the scene.
10:02But even through all the frustrations,
10:04I still believed it could be beautiful.
10:06So when it came in to lighting,
10:08I dug in.
10:10As I worked to balance the blues and the pinks,
10:13the caustics dancing on the jellyfish bells,
10:16the undulating fog beams,
10:18something promising began to appear.
10:21I came in one morning and checked the previous night's work.
10:24And I got excited.
10:26And then I showed it to the lighting director
10:28and she got excited.
10:29Soon, I was showing to the director in a dark room full of 50 people.
10:34In director review,
10:35you hope you might get some nice words,
10:38then you get some notes and fixes, generally.
10:41And then, hopefully, you get a final,
10:43signaling to move on to the next stage.
10:46I gave my intro, and I played the jellyfish scene.
10:50And the director was silent for an uncomfortably long amount of time.
10:55Just long enough for me to think,
10:57"Oh no, this is doomed."
11:00And then he started clapping.
11:03And then the production designer started clapping.
11:06And then the whole room was clapping.
11:14This is the moment that I live for in lighting.
11:17The moment where it all comes together
11:19and we get a world that we can believe in.
11:22We use math, science and code to create these amazing worlds.
11:27We use storytelling and art to bring them to life.
11:30It's this interweaving of art and science
11:34that elevates the world to a place of wonder,
11:38a place with soul,
11:39a place we can believe in,
11:42a place where the things you imagine can become real --
11:47and a world where a girl suddenly realizes
11:50not only is she a scientist,
11:52but also an artist.
11:54Thank you.
11:55(Applause)
0:12当我七岁，
0:14一些好心的大人问我什么，我想是当我长大。
0:18骄傲地说，我说：“一个艺术家。”
0:20 “不，你不这样做，”他说，
0:22 “你不能让生活成为一个艺术家！”
0:24我的小七岁的毕加索梦想被粉碎。
0:28但我自己收集的，
0:29在寻找一个新的梦想去了，
0:31最终解决当一名科学家，
0:34也许是这样的下一个爱因斯坦。
0:37 （笑声）
0:40我一直很喜欢数学和科学，
0:42后来，编码。
0:43所以，我决定学习大学计算机编程。
0:47在我大三的时候，
0:48我的计算机图形学教授向我们展示了这些精彩的短片。
0:52它是第一个电脑动画我们任何人见过。
0:56我看着惊讶这些电影，呆若木鸡，
0:59烟花燃放在我的头上，
1:01想：“这就是我想用我的生命做的。”
1:05所有的数学，科学和代码，我已学习的想法
1:08能走到一起，创建这些世界和人物
1:11和故事，我与连接，
1:13对我来说纯粹的魔法。
1:16仅仅两年后，我开始工作
1:18在，使得这些电影的地方，皮克斯动画工作室。
1:21正是在这里，我学会了如何实际执行这些电影。
1:24为了创建我们的电影，
1:25我们在计算机内部建立一个三维世界。
1:28我们先从一个点，使一个行做了个鬼脸
1:32创建人物，
1:34或树木和岩石，最终变成一片森林。
1:37而且因为它是一个三维的世界，
1:39我们可以解决这个世界里面移动的摄像机。
1:43我被这一切迷住了。
1:45但后来我得到了我的照明的第一口味。
1:48照明在实践中把灯这种三维的世界里面。
1:52其实，我有我的灯光在里面走动的图标。
1:54在这里，你可以看到我已经添加了一盏灯，
1:56我打开我们的软件版本粗糙照明，
1:59打开阴影
2:00和放置的光。
2:02当我把一盏灯，
2:03我想它可能看起来像在现实生活中，
2:06但平衡这一点与我们所需要的艺术和故事。
2:10因此，它可能是这样的，首先，
2:14但我们调整这个移动的
2:16在工作周，
2:18在恶劣的形式，它可能是这样的，
2:21并在最终的形式，像这样。
2:28有这一刻灯光让我在爱全然跌倒它。
2:32这就是我们从这走
2:34此。
2:36这也正是所有的作品走到一起的那一刻，
2:38突然世界来生活
2:41仿佛它是是否存在实际的地方。
2:44这一刻永远不会过时，
2:45特别是对于那些小七岁的女孩想成为一个艺术家。
2:49当我学会了光，
2:50我学习了如何使用光来讲述故事，
2:54设定一天中的时间，
2:57创造意境，
2:59引导观众的眼球，
3:02如何让一个角色的外观吸引力
3:05或在繁忙的集脱颖而出。
3:08你看到WALL-E？
3:09 （笑声）
3:10他在那。
3:13如你看到的，
3:14我们可以创造我们想要在计算机内部任何世界。
3:17我们可以做一个世界的怪物，
3:20与爱上机器人，
3:23我们甚至可以使才怪呢。
3:25 （笑声）
3:30虽然这是一件不可思议的事情，
3:32这种不受限制的艺术自由，
3:34它可以制造混乱。
3:36它可以创造令人难以置信的世界，
3:39令人难以置信的运动，
3:41东西都是不和谐的观众。
3:43因此，要解决这个问题，我们自己拴以科学。
3:46我们用科学和世界，我们知道
3:48作为主干，
3:49到地自己的东西听上去很像和辨认。
3:53 “海底总动员”就是一个很好的例子。
3:56影片的主要部分发生在水下。
3:59但是你如何使它看起来水下？
4:01在早期的研究和开发，
4:02我们采取的水下录像的剪辑，并在计算机重新创建它。
4:06然后，我们把它弄坏了回落
4:08看看哪些元素组成的水下的样子。
4:11一个最关键的要素的
4:13是光在水中是如何漂洋过海。
4:15因此，我们编写了一个光模仿这个物理 -
4:18首先，水的能见度，
4:19然后用什么颜色发生。
4:22靠近眼睛对象有充分，色彩丰富。
4:26由于光速更深的水，
4:28我们失去了红色的波长，
4:30那么绿色波长，
4:31留给我们的蓝色在最深处。
4:34在这个短片，你可以看到其他两个重要元素。
4:37首先是浪涌和膨胀，
4:39或无形的水下电流
4:41是推动颗粒状的比特围绕在水中。
4:44二是焦散。
4:46这些都是轻的丝带，
4:48就像你能在游泳池的底部看到，
4:50当太阳弯曲通过的峰部所创建
4:52的海洋表面的涟漪和波浪。
4:57在这里，我们有雾横梁。
4:58这给我们的色彩深度线索，
5:00但也告诉哪个方向是向上
5:02在射击，我们看不到水面。
5:04你可以在这里看到的其他很酷的事情
5:06是我们点燃的颗粒只与焦散，
5:10这样，当它进入和退出光的那些色带，
5:12它出现和消失，
5:14妆点微妙，神奇火花水下。
5:18你可以看到我们是如何使用科学 -
5:21水，光与运动的物理 -
5:23系绳艺术自由。
5:26但我们不会感激它。
5:28我们认为这些元素
5:30以及哪些必须是科学准确
5:33而哪些我们可以推拉，以适应故事和心情。
5:37我们早就该颜色意识到是一个大家有一些余地用。
5:41所以这里有一个传统的彩色水下的场面。
5:44但在这里，我们可以采取悉尼港，并推动它相当绿色
5:47以适应正在发生的事情的悲伤的情绪。
5:50在这个场景中，这是非常重要的，我们看到深入到水下，
5:53所以我们了解东澳洋流是什么，
5:56该龟潜入，并打算在这坐过山车。
5:59因此，我们推水的能见度
6:01早已过任何东西，你会看不到真实的生活。
6:04因为在最后，
6:06我们是不是要重新创建正确的科学现实世界中，
6:10我们正在努力创造一个可信的世界，
6:12一个观众可以沉浸在自己的体验故事。
6:17我们利用科学创造美好的东西。
6:20我们用故事和艺术感让我们到一个地方的奇迹。
6:25这家伙，WALL-E，就是一个很好的例子。
6:28他发现在最简单的事情美感。
6:30但是，当他进来的灯光，我们知道我们有一个很大的问题。
6:33我们有这么geeked出在制作WALL-E本有说服力的机器人，
6:37我们做了他的望远镜几乎完美的光。
6:40 （笑声）
6:43他的望远镜是他拥有的最关键的演技设备之一。
6:47他不具有面甚至传统对话，对于这个问题。
6:50所以，动画师都严重依赖于望远镜
6:53卖他的演技和情感。
6:56我们开始照明，我们意识到
6:58他的望远镜里的三镜头是反射的一个烂摊子。
7:02他开始寻找目光呆滞。
7:05 （笑声）
7:06现在，目光呆滞是从根本上可怕的事情
7:10当你试图说服观众
7:12该机器人具有个性和他的能力坠入爱河的。
7:16所以我们去对这些光学望远镜完善工作，
7:20试图找到将保持他的真实机器人的材料解决方案
7:23但解决这个问题的反思。
7:26于是我们开始用镜头。
7:27这里的平板前置镜头，
7:28我们有一个凹透镜
7:30和凸透镜。
7:31在这里，你可以看到所有三个人在一起，
7:33我们展示这一切的思考。
7:36我们试图把他们下来，
7:37我们试图阻止他们，
7:39什么也没有工作。
7:41你可以在这里看到，
7:42有时我们需要具体体现在他眼里的东西 -
7:46通常夏娃。
7:47所以我们不能只使用镜片上的一些伪造的抽象形象。
7:50所以在这里，我们有夏娃的第一个镜头，
7:53我们把夏娃第二透镜上，
7:55它不工作。
7:56我们把它记下来，
7:57它仍然没有工作。
7:59然后，我们有我们的灵光一现。
8:01我们增加一个光WALL-E不小心泄露他的眼睛。
8:06你可以看到它照亮这些灰色光圈叶片。
8:10突然，那些光圈叶片是通过反射戳
8:13没有别的办法了。
8:15现在我们认识到WALL-E为具有眼球。
8:19作为人类，我们有我们的眼白，
8:22有色光圈
8:23而黑色的瞳孔。
8:24现在WALL-E有眼睛的黑色，
8:28灰色的光圈叶片
8:29而黑色的瞳孔。
8:31突然，WALL-E觉得他有灵魂，
8:35像有感慨里面的人物。
8:40在电影后朝向端，
8:41 WALL-E失去了自己的个性，
8:43基本上会耗尽。
8:45这是为了带回目光呆滞的样子的最佳时机。
8:49在接下来的情景，WALL-E起死回生。
8:52我们将光回把光圈叶片背面，
8:55并且他回到那甜美，深情的机器人我们来爱。
9:02 （视频）WALL-E：伊娃？
9:06丹妮尔范伯格：有这些意想不到的时刻美容 -
9:09当你发现钥匙解锁机器人的灵魂，
9:13当你发现的那一刻，你想用自己的生命做什么。
9:17在“海底总动员”的水母是那些时刻对我来说之一。
9:20还有在每一个电影场景的努力走到了一起。
9:24这是那些场景之一。
9:26导演有一个梦想，这个场景
9:28基于水母在南太平洋的一些精彩镜头。
9:33当我们跟着去了，
9:35我们正在挣扎。
9:36与导演的评论
9:38从正常的外观和感觉谈话转向
9:41成左右数字和百分比越来越多的质疑。
9:46也许是因为不像正常的，
9:47我们在现实生活中的东西是基础，
9:50或者仅仅是因为我们失去了我们的方式。
9:52但它已成为使用我们的大脑没有我们的眼睛，
9:55科学没有艺术。
9:58认为科学是束缚扼杀了现场。
10:02但是，即使在所有的挫折，
10:04我仍然相信这可能是美丽的。
10:06因此，当它来到照明，
10:08我挖英寸
10:10至于我的工作是平衡的蓝色和粉红色的，
10:13焦散跳舞海蜇钟声，
10:16起伏的雾梁，
10:18一些有前景开始出现。
10:21我来到一个早晨，并检查了前一天晚上的工作。
10:24我很兴奋。
10:26然后我把它拿给照明董事
10:28她很兴奋。
10:29不久，我展示给导演在黑屋子里充满了50人。
10:34在导演审核，
10:35你希望你可能会得到一些好听的话，
10:38那么你得到一些笔记和修复，一般。
10:41然后，希望你得到一个最终的，
10:43信令来移动到下一个阶段。
10:46我给我介绍，我扮演的水母现场。
10:50和导演沉默令人不安长的时间。
10:55只是足够长的时间，我想，
10:57 “哦，不，这是注定要失败的。”
11:00然后，他开始鼓掌。
11:03然后制作设计师开始鼓掌。
11:06然后整个房间鼓掌。
11:14这是我在照明生活的时刻。
11:17在这一切走到一起的那一刻
11:19我们得到一个世界，我们可以相信的。
11:22我们使用数学，科学和代码来创建这些神奇的世界。
11:27我们用讲故事和艺术带给他们的生活。
11:30正是这种交织的艺术和科学
11:34这提升了世界一个地方的奇迹，
11:38用灵魂的地方，
11:39我们可以相信的地方，
11:42那里的东西，你能想象成为真正的一个地方 -
11:47和一个世界里，一个女孩突然意识到
11:50她不仅是一位科学家，
11:52但也是一个艺术家。
11:54谢谢。
11:55 （掌声）
Talks at Google2016.9.2---Jeremy Miller : 巴菲特的投资基本规则
Talks at Google2016.9.2---Jeremy Miller : 巴菲特的投资基本规则
發佈日期：2016年9月2日
Jeremy Miller reflects on Mr. Buffett's partnership letters and his early investing style. He also discusses why he thinks that Mr. Buffett did the opposite of largely conventionally accepted 'rules' on investing.
About the book: Warren Buffett's Ground Rules Words of Wisdom from the Partnership Letters of the World's Greatest Investor is an "anti-Buffett" checklist for mediocracy in investment, derived from a study of the pre-Berkshire Partnership Letters. Author Jeremy Miller is an investment analyst.
杰里米米勒反映了巴菲特的合伙信件和他早期的投资风格。他还讨论了为什么他认为巴菲特对投资做的主要是传统上公认的“规则”相反。
本书简介：从世界上最伟大投资者的合作伙伴快报智慧巴菲特的基本规则的话说就是一个“反巴菲特”清单中的投资mediocracy，从前期的伯克希尔信合作的一项研究中得出。作者杰里米·米勒是一个投资分析师。
==========Google 翻译==========
0:01we have a very special guest here with us today please join me in welcoming
0:05Jeremy Miller thank you sorry but it's it's really it's a real honor to be here
0:17and and talk about the book and in my experience in in learning from the
0:25process of of studying these letters and and compiling the book you know i'm not
0:33a professional writer I view myself much more as a sort of project manager for
0:39what I saw is something that was being widely neglected by the value community
0:47and the public at large mean everyone knows about Warren Buffett's time at
0:53berkshire hathaway and how successful that's been so you know last year was
0:57the 50th anniversary of of his ascension into the Chairman role of that company
1:03so we have his 50 letters from that . but you know there was also a period
1:09between $MONTH 1956 in 1970 where he was running a partnership largely comprised
1:16of people that he knew in fact the initial investors were family members
1:20and roommates and people from Omaha that he knew folks that he was very close
1:26with and he was writing these letters to them so you can imagine trying to convey
1:32a sense of philosophy in terms of how to think about market covering this you
1:41know 14-year period 33 or so letters compared to the 50 that we've all known
1:49and loved and studied very clear closely you know there's a I just felt like
1:53there was this big swath of wisdom that was being overlooked you know coming
2:00from buffett a time when he was talking to his his family members and he was
2:06running small sums of money so the initial partnership was started with
2:13seven other people a hundred thousand dollars of of their money
2:19a hundred bucks that he threw in on his own and you know he was he also taught a
2:28class at the time so I like this slide because it sort of shows him as the
2:33teacher which which he really he really was so that it was a very productive
2:38time for warren buffett you had a twenty-nine percent compounded annual
2:44rate of return over the 14-year period he never had a down year the markets had
2:51several he never underperformed his you know hehe never underperform the market
2:59right which is just it's just really impressive and there's a quote from 1999
3:07which is obviously you know sort of towards the peak of the the nasdaq where
3:11he said if I was running small sons again today i think i could do a
3:1750-percent compounded annual return he went as far as to say that he guarantees
3:23he could do that so you know there's a lot to be explored here in terms of what
3:30you can do when you truly have a go-anywhere do-anything strategy and
3:34that's very different from you know the position that he finds himself in today
3:39where you know he's sort of saddled with more capital than ideas
3:44this is the time where his ideas far outweighed his capital right so I've
3:52organized this talk in a way that you know I ripped off from from Charlie
3:58Munger who ripped it off from Johnny Carson you know who who may have ripped
4:05it off from Carl Jacoby the famous algebra two had a view that if you
4:12really want to solve a problem one great way to go about it is to invert the
4:16question right think about it backwards so the talk that i put together you know
4:23if you really sound
4:25ways to you know avoid success in investing and then the idea is if you
4:30could just not do these three things and I'll unpack them for you
4:36you know you're going to go a long way in and finding success and so let's get
4:43started
4:44so the first one is about predictions you know we live in a 24-hour news cycle
4:50culture where people that claim themselves to be experts or are more
4:56than happy to get up on TV and hold forth on the outlook for interest rates
5:02oil prices
5:03what's going to happen with breakfast it you know all sort of backed by a wall
5:11street culture that benefits from turn in people's portfolio and you know
5:18Buffett as of you know the first meeting of the partners before even allowed them
5:26to to write the check
5:28you know said to them very specifically I'm not in the business of making
5:32predictions on the general stock market your business fluctuations if you think
5:36that I can do this or it's even necessary you know the partnership is
5:42not for you and I think that this idea
5:46well first of all so so a great way to to turn your net worth into your brokers
5:52current income is to you know trade every whim that you have you think you
5:59know okay I i have a view the you know II you you know europe uh sorry the UK
6:07is gonna to to leave the union right so I'm going to sell the market that's like
6:13a terrible idea right and and the reason for that is because you know it's it
6:19the world is full of radical uncertainty and and there's a lot of things that you
6:23can't predict so i think one of the distinguishing factors about Buffett
6:28from a very early point in his career was that he was very comfortable saying
6:33you know I have
6:35it's ok to have no idea
6:38right and and he'll say that up to today when it comes to interest rates etc it's
6:43not you know it's not about being able to predict everything it's about having
6:50confidence in what you're actually trying to protect and and really the
6:56past being the best source for you know making guesses about what's going to
7:02happen in the future and being long term in the way that you think about it so
7:07that is that is is is is number one the second really great way to destroy your
7:19net worth is to use the market as a source of information as to what you
7:26think of business is worth so yeah you know that the the average investors
7:33experience in the stock market is rather poor right I think we all know that
7:38there's a tendency to you know buy high and sell low and and it's sort of
7:45natural right I guess you know Stanford's got their their first
7:48football game coming up next friday right and so if you go to campus you
7:53know you want to find your way to the stadium the best way to do that is to
7:57sort of follow the crowd that that's not at the natural thing but in the market
8:04you know when when you're in agreement with everybody you know that could be a
8:10really dangerous thing right so i would say the the market
8:18ok so you freaky we back up a bit so if you invest in equity security buy a
8:26stock right i would encourage you to think of that as if you're buying a
8:34proportional share the assets of the company right and you know you should
8:39value that business right and and hopefully you know you're doing it in
8:46the field that you know something about so that you can make an educated
8:50guess as to what that business is worth so if you and I got together and and
8:56bought a dry-cleaning business right and someone walked in one day and said I'll
9:04give you five bucks for this place right you tell them to take a walk but it
9:12certainly won't freak you out right that your dry cleaning business is only worth
9:16five bucks right the same thing is true about the equity markets right you can't
9:23let a a market quote turn from an asset that you can utilize when it's in your
9:30favor to a liability
9:32that's going to you know take you out of the market and so that comes down to two
9:40a concept of what i would think of as true north right so if you can't use the
9:47market to tell you what something is worth you can only use the market as the
9:52price at which you have the option of transacting right then you need to be
9:59able to value the business yourself right and here you have this wonderful
10:02quote that basically says you know being right is not about being in the crowd
10:09being right is not about you know having well respected people agree with you
10:14being right is about putting your facts together right and then reasoning them
10:20through right in a sound logical manner and if you do that consistently over
10:26time right
10:29that's what's going to give you success so I just think again 22 breaks it where
10:36you know all these folks they see the television you know oh my god the
10:40world's going to come to and I mean for us were felled to create the paper on
10:46which wall street wrote reports about you know the implications of bricks it
10:50right
10:51literally I can't imagine I mean I and they all end with the same thing which
10:54is basically i think it's gonna be bad but I really have no idea right that's
10:59the conclusion so you know folks that
11:03that gets scared because of that and I think they get you know it all gets
11:10rather uh accentuated by you know the way it's it's portrayed in the media and
11:17you know ultimately 44 value investors it's about finding great companies
11:22harnessing the power of compound interest you know fidelity had this
11:25great story that I just love the best-performing fidelity counts
11:29according to a big study that they did were of the individuals who forgot that
11:35they had an account right so you know trading is not your friend listening to
11:41the market is not your friend you know try and figure out what you think I a
11:49business is worth right and then worry about your view of its intrinsic value
11:55and how it's changing over time and put the marketing side right one more one
12:00more point I'll make on this that that I really enjoy from from buffets
12:05commentary is that you know risk is oftentimes a quantifiable notion to a
12:14lot of people and buffets not very differently from the almost the very
12:17beginning right risk is not beta right beta beta is the amount by which a stock
12:24squiggles right over a certain period of time right to buff it that's not risk
12:32risk is not knowing what you're doing right so maybe you have the wrong facts
12:39maybe you've thought them through in a way that was internally unsound maybe
12:47something that you didn't consider came into the picture and your hypothesis was
12:53wrong right being wrong is risk not knowing what you don't know is risk
13:01squiggles don't matter when you know your Buffett shoes which is thinking
13:10about companies
13:12divorced of their stock price willing to cheer for them to go lower because you
13:21don't really care you don't have to sell and you're more than happy to buy more
13:24you know but found himself in these positions where he would buy a little
13:30bit and the stock would go down and his intrinsic value estimate then change so
13:35we buy a little more and it would go down and it would do so for years right
13:41and and he didn't need the market to tell me was right it was his own
13:46reasoning that led him to that conclusion
13:50the third thing that I think is a really good way to fail is to play somebody
13:56else's game and you know you you there's going to be times where value investors
14:02feel like they are out of sync with the market and its really hard i think to
14:09stick to your philosophy and your principles when you're in the sort of
14:16speculative froth of of a bull market right so we saw this at the end of of
14:23the partnership era which was as we approach 1970 you were in the and what
14:28they called the go-go phase of the market it was the the conglomerate era
14:34and it it was just predated the Nifty Fifty if people have heard that but but
14:42we couldn't find stuff that made sense for him to invest and so you know he he
14:51returned the capital write the same thing happened in in in in the tech
14:56bubble I mean there was all sorts of articles about how buffeted lost his way
15:00right old fogey is immuno knew too much there was no longer true it's a new era
15:06you know all this stuff and until folks that that nothing to change the market
15:15was overvalued and so for the second time
15:18you know he issued a warning so I i think this is really important to
15:25investors is to really you know figure out what you're all about their spin
15:33some really people that I admire so much come here to speak to you that have very
15:41different approaches and something that I struggle with quite a bit for a few
15:47months actually was thinking about okay we have young Buffett okay in the early
15:52stages he's a lot like Tobias Carlisle was right is pure Graham he's looking
15:57for statistical you know cigar bots that are super cheap out of favor by the end
16:05he's a lot like Tom gayner right where he's got you know the majority of his
16:11funds in american express right they bought Walt Disney so we went from you
16:19know buying Dempster mill which is a windmill implements company on the verge
16:23of bankruptcy to you know high quality businesses that were compounding and
16:30we're compounders in general right and so the question is you know what what
16:34should you do so i was trying to think okay what kind of advice should i be
16:38giving if somebody asked me what what's right and I you know I Tobias got great
16:43statistics you know he's he's got all this map that shows you know his way is
16:49better right but then Tom gainers got you know this great stat on gram which
16:54is that yeah you bought a lot of cigar butts but guess what he made more money
16:57and geico then he made in all those other investments combined so if you
17:01find one great compounder and you make 19 other mistakes you know you're still
17:07bound to do wonderfully well because of the way that compound interest works so
17:12the answer that I came to was that unfortunately it depends what what
17:19should you do it depends on you right
17:22play your game figure out what your circle of confidences you know what what
17:27areas are you interested in and pack
17:29passionate about where you act to be able to have an understanding of of what
17:34a business is worth right and then what is your sort of psychological
17:42disposition to being on this treadmill of cigar butts because you know they
17:50they are a sort of fleeting in their value and you have to be on on constant
17:56search for them which is very different than you know what what Buffett does now
18:03or or or mr. Gaynor does at markel witches you know my great businesses and
18:08sort of sit on your butt right so the other thing i will say before I i close
18:16on this on this topic is that very early in the partnership 1959 1960 Buffett put
18:28thirty-five percent of the funds in a company called Sanborn Mac company which
18:36was a a mapping business used in the insurance field and the market cap at
18:47the time was right around it stated book equity of four and a half million
18:52dollars
18:53ok so the inflation factor being seven or eight you can be thinking you know
18:57you know 35 million dollar market cap now that is a minuscule thing right so
19:05the idea of a following buff it because he bought you know phillips 66 right
19:15that's that might be great but if you're at a position where you can sort of put
19:21the Geiger counter over some of these micro caps you know you should because
19:27you know there's a lot of fertile ground where institutions can't go so you know
19:34just I would just say you know go anywhere do anything don't don't try and
19:40copy anybody you can
19:42you can look to them to see what you like about what they're doing what
19:46resonates with you but like I spire said when he was here you know don't try to
19:53be Warren Buffett try to be the best guy spire try to be the best Jeremy Miller
19:57because you know that's really the only way that you're going to be able to make
20:03it through the tough times when your strategy is is a you know up inevitably
20:10you're gonna come through times where it gets hard so I to invert the inversion
20:18you know you really need to think long term and get yourself away from making
20:22predictions especially short-term predictions you know forget the market
20:28carefully assembled a fact supply sound reasoning come up with your own value
20:33your own view of what something is worth in and be confident in it before you do
20:37anything because if you're not confident in your view you're going to get shaken
20:41out of your position and then third is you know figure out what kind of
20:46investor you are what what what suits you from a temperament perspective and
20:53and play that game don't don't don't play someone else's game so with that I
21:01thought I'd I'd stop and see if there's any questions
21:07yeah so the question is sort of the continuum by which buffett was active
21:13and you know engage with his company's during the partnership reverse today the
21:20fair and and so what I would what I would say
21:23interestingly enough is so you know Buffett came out of Colombia where you
21:29study with graham right and then he begged gram for a couple years for a job
21:34at Graham Newman when he ended up getting one right and and and at Graham
21:40Newman it was very much the way that you described initially the sort of
21:44hands-off approach because Graham had this view that you should be able to
21:47just read the intelligent investor and security analysis
21:51and you know make money and it would be kind of i'm trying to prove that to
21:55people so don't go talk to you know management teams or you know get
22:00one-on-one access to these things and and so forth but then you know as soon
22:06as Buffett started the partnership you know he he moved away from that and what
22:15he did was he had three categories of investing right one was called the
22:19generals these were generally undervalued securities these ultra cheap
22:23cigar bar type things right and then he had workouts which basically just risk
22:29arbitrage you know one company by the other so you bet that the transaction
22:32closes and then the third category was actually born out of the first so the
22:37generals because so for instance i mentioned sanborn maps for a
22:41half-million-dollar market cap right so over time he comes to acquire you know
22:48twenty percent right get together with some other friends gets 40-percent
22:53forces his way onto the board now Sam or map was unique because it had it was at
22:58that Richard had all these securities on its portfolio in its portfolio that it
23:01didn't need it was just making so much money for so long that they bought
23:04stocks bonds the board was comprised of you know people from the insurance
23:09industry that didn't own any shares in the company that in care so if you read
23:14snowball be another story and it is in that you know if he forces his way onto
23:20the board threatens a proxy right doesn't exchange for you know his shares
23:27and in in sanborn maps for the securities portfolio it makes a very
23:30nice return avoid some taxes so back even back then you know he was very
23:37willing to do what it takes to unlock the value if you had to so I kind of
23:45think of that as a him as an activist you know later on he would he would buy
23:53full you know controlling positions and in companies so maybe just one last
24:00point on that I think you might find interesting is that the you know Buffett
24:03seamlessly move
24:04between the world of business and investing right so a portfolio manager
24:08takes a a pile of capital people give them money right that portfolio manager
24:13then selects the best stocks that they can find to earn the highest return
24:17possible
24:18well you know Buffett thinks the same way about a CEO write a CEO has a pile
24:23of capitalists in the form of the assets of the company the working capital of
24:27the company etc you know the cash and says how are we going to deploy these
24:33assets their highest and best use so an alternate approach that maybe something
24:40that your time getting our word proposes just started businesses that are good
24:45quality and buffered has this knack of making everything look very easy but
24:51actually isn't and so maybe instead of doing work buffered in his early yours
24:55just starting businesses and whenever you have a brexit used by those
24:59businesses to hang onto them and obviously you're not going to make
25:01thirty percent annualized returns but for most people you know if you do it
25:06over 30 years I don't need to make thirty percent analyzed to do okay what
25:10do you think of that approach fabulous i think that's a great approach i mean if
25:14if you can identify the field in which you that if you can identify a field of
25:19securities that you think you understand and can value right then you can also
25:23identify the price at which they will offer you the compound of rate of return
25:28that you're after right and that you think maybe you're entitled to so now
25:32what I mean by that is if interest rates are ten percent you know the demand rate
25:37of return that you're going to expect from the from the investment is going to
25:40be higher than what if there are two percent right but if you have a field of
25:45say twenty five businesses that have public equities associated with them
25:49right you can value those businesses and then determine the price at which
25:55they're going to offer you the rate of return that that that you think you need
26:00to to to make the investment i think but always use 15 you know I think now the
26:07size of his capitals drop down closer to 10 but you know if you're not operating
26:13with billions and maybe 15 is the right number
26:16but whatever that is I think that's a that's a that's a great strategy
26:20especially the 22 decided question regarding what you're saying vs I guess
26:27what you call the efficient market theory which is really no individual can
26:32find can actually get more information from the system you know legally than
26:36anybody else and it's all built in $YEAR and in particular people do talk about
26:42how almost nobody can do better than the than the indexes and in of course p
26:49there's to counter examples which is Peter Lynch of Magellan and I warren
26:54buffett of course and and then people say well Warren Buffett he's you can't
26:58really count him because he actually goes and like you said gets on the
27:02boards and helps manage the company so he he personally takes up a role in
27:07making the company successful which obviously most of us can do and then
27:11Peter Peter Lynch he had a very strong run but then once he got out of Magellan
27:16and start predicting stocks kind of his private his private portfolio actually
27:20didn't beat the market so so even in I say all of us here we work at Google and
27:26yet even we and so if we think we probably not something about the
27:29internet business and whatnot and even i think most of us are pretty astounded by
27:33the way Google is performed and continues to perform in and even I'm
27:37here for many years I have no idea what's going to happen in the internet
27:42business and I you know sales and advertising market and so forth so i'm
27:47not sure how I would even apply the things that you're saying personally
27:51even being in the business that I'm in short so let me try to unpack that a
27:57little bit so you know buffets best a bottle to efficient market theory is is
28:06a speech that he gave called the super investors of Grandma novel where he
28:10played out a scenario of national coin flipping contest where everybody flipped
28:16the coin and you know the iterations went daily until there were you know 20
28:21or so left and said that wouldn't be wouldn't be awful weird if if all 20 you
28:27know came from the same
28:28town right and and then he outlined the results of what he called the super
28:34investors of Grandma dodgeville which were basically a collection of people
28:38that studied under gram or were heavily influenced by you know his teachings i
28:46will say that during the partnership years there was no index investing right
28:53that hadn't been invented yet but even then buff it was making the case that if
29:00you can't outperform the market the index that the the the general results
29:08of the dow jones which is what was you know the primary want to Sesame today
29:13then you know you she should shouldn't be investing actively right you it is
29:21the onus of of the active investor to outperform and those who can't
29:25outperform are are are doing a disservice to their investors you know
29:34by being by being active right in terms of how you personally can go about
29:43taking on a value approach would be to do one exactly what you started with
29:51which is reject things that you don't think that you can really have a strong
30:00view on in terms of how the future is going to unfold you know it may be very
30:05different then perhaps you know buying it a dry cleaner that has an advantage
30:14position next to the train station you know in in the town that in the
30:19community town and in whatever XYZ America right so looking at the stocks
30:28as businesses i think is is the best way to do it when you when you have a strong
30:33view of what those businesses are worth and you're presented with prices in the
30:38market that are different than that
30:40but that's the essence of it and and what those will be will be dependent on
30:46you know your own circle of competence with what you know and and are capable
30:51of value and structures is a lot when you start to think about it we were
30:56talking a little looser you were alluding to it I think before you began
31:00the talk and I wasn't for the benefit of the audience here you know in doing such
31:05a deep study of his early years what about things that stood out to you in
31:11terms of you know things that have impacted you at a personal level not
31:16just an interesting but maybe you know in any aspect and and if that question
31:21were put to you what would stand out to you the the way that buffett what about
31:27structuring the partnership communicating to his investors was sort
31:36of high-class from the very beginning you know there's a lot of integrity and
31:42it really shines through the letters that that would be one thing but from a
31:46practical perspective in terms of what what really changed the way that I think
31:53about investing as as a participant would be this idea of of business as a
32:01pup is a pile of capital right so look to see where the assets are right what's
32:08the sort of return that's being generated on those assets are they
32:13optimized right look at the businesses if you own the whole thing right even
32:18though when you buy the security you buy your proportional share you know what is
32:22the whole thing worth right you got yahoo finance to look at a company
32:27don't look at the share price right look at the market cap right what's the whole
32:31business worth right and then you know if I buy my fraction of the business you
32:39know my getting it a discount or am I overpaying so you know the fungibility
32:46the capital that the the idea that you know business
32:52and investing is sort of very much that the the difference between the two is is
33:00sort of false in a way and then I guess the other thing would be to think
33:05long-term
33:07ok so compound interest requires patience
33:10it doesn't really kick in until Slyke 67 years depending on the rate right but
33:17once it once it goes it's the most powerful force there is that's why
33:22Buffett used to joke that is haircuts are costing them 200 grand apiece right
33:27because if he had forgone the haircut and put the money in the fund you know
33:32you said 200 granted when I do the math I came to like two million but the other
33:36points the same i've found it very hard to reconcile of to a buffered scenes and
33:42I think you have 21 today which is if I were managing 10 million dollars so you
33:47know I could I think I could make fifty percent of nevermind i think i can get
33:51into you right yeah and then I think after he started butcher happy as a
33:56public company he's kept on emphasizing it's far better to buy a wonderful
34:01business at a fair place and a fair business at a wonderful place right and
34:05he goes on to say there's never just one cockroach in the kitchen and but buying
34:10books at xn minus was one of the worst mistakes he's ever made in his life so I
34:15found these hard to reconcile i'm sure you've thought about this i like your
34:19thoughts on me
34:20yeah well you know Charlie Munger the vice-chair of Berkshire was asked a
34:26similar question and his answer was it turned out we could buy great businesses
34:32and you know it only cost us a couple points of compounding year and and what
34:38a better life right so you know I think about this Sanborn situation all the
34:47time because it was such a small company right i mean you could almost envision a
34:54group of of individuals right getting a controlling stake in the company that
35:00had a market cap of 5 million
35:0210 million dollars i mean that could happen today
35:06right that's what he was doing right so you know I think if you saying okay if I
35:11had a couple million bucks you know I could find these companies maybe they
35:15have a five-million-dollar market cat right maybe they just need to be shut
35:19down or maybe they need to be sold or moving you know but you could you could
35:22engineer these type of of returns
35:25I think that's what he means but for for the lifestyle that he wanted to live
35:33right if you want to have a diary with your weekly schedule that you know is
35:38blank except for like thursday at two haircut right compounders is a really a
35:45good way to do it you know he made a much better return a company called
35:48Dempster mill which he liquidated effectively right and then be
35:54incorporated to avoid tax and he made a great return on that but you know the
36:00town of Beatrice Nebraska had headlines about Buffett the liquidator you know
36:05all the time and that's not easy you know any panacea in terms of how you
36:10want to live your life and can be seen so once he was already rich i think he
36:16sort of latched onto this idea even though wasn't maybe the the optimal from
36:23a return perspective
36:24oh I Christ saw paper and a quarter up at the office which is attributed a
36:32little part of the above it is successful return to his laboratory in
36:37the portfolio mainly through a coincidence float
36:41I wonder do not like a how much revolutionary in its early portfolio
36:46yeah so are the the leverage that he used was only in the workouts so within
36:54the murder ARB business right company anybody's going to be you know if it
36:59goes through there's this spread
37:01usually you know it's a couple percentage points but you know that the
37:05window is short so you know if you annualize that it gets to like you know
37:10six or seven but then if you put you know three turns of leverage on it
37:15and you're looking at 18 or whatever something along those lines so you know
37:19when when he was doing those types of things and had high degree of certainty
37:24that they would actually close and you know he didn't sort of sporadically a
37:29lot of a lot of you know these murder our shops to a ton of these deals but he
37:35did you know a few years me like that is really confident and you know he would
37:39leverage those but but the rest of the portfolio's was on leopard you spend a
37:45lot of time are alluded to buffett scale sort of as a manager whether it's
37:49through special situations sort of like that workouts and a lot of you can gain
37:53outsized returns from that but i was wondering how you respond to and rain
37:57for seen some of the other people AQR wrote a paper a few years ago trying
38:02discussing them sort of where does a buffered performance come from where
38:06that white weather like why he had a 0.76 alpha why exactly was able to gain
38:11such a high returns at home at a relatively low volatility and so they
38:16had done the analysis and so they looked one that is skills like a stock
38:20selection and to his skill as a manager in these type of situations and he
38:25concluded that it was due to it was actually the the former his stock
38:29selection ability whether it was being able to pick low beta stocks of
38:33companies with uh just who had high quality is very consistent growth hype a
38:38payout ratios rather than his ability as a manager to manage like private
38:42companies to navigate corporate restructuring and such and maybe even
38:46believe they send a lot they also attributed partly choose a high leverage
38:50as a leverage of 1.6 21 and so this is calculated leverage as own assets minus
38:55excess cash / equity rather than how you did it with I think the user your
38:59matching like three turns right and that's using it as a multiple and so are
39:03you
39:03this is so basically that the central point is that they did a statistical
39:06analysis and able to account for like his highland
39:09alpha due to his ability as a stock selection rather than his ability to
39:14actually have somebody like that workout summer job or any of these other yeah I
39:19guess marks yeah that's no okay yeah great great question and you know just
39:24to be clear when we talk about leverage we're talking about it on the same basis
39:28right so the amount of assets that it's being controlled by a given amount of
39:33equity right so we've got a six percent return and we leveraged three times that
39:39means we're controlling three times as much assets with a given amount of
39:42equity right and that's what gives you your you're eighteen percent and you
39:48know that there's there wasn't a lot of risk ARB in the Berkshire years there
39:53are some you know he wrote about it and in the seventies but you're the main
39:59thrust of your point is absolutely accurate right i mean the qualities of
40:03the businesses that he has been involved then have been rather consistent over
40:10time you know its financials it's it's branded consumer companies and others
40:16where he feels like he has a view on what the business is likely to earn ten
40:23years from now with not a lot of will or i should say we with what he thinks is a
40:29high degree of certainty that he can know what the business is gonna look
40:33like in the future and and so those kind of things have factors associated with
40:38them so whether its volatility or you know the the actual underlying
40:45volatility of the business itself etc and then the leverage factors is a huge
40:52piece right because not only that he have leverage from the float of the
40:59insurance company which by the way was was purchased for Berkshire where well
41:04it was a portfolio holding up the partnership but also through the
41:09leverage of the deferred tax liability associated with the unrealized capital
41:15gains on the securities portfolio so you know we can talk about you know profit
41:23and avoiding leverage but really what he's talking about is leverage that has
41:29a due date or leverage that has a coupon associated with a principal payment so
41:34an interest payment associated with it so you know float when under written
41:41properly tends to come for perjured at a near free costs and of course the the
41:49first tax liabilities don't bear interest either so I think you're right
41:53but I would also say that you know i think it's it's easy not easy but you
42:00know it you can do the statistical analysis and and run the regressions and
42:05see what the factors were that led to the success that's a there's a there's a
42:11reason why you know there's one more buff it right so I don't know if I would
42:18necessarily think that we could just do a quantum model and replicate Buffett if
42:23we started today with the same factors as well so it's a part of the argument
42:28is it's not like that the private companies are sold sorry sorry let me
42:32address that ok so i agree with you there as well and and I don't think
42:36Buffett want to ever get active right nor did he think it was his skillset to
42:41get active I don't think today he wants to be active you know that managers
42:46don't call you know into Buffett once a month to give the numbers and say you
42:51know here's what i'm doing what do you think about this is ok well you should
42:55get your working capital down or you got too many fixed assets or whatever he
42:58says you know giving great managers and then let them run their business right
43:03and and that's sort of his MO now right so he's not really claiming to be you
43:09know a great cast iron forger so he's gonna buy precision castparts you know
43:16the most recent theory that 40 billion dollars are so you know it's not that he
43:21bought the manager and the company so I think he has a lot more to say about how
43:27the capital gets allocated that
43:29businesses run and that's really where he had the value you look from the
43:33sixties to the late nineties i mean majority of the returns came from a
43:39handful of business american express in the sixties and then sees candies
43:44coca-cola american express again and primarily here
43:51the reason being that we are very concentrated back American Express was
43:56some thirty forty percent and coke was I think or twenty percent of the capital
44:02and and when and geico also was a pretty significant but so when he made these
44:08investments they were out of favour and here the differentiated view and the
44:14differentiated you came from
44:16he doing is cutting back on these companies that gave him these kind of
44:21differentiated point of view about the security i like the best and American
44:26Express event around and did all the scattered about you
44:28so my point being is from those lessons seems like concentration scuttlebutt if
44:36I am going to be a stock picker are important
44:39what are lessons from there that we can do today
44:42apply if I'm in active investing picking stocks and I you know if concentrated is
44:47the vehicle the counter just to complete the sentences the counter being lots of
44:53hedge funds start that they had a differentiated point of view and the
44:56ball in valiant and it was a concentrated but it could always go the
45:00other way and killed decades of confounding yeah absolutely love that
45:06question right so sequoia funds right taking down effectively reputation was
45:11dismantled by value was created because buffets partnership closed right the
45:16investors who wanted to maintain their exposure the equity market even though
45:20buff it was recommending that they didn't do that he gave them the option
45:24bill ron was there with started sequoia for the partnership right so that people
45:32who wanted to stand could write basically following this same strategy
45:38which is sort of like a
45:39it's like an Icarus strategy right i mean you're flying awful close to the
45:46Sun it improves the returns you for your questions for her friend it very well
45:50you know part of the reason for the success was he was concentrated in the
45:56right stuff right
45:59part of the reason for you know the downfall of the sequoia funds was that
46:04they were concentrated in the wrong stuff right so you know it works really
46:11well as long as you you know you don't make the mistake I guess is the point so
46:15the degree to which you have the confidence in what you're doing should
46:21determine the degree of concentration that you're willing to accept because if
46:26it goes wrong it's going to go horribly wrong if you're concentrated and it's it
46:30you know it it's recoverable Jeremy even when I was asking you you know leading
46:36to the same issue earlier you mentioned a brilliant of Ben Graham court about
46:40Warren Buffett oh right yeah so so Graham was asked about what Buffett had
46:51become in terms of his quality compound or strategy and he said I can understand
46:58why you're doing it but it's harder right so i think that's for everybody to
47:06decide on their own whether you know they find it to be in their nature to be
47:11more like buffett of 25 26 27 years older or more like you know muffin at
47:20age 40 or age 84 like he is today
47:23thank you so much once again for being with us here today this was
0:01我们有一个非常特殊的客人在我们这里今天请和我一起欢迎
0:05杰里米米勒谢谢抱歉，但它是它真的是一个真正的荣幸来到这里，
0:17并谈谈这本书，在我的经验中，从学习
0:25研究的这些信件，并和编译本书的过程中，你知道我不是
0:33一个专业作家我认为自己更作为一种项目经理为
0:39我所看到的东西，正在广受社会各界的价值被忽视
0:47在大的平均每个人在公众了解巴菲特的时间
0:53伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司如何成功，一直让你知道，去年是
0:57他提升50周年之际成为该公司董事长作用
1:03因此，我们有他从50个字母。但是你知道也有一段时间
1:09 $ MONTH 1956年至1970年间，他被运行在很大程度上由合作伙伴关系
1:16那他其实知道的人最初的投资者家庭成员
1:20和室友和人民奥马哈，他知道人们说，他是非常接近
1:26与他在写这些信给他们，让你可以想像试图传达
1:32哲学在如何思考市场覆盖这方面你的感觉
1:41知道14年期限33左右的信件相比50那我们都知
1:49和喜爱并研究了很清楚的观察，你知道有一个我只是觉得
1:53有被被忽视你知道未来的智慧这个大大片
2:00从巴菲特的时候，他说他的家人和他
2:06运行小额金钱所以最初的伙伴关系开始
2:13其他七人一十万美元的钱
2:19一百块钱，他扔在他自己的，你知道他他也教了
2:28类的时间，所以我喜欢这张幻灯片，因为这类型的显示他作为
2:33老师这其中他真的，他真的是如此，这是一个非常有成效
2:38时间沃伦·巴菲特，你有29％的复合年增长率
2:44收益比14年期利率，他从未有过的同比下降，市场有
2:51一些他从来没有跑输大市，你知道他的赫赫永远跑输大市
2:59右这只是它真的很令人印象深刻，有报价1999
3:07这显然是你知道那种对纳斯达克在那里高峰
3:11他说，如果我今天又跑小儿子我想我可以做一个
3:17 50％的复合年度回报他去尽可能地说，他保证
3:23他能做到这一点，所以你知道有很多是在哪些方面探讨了在这里
3:30你可以做，当你真正拥有一个去任何地方做，什么战略，
3:34这是非常不同的，你知道，他发现自己在今天的位置
3:39在那里，你知道他是那种背负着多思路资本
3:44这就是他的思想远远超过了他的资本权利，使我有时间
3:52组织了，你知道我是从扯下查理的方式这次谈话
3:58芒格谁从强尼·卡森撕开它关闭，你知道谁谁可能撕开
4:05从卡尔·雅各比在著名的代数二过一个观点，如果你
4:12真正要解决问题的一个很好的方式去了解它是反转
4:16问题的权利向后想想，这样我放在一起，你知道谈话
4:23如果你真的声音
4:25方式你知道避免投资的成功，然后的想法是，如果你
4:30可能只是不能做这三样东西，我会解开他们为你
4:36你知道你要去一个很长的路，寻找成功，让我们开始
4:43开始
4:44所以第一个是关于你知道我们住在一个24小时的新闻周期预测
4:50文化里的人声称自己是专家或更
4:56非常高兴获得在电视上反复按住利率前景
5:02油价
5:03这是怎么回事你知道一堵墙的所有类型的支持早餐它发生
5:11街头文化，从转在人们的投资组合的好处，你知道
5:18巴菲特的你知道的合作伙伴第一次会议之前，甚至允许他们
5:26以写检查
5:28你知道他们说的很明确，我不是在做业务
5:32一般股市的预测，如果你认为你的业务波动
5:36我能做到这一点，或者它甚至需要你知道的伙伴关系
5:42不是你，我认为这个想法
5:46那么首先让这样一个伟大的方式把你的净值到您的经纪人
5:52目前的收入是你知道交易的每一个奇思妙想，你有你认为你
5:59知道好吧，我有我的，你知道II期，你要知道欧洲呃不好意思英国
6:07是要去要留权，所以我打算卖掉这跟市场结合
6:13一个可怕的想法权利，以及其原因是因为你知道这是它
6:19这个世界充满了不确定性激进的和这里面的很多东西，你
6:23无法预测，所以我想巴菲特的显着因素之一
6:28在他的职业生涯一个非常早期的一点是，他是很舒服的说
6:33你知道我有
6:35它的确定也没办法
6:38右，他会说，到今天为止，当谈到利率等是
6:43你不知道它是不是能够预测的一切这是关于有
6:50信任你实际上要保护和真正的
6:56过去是最好的来源，你知道做什么的去猜测
7:02发生在你想想这样的未来，是长期在路上
7:07这是是是是第一位的摧毁第二真正伟大的方式，你的
7:19净资产是利用市场的信息来源，以你
7:26认为企业是值得所以是的，你知道，一般的投资者
7:33在股市的经验是正确的比较差我想大家都知道，
7:38有一种倾向，你知道买高卖低，和它的排序
7:45自然权利我想你知道斯坦福得到了他们的第一次
7:48足球比赛即将到来在下周五权利，所以如果你去你的校园
7:53知道你要找到自己的方式去球场做的是最好的办法
7:57那种随波逐流的，这不是在自然的事情，但在市场上
8:04你知道什么时候，当你在大家同意是你知道这可能是一个
8:10真正危险的事的权利，所以我会说，市场
8:18确定这样你的任性，我们备份了一点，所以，如果你投资于股权证券买
8:26股权我会鼓励你，如果你买一个想到的
8:34分成比例的公司权利的资产，你知道你应该
8:39价值，企业权利，并且希望你知道你这样做是在
8:46你知道一些，这样就可以使一个受过教育领域
8:50猜测至于什么业务价值，所以如果你和我聚在一起，和
8:56买了一台干洗业务的权利，并在有一天，有人走了进来，说我会
9:04给你五块钱对这个地方的权利，你告诉他们散步，但它
9:12肯定不会吓坏你的权利，你的干洗店是唯一值得
9:16权五块钱一样的东西是关于股市真正的权利，你不能
9:23让从资产AA市场报价轮，当它在你的，你可以利用
9:30赞成一个责任
9:32那将你知道带你离开了市场，并让归结起来有两条
9:40什么，我会觉得是正北权，所以如果你不能用一个概念
9:47市场告诉你什么东西是值得你只能使用以市场为
9:52在你有进行交易的选择权，那么你需要将价格
9:59能够珍惜自己的商业权利，在这里你有这个美好的
10:02报价，基本上说，你知道是正确的是不是在人群中被
10:09是权利不是你知道有受人尊敬的人同意你的看法
10:14作为右边是关于把你的事实一起右侧，然后他们的推理
10:20通过正确的在一个健全的合乎逻辑的方式，如果你这样做了持续
10:26正确的时间
10:29这是发生了什么事情给你的成功，所以我只是想再次突破22，其中它
10:36你知道所有这些人，他们看电视你知道噢，我的上帝
10:40世界要来，我对我们意味着被砍伐到上创建的文件
10:46其中华尔街写报告关于你知道砖的影响它
10:50对
10:51从字面上我不能想象我的意思是，他们都与结束同样的事情哪
10:54基本上我认为这会是坏，但我真的不知道正确的是
10:59结论所以你知道乡亲
11:03那得害怕，因为那和我认为他们让你知道这一切变得
11:10而由呃加剧你知道这就是它的媒体描绘的方式，
11:17你知道最终44的价值投资者是要找到伟大的公司
11:22利用复利的力量，你知道的保真度有这个
11:25伟大的故事，我只是喜欢表现最好的保真度计数
11:29根据大的研究，他们确实是谁忘了那个人的
11:35他们有一个帐户的权利，所以你知道交易是不是你的朋友听
11:41市场是不是你的朋友，你知道试图找出你的想法我一个
11:49企业是值得右侧，然后担心你其内在价值的看法
11:55和它是如何随时间变化，并把营销方面的权利再多一次
12:00还有一点我会在这一点，我真的从自助餐享受
12:05评论是，你知道风险是经常一个量化的概念来一个
12:14很多人都和自助餐不是很不同于相差很
12:17开始右风险是不是beta公测权公测的金额由股票
12:24波浪线就在时间权在一定期限内抛光器，这不是风险
12:32风险是不知道自己在做什么的权利，所以也许你打错事实
12:39也许你认为他们通过的方式，是不健全的内部可能
12:47的东西，你没有考虑进了画面，你的假设是
12:53是非犯错的风险不知道你不知道什么是风险
13:01当你知道你的鞋子巴菲特是想花体并不重要
13:10关于公司
13:12他们离婚股价愿意来为他们加油去低，因为你
13:21真的不关心你没有卖，你就乐意多买多
13:24你知道，但发现自己在这些位置上，他会买一点点
13:30位和股价将大大下降，他的内在价值估计再改变，因此
13:35我们买的多一点，这将大大下降，这将多年权这样做
13:41而他并不需要市场来告诉我是正确的，这是他自己
13:46推理使他得出这个结论
13:50我认为第三件事是失败的一个很好的办法就是打别人
13:56其他的比赛，你知道你有你的将是时间的价值投资者，其中
14:02觉得他们是与市场同步，并且它真的很难，我认为到
14:09坚持你的理念，你的原则，当你在那种很
14:16一个牛市的投机泡沫权，所以我们看到这个在年底
14:23这是合作的时代当我们接近1970年你在什么
14:28他们所谓的市场去去阶段，它是砾岩时代
14:34而且这只是早于漂亮50，如果人都听说，但却
14:42我们找不到的东西，是合情合理的他投资，所以你知道他，他
14:51返回首都写同样的事情发生在在高科技
14:56泡我的意思是有如何的冲击迷了路的各种文章
15:00正确的老顽固是免疫知道得太多了不再有真正的这是一个新的时代
15:06你知道这一切的东西，直到乡亲，没有什么改变市场
15:15被高估，因此第二次
15:18你知道他发出警告，所以我我觉得这是非常重要的
15:25投资者是，你要知道弄清楚你是什么都对他们的旋
15:33我很佩服这么多来这里还真有些人对你说话有很
15:41不同的方法和我有相当多的挣扎了几事
15:47其实几个月还想着没关系，我们有年轻的巴菲特在早期好吗
15:52阶段他是一个很像托比亚斯卡莱尔是正确的是纯粹的格雷厄姆，他在寻找
15:57统计你知道雪茄机器人，通过年底的超低价失宠
16:05他是一个很像汤姆gayner身在何方他有你知道他的大部分
16:11在他们买了迪斯尼美国运通权的资金，所以我们从你去
16:19知道买登普斯特磨这是一个风车实现公司濒临
16:23破产你知道高质量的商家认为是复利和
16:30我们在一般权利复合机和所以，问题是你知道什么是什么
16:34你应该这样做，我试图想好吧，我应该是什么样的忠告
16:38给人如果有人问我，什么是正确的，我知道我托比亚斯得到了很大的
16:43统计你知道他是他有这一切的地图，显示你知道他的方法是
16:49更好的权利，但随后汤姆涨幅居前把你知道克这个伟大统计哪些
16:54是，是的，你买了很多雪茄的烟头，但猜测他做了更多的钱
16:57和GEICO后来他在所有其他投资组合，所以如果让你
17:01找到一个伟大的混配和你做其他的19错误，你知道你还在
17:07势必会做，因为这样奇妙清楚，复利工程，以便
17:12我来到答案是，不幸的是它取决于什么什么
17:19你应该做它取决于你的权利
17:22玩你的游戏人物了，你知道你的知心圈什么什么
17:27领域是你感兴趣的，包
17:29热衷于在那里你采取行动，能够有一个了解什么
17:34一个企业是值得权利，那么什么是你的心理排序
17:42处置是在这个跑步机雪茄的烟头，因为你知道他们
17:50他们是一种在它们的价值稍纵即逝，你必须要对不断
17:56寻找他们，这是非常不同的比你知道的巴菲特现在做什么
18:03或或或先生。盖纳在做巫婆马克尔你知道我的大企业和
18:08那种坐在你的屁股权利，使其他的事情，我会说我之前我关闭
18:16在这个关于这个话题，在1959年的合作伙伴关系1960年巴菲特放很早
18:28在公司资金的35％的所谓桑伯恩苹果公司，
18:36在保险领域使用AA映射业务和市值在
18:47时间是正确周围指出四本书股权和半百万
18:52美元
18:53确定，所以通货膨胀因素是七，八，你可想你知道
18:57你知道3500万美元的市值现在是微不足道的东西吧等等
19:05随后的BUFF的想法，因为他买你知道菲利普斯66右
19:15这可能是伟大的，但如果你在一个位置，你可以排序的放
19:21在盖革计数器上有些微帽，你知道你应该因为
19:27你知道有很多的沃土，其中机构不能去，所以你知道
19:34只是我只想说你也知道去任何地方，做任何事情，没有不尝试
19:40复制任何人可以
19:42你可以看一下他们看你喜欢什么关于他们在做什么什么
19:46与你产生共鸣，但像他在这里我说的尖顶你知道不要尝试
19:53被巴菲特尽量做到最好的家伙塔尖尽量做到最好杰里米米勒
19:57因为你知道这是真的，你要能够做出的唯一途径
20:03它通过当你的策略是艰难的时刻，是你知道了不可避免
20:10你会来通过多次地方变得很辛苦，所以我要反反转
20:18你知道你真的需要考虑长期的和做让自己走
20:22预测尤其是你知道的短期预测忘记市场
20:28精心装配的事实供应音推理拿出你自己的价值
20:33你自己是什么东西的看法是在价值和有信心在里面你做之前，
20:37任何东西，因为如果你不相信在你看来，你会得到动摇
20:41您的位置，然后第三个是你知道弄清楚什么样的
20:46投资者你是什么什么什么，从一个角度的气质适合你
20:53和玩这种游戏没有不不玩别人的游戏，所以与我
21:01以为我会我会停下来，看看是否有任何问题
21:07是啊所以问题是排序巴菲特活跃的统一体
21:13你知道合伙扭转今天在与他的公司的参与
21:20公平，所以我会什么，我会说
21:23有趣的是，让你知道巴菲特出来哥伦比亚，你的
21:29格雷厄姆正确的学习，然后他恳求克为一对夫妇年工作
21:34在格雷厄姆 - 纽曼，当他最终得到一个正确的和和和格雷厄姆
21:40纽曼这是非常多，你所描述最初的排序方式
21:44放手的方法，因为格雷厄姆有这种看法，你应该能够
21:47刚看完明智的投资者和安全分析
21:51你知道赚钱，这将是一种我想要证明给
21:55这样的人你知道管理团队不要去谈话或你认识的获取
22:00单对单访问这些东西，等等，但是，你一旦知道
22:06巴菲特开始了合作伙伴关系，你知道他，他搬到从什么走
22:15他所做的是他有三类投资合适的人被称为
22:19这些将领普遍低估的证券这些超低价
22:23雪茄吧类型正确的事情，然后他的训练基本上只是风险
22:29套利你知道一家公司被其他让你打赌，交易
22:32关闭，然后第三类实际上出生出第一所以
22:37将军因为这么比如我提到桑伯恩地图一
22:41五十万美元的市值权等过段时间他来收购你知道
22:48百分之二十的权利与其他一些朋友聚会得到40％的
22:53迫使他的方式到该板萨姆或地图是独一无二的，因为它有它是在
22:58理查德对投资组合所有这些证券在其投资组合，它
23:01并不需要它只是做了这么多钱了这么久，他们买
23:04股票债券的董事会由你知道从保险人
23:09未持有任何公司的股份，在照顾，所以如果你阅读产业
23:14雪球是另一个故事，这是在你知道，如果他强迫他的方式到
23:20董事会威胁的代理权并没有换来你知道他的股份
23:27而在对证券组合桑伯恩地图这让人很
23:30不错的回报避免一些税收等回到即使当时你知道他很
23:37愿意做什么需要解锁值，如果你必须让我有种
23:45认为，作为一个他称为活动家你以后知道他，他会买
23:53满你知道控股地位，并在公司，所以也许只是一个最后
24:00点上，我认为你可能会发现有趣的是，你知道巴菲特
24:03无缝切换
24:04世界商业和投资的权利，使投资组合经理之间
24:08采用AA一堆资本的人给他们钱正确的投资组合经理
24:13然后选择最好的股票，他们可以找到赚取回报率最高
24:17可能
24:18那么你知道巴菲特认为一个CEO同样的方式写一个CEO有一堆
24:23在该公司的营运资金的资产形式资本家
24:27等你知道现金，并表示该公司如何我们要部署这些
24:33资产的最高和最佳使用，因此另一种方法，也许事情
24:40你的时间让我们的话提议刚开始是好的企业
24:45质量和缓冲有使一切看起来很容易的这一诀窍，但
24:51实际上是没有，因此可能而没有工作的缓冲出头的你
24:55刚刚起步的企业，只要你有一个brexit那些使用
24:59商家挂到他们，显然你不打算做
25:01百分之三十的年化回报率，但对于大多数人来说，你知道，如果你这样做
25:06 30多年来，我不需要做百分之三十分析做什么好
25:10你觉得这种做法的美妙，我认为这是一个很好的方法，我的意思是如果
25:14如果你能识别领域中，你，如果你能找出一个领域
25:19你认为你了解并能值对，那么你也可以证券
25:23在确定他们会为您提供回报率的化合物价格
25:28你是对的后，你想，也许您有权所以现在
25:32我的意思是，如果利率是百分之十，你知道需求率
25:37那你会从从投资是要期望回报
25:40会比如果有两成权较高，但如果你有一个字段
25:45说25企业有与它们相关的公共股权
25:49右边可以重视这些企业，然后确定价格在这
25:55他们会为您提供回报的那是你认为你所需要的速度
26:00向使投资我想，但总是用15你知道我现在想
26:07他的资本的大小下拉接近10，但你知道，如果你不工作
26:13几十亿，也许15是正确的号码
26:16但无论这是我认为这是一个这是一个这是一个伟大的战略
26:20尤其是22决定对你说的话VS我猜问题
26:27你所谓有效市场理论是真的没有人可以
26:32发现实际上可以得到法律上你比知道系统的更多信息
26:36任何人，这一切都建在$一年，尤其是人们谈论
26:42怎么几乎没有人可以比低于指标过程中磷的，而且在
26:49有反击的例子是麦哲伦和我沃伦彼得·林奇
26:54当然，巴菲特和，然后人们说好沃伦·巴菲特他是你不能
26:58真正指望他，因为他竟然去和像你说的得到的
27:02板和帮助管理该公司，所以他他亲自占用了一定的作用
27:07使得公司成功这显然大多数人都可以做，然后
27:11彼得·彼得·林奇，他有一个非常强势运行但一旦他得到了麦哲伦出
27:16并开始预测样的股票他的私人他的私人投资组合实际上
27:20没有战胜市场，所以即使是在我说我们大家在这里，我们在谷歌工作，
27:26然而，即使我们和所以如果我们想我们可能不是有关
27:29互联网业务和诸如此类的东西，甚至我想我们大多数人都被震惊漂亮
27:33谷歌执行和方式继续执行，甚至我
27:37这里很多年，我不知道发生了什么事情在互联网上发生
27:42业务，我知道你的销售和广告市场等等，所以我
27:47不知道我会怎么连应用您是说个人的事
27:51即使我在很短的企业是如此让我尝试解包一个
27:57有点让你知道最好的自助餐一瓶有效市场理论是
28:06一，他给奶奶叫小说的超级投资者讲话，他
28:10发挥出国家抛硬币大赛的情景，每个人都翻转
28:16硬币，你知道迭代去每天，直到有你知道20
28:21左右离开，并表示不会将不可怕怪异，如果当所有20你
28:27知道来自同一个来
28:28镇权，然后他概述了他所谓的超级结果
28:34奶奶奇维尔的投资者这基本上是人的集合
28:38 ，根据克研究或正在严重影响由你知道他的教诲我
28:46会说，在多年的合作伙伴关系有没有投资指数权
28:53这还没有被发明，但即使再擦亮它做的情况下，如果
29:00你不能跑赢市场指数的的成绩一般
29:08道琼斯是什么你知道今天主要想芝麻
29:13那么你知道你自己应该不应该投资积极的权利，你是
29:21的积极投资者的责任超越和那些谁不能
29:25跑赢大盘的是被对得住你知道他们的投资者
29:34由是在你个人怎么可以去积极的方面是正确的
29:43取了价值的方法是做一个你开始什么用
29:51这是拒绝的事情，你不要以为你真的可以有一个强大的
30:00查看在未来将如何展开来讲，你知道它可能会很
30:05不同的那么也许你知道买它有一个优势干洗店
30:14位置，旁边是你在城里知道火车站，在
30:19社区和镇以任何XYZ美国的地方，以便在看股票
30:28作为企业，我认为是在这样做时，你当你有一个强大的最好方式
30:33鉴于这些是什么企业的价值以及您提出的价格在
30:38市场已超过所不同
30:40但是这是它的本质，以及这些将是将取决于
30:46你知道自己的能力范围与你知道什么，并能
30:51价值和结构是很多当你开始想想我们
30:56谈论你暗示了一点宽松，我认为你开始之前
31:00谈话我是不是这里的观众你做这样知道的好处
31:05他早年深入研究的事情，在站出来给你什么
31:11你而言知道，已经影响你在个人层面上的东西不
31:16只是一个有趣的，但也许你在任何方面知道，如果这个问题
31:21被投入你什么会站出来给你的方式，巴菲特怎么样
31:27构建合作沟通，他的投资是有点儿
31:36从你知道一开始就高档有很多完整，
31:42它真正的亮点通过字母，这将是一件事，但是从
31:46在什么条件实用的角度看，真正改变了我的思维方式
31:53关于投资作为一个参与者将这种想法的业务中
32:01小狗是资本一堆权利，使期待看到资产是对的什么是
32:08在这样的回报率是正的对这些资产所产生的是他们
32:13在企业优化右看看，如果你拥有了整个事情的权利，即使
32:18不过，当你购买的安全，你买你的分成比例，你知道什么是
32:22整个事情值得你的权利得到了雅虎财经要看公司
32:27不看股价右看市值权什么是全
32:31商业价值右侧，然后你知道，如果我买我的业务的一部分，你
32:39知道我得到它的折扣还是我花冤枉钱，所以你知道的互换性
32:46的想法，你知道的商业资本
32:52和投资是种非常多了两者之间的区别是是
33:00排序的方式，然后假我想其他的事情将是认为
33:05长期
33:07确定这样复利需要耐心
33:10它并没有真正踢，直到斯莱克67年取决于利率的权利，但
33:17一旦它一旦进入它是最强大的力量有这就是为什么
33:22巴菲特常开玩笑说是理发的花费他们200隆重每人权
33:27因为如果他而放弃了理发，并把钱放在你知道基金
33:32你说的200批，当我做数学题，我都挺喜欢2000000但其他
33:36指向同一我发现它非常难以调和的一个缓冲的场景和
33:42我觉得你有21这是今天如果我是管理1000万美金，所以你
33:47我知道我能想到我可以做的不要介意百分之五十，我认为我可以得到
33:51为你的权利啊，然后我想后，他开始快乐的屠夫作为
33:56上市公司他不断强调它远远不如买一个美妙
34:01在企业在一个奇妙的地方权利的公平的地方和一个公平的营商和
34:05他接着说从未有在厨房，但买了一只蟑螂
34:10在书籍减XN是他曾经在他的生活做出的最严重的错误之一，所以我
34:15发现这些难以调和我敢肯定，你想过这个我喜欢你
34:19对我的想法
34:20是啊，你也知道查理·芒格伯克希尔的副主席被问得
34:26类似的问题，他的回答是事实证明，我们可以购买大企业
34:32你知道它仅花费了我们复利一年什么的几个百分点
34:38一个更好的生活的权利，所以你知道，我认为这个桑伯恩情况一切
34:47时间，因为它是这样一个小公司，好吧，我的意思是，你几乎可以设想一个
34:54个人的权利获得该公司的控股权组
35:00有500万的市值
35:02 10万块钱我的意思是，今天可能发生
35:06右那是他在做什么正确的，所以你知道我想如果你，如果我说没关系
35:11有了你知道，我也许可以找到这些公司几百万美元，他们
35:15有一个5亿美元的市场，合适的猫，也许他们只需要被关闭
35:19下或者需要将它们卖掉或移动你知道，但你可以你可以
35:22这些工程师类型的收益
35:25我认为这是他的意思，但为他想居住的生活方式
35:33正确的，如果你想拥有带每周安排一本日记，你知道是
35:38除了像星期四空白两个理发权混配是真的
35:45好办法做到这一点，你知道他做了一个更好的回报称为公司
35:48登普斯特磨他的违约有效右侧，然后是
35:54成立避税，他上作出了巨大的回报，但你知道
36:00内布拉斯加州比阿特丽斯的镇有大约头条巴菲特你知道清盘
36:05所有的时间，这就是不容易的，你在你怎么知道的来讲什么灵丹妙药
36:10想住你的生活，可以看出所以一旦他已经富有，我认为他
36:16排序锁存到这种想法即使不是也许从最佳
36:23返回的角度
36:24哦，我看到了基督纸和一个季度增长在这归因一个办公室
36:32的上面少部分是成功的回归到他的实验室
36:37投资组合主要是通过巧合浮动
36:41我不知道不喜欢在其早期投资组合多少革命性
36:46是啊等等都是他使用的杠杆也只是在训练中如此
36:54谋杀ARB经营权的公司人将是你知道它
36:59经过有这种传播
37:01通常你知道这是一对夫妇个百分点，但你知道，
37:05所以你知道，如果你年率使其到达像你知道的窗口很短
37:10六七但如果你把你知道它的杠杆作用三圈
37:15而你看18或任何类似的规定，所以你知道
37:19当他在做这些类型的东西的时候，不得不高度的肯定
37:24他们将真正关闭，你知道他没有那种偶尔一
37:29大把大把的，你知道这些谋杀我们的店一吨的这些交易，但他的
37:35你知道几年我一样，是非常有信心，你知道他会
37:39利用这些但却其余投资组合的的是在豹你花了
37:45很多时候都提到巴菲特的规模排序作为一个管理者无论是
37:49通过特殊的情况有点像的锻炼和大量的你可以得到
37:53从超额回报，但我想知道你如何和雨回应
37:57对于看过一些其他人的AQR写了一篇论文，几年前尝试
38:02讨论这些排序哪里缓冲性能来自哪里
38:06那白色的天气怎么样，为什么他有一个0.76阿尔法到底为什么能够获得
38:11在国内如此高的回报率在一个相对低的挥发性，所以他们
38:16已经做了分析，所以他们看一个是技能，如股票
38:20选择和他在这些类型的情况下，经理和技巧，他
38:25得出的结论是，由于它实际上是前他的股票
38:29选择能力它是否能够选择的低贝塔的股票
38:33与恩公司只是谁了高品质是非常一致的增长炒作
38:38派息率，而不是他的能力作为一个管理器来管理私人一样
38:42公司导航企业转型等，甚至
38:46相信他们送了很多，他们也部分归因选择高杠杆
38:50作为1.6 21的杠杆，因此该计算杠杆为自己的资产减
38:55多余的现金/资产，而不是你如何与我做到了想用户的
38:59像三个匹配向右转，而且是用它为多，因此也
39:03您
39:03这是所以基本上，中央的一点是，他们做了一个统计
39:06分析能够解释像他高地
39:09阿尔法由于他作为一个选股能力，而不是他的能力
39:14居然有这样的人锻炼暑期工作或任何这些的，是我
39:19猜耶痕这不是什么好耶很棒很棒的问题，你只要知道
39:24要清楚，当我们谈论我们在同一基础上谈论它的杠杆作用
39:28右，使得它被通过一个给定的量来控制所述资产的量
39:33股权权利，使我们有6％的回报，我们利用三倍
39:39意味着我们控制三倍资产与给定量的
39:42公平权利，这就是给你的你是百分之十八，你
39:48知道有没有了在伯克希尔年很多风险ARB的有
39:53有一些你知道他写了它，并在七十年代，但你的主要
39:59你的观点的主旨是绝对准确的权利我的意思的素质
40:03他曾参与那么企业已经超过相当一致
40:10时候你就知道它的财务是它的品牌消费企业等
40:16在那里，他觉得他有什么业务是有可能挣一视图
40:23从现在年不是很多意志或者我应该说，我们与他的想法是
40:29高度的肯定，他可以知道企业是要去看看
40:33就像在未来，所以这种事情都与相关的因素
40:38他们因此无论它的波动性，或者您知道实际的基础
40:45企业本身等，然后杠杆因素的波动是一个巨大的
40:52件正确的，因为不仅他从浮动的杠杆作用有
40:59保险公司它的方式是购买伯克希尔哪里好
41:04它是一个投资组合持有了合作关系，而且通过
41:09与未实现的资本相关的递延所得税负债的杠杆作用
41:15在证券组合收益，所以你知道我们可以谈谈你知道的利润
41:23并避免杠杆率，但真的是他在谈论的是具有杠杆
41:29有一个本金所以相关的优惠券到期日或杠杆
41:34所以你知道与之相关的利息支付浮动书面及以下
41:41适当趋于前来，当然了的在接近免费的成本伪证
41:49首先所得税负债不承担任何利息，所以我认为你是正确的
41:53但我也想说，你知道我认为这是很容易不容易，但你
42:00知道你可以做统计分析，并运行回归和
42:05看什么因素导致，这是一个有一个有一个的成功
42:11之所以你知道有一个更多的BUFF是正确的，所以我不知道我是否
42:18一定认为我们可以只是做一个量子模型，如果复制巴菲特
42:23今天我们开始用相同的因素，以及因此它的参数的一部分
42:28是它不像私营公司出售对不起对不起，让我
42:32那行，所以我同意你的意见，以及和我不认为地址
42:36巴菲特想永远得到主动权也没有，他认为这是他的技能来
42:41今天活跃没想到得到我做他想做活跃你知道经理
42:46不骂你知道巴菲特将每月一次给的数字，说你
42:51知道这里是什么我做什么，你觉得这是确定好你应该
42:55让您的流动资金关闭或你有太多的固定资产或任何他
42:58说，你知道给伟大的管理者，然后让他们跑他们的业务权
43:03而这就是他的那种MO现在权，所以他不是真正自称是你
43:09知道一个伟大的铸铁伪造，所以他是你知道你买的精度的铸件
43:16最新的理论，有40十亿美元那么你知道这是不是他
43:21买了经理和公司，所以我觉得他有很多更说如何
43:27资本被分配的
43:29企业运行，这确实在那里，他的价值，你在看
43:33六十年代九十年代末我的意思是大部分收益来自来到
43:39在六十年代的业务美国运通一把，然后看到糖果
43:44可口可乐美国运通一次这里主要
43:51其原因是，我们都非常集中回美国运通是
43:56一些三十四十％，而焦炭我觉得还是资本的百分之二十
44:02而当和GEICO也是一个相当显著但如此当他做了这些
44:08投资他们失宠这里的差异化视图和
44:14区分你来自
44:16他做的是削减这些公司给了他的这几样
44:21看有关安全差异点我最喜欢的和美国
44:26各地快递事件，并做了所有的错落你
44:28所以我的观点存在是从这些经验教训似乎集中传言，如果
44:36我将是一个选股很重要
44:39什么是从那里的教训，我们今天能做的事
44:42适用，如果我积极投资选股是我你知道，如果是浓
44:47车辆上的计数器只完成句子计数器是很多
44:53对冲基金开始他们有看和差异化点
44:56球英勇的，它是一个集中，但总是可以的
45:00另一种方式和杀害十年混杂耶绝对爱
45:06问题的权利所以红杉基金右取下有效声誉
45:11按值拆除的形成是因为自助餐的合作伙伴关系禁区右侧的
45:16投资者谁想要保持他们接触股市，即使
45:20浅黄色有人建议，他们并没有这样做，他给的选项
45:24法案罗恩在那里与合作开始红杉的地方，这样的人
45:32谁想要站基本上可以写出下面同样的策略
45:38这有点像
45:39它就像一个伊卡洛斯策略吧我的意思是你飞可怕接近
45:46孙它提高了回报您的问题，她的朋友非常好
45:50你知道的部分原因为成功是他集中在
45:56正确的东东吧
45:59为你的部分原因知道红杉基金的垮台是，
46:04他们被集中在了错误的东东吧，让你知道它的作品真的
46:11还有，只要你知道你不要让我猜的错误是如此点
46:15在何种程度上，你有你在做什么信心应该
46:21确定浓度你愿意，因为如果接受程度
46:26它出错它会如果你集中去可怕的错误，这就是它
46:30你知道这是可恢复的杰里米甚至当我是问你，你知道领先
46:36相同的问题前面你提到了辉煌的格雷厄姆法院有关
46:40巴菲特哦耶权那么那么格雷厄姆问巴菲特有
46:51成为他的品质化合物或战略方面，他说我可以理解
46:58你为什么这样做，但它很难正确的，所以我认为这是为大家
47:06决定自己是否知道他们觉得这是他们的本质是
47:11更像是巴菲特的25 26 27岁以上或更多像你知道在松饼
47:20 40岁或84岁像今天他是
47:23这么多再次感谢你今天在这里和我们在一起，这是
Talks at Google2016.5.19---Chris Anderson:TED演講指南
Talks at Google2016.5.19---Chris Anderson:TED演講指南
發佈日期：2016年5月19日
Chris Anderson, Head of TED, stops by Google Chicago for a fireside chat with Google's Jim Lecinski, VP - Sales & Service.
Since taking over TED in the early 2000s, Chris Anderson has shown how carefully crafted short talks can be the key to unlocking empathy, stirring excitement, spreading knowledge, and promoting a shared dream. His exciting and informative new book TED Talks: The Official TED Guide to Public Speaking serves as Anderson’s instruction manual from his 15 years of working with many of the world’s most impactful speakers.
Jim Lecinski, Vice President, leads Google's Brand, Performance, Platforms and Creative solutions teams in the Americas. His focus is product commercialization-- developing the go-to market strategies and initiatives for Google’s product lines that help major marketers adapt to the new digital marketing realities.
克里斯·安德森，TED负责人，停止由谷歌芝加哥与谷歌的吉姆Lecinski，副总裁一炉边谈话 - 销售服务。
自从接管TED在21世纪初，克里斯·安德森已经显示出精心打造的短讲怎么能是关键解锁同情，搅拌兴奋，传播知识，促进共同梦想。他的令人兴奋和翔实的新书TED演讲：官方TED指南公开演讲作为安德森的说明书从他15年许多世界上最具影响力的音箱工作。
吉姆Lecinski，副总裁，领导谷歌的品牌，性能，平台和美洲创意解决方案团队。他的工作重点是产品开发commercialization--谷歌的产品线，可以帮助营销人员主要适应新的数字化营销的现实去到市场战略和举措。
==========Google 翻译==========
0:00well good friday afternoon everyone and welcome to another exciting addition of
0:06authors at Google where originating today from our wonderful Google Chicago
0:11office round of applause I will be your presumptive moderator for the day
0:21using the zeitgeist word of the day and Jim Liske
0:24and our guest today is with us Chris Anderson chris is the curator of the tip
0:30conference and has been since 2002 following a long and successful career
0:35in the publishing industry and we'll talk a little bit about that today
0:39chris has developed head into a global platform for identifying and
0:45disseminating ideas worth spreading welcome Chris
0:53so great to have you with us I wonder if maybe we could get started if you tell
0:59us a little bit about your background I i mention the publishing how does a
1:04philosophy major and publisher come to lead and transform of the world's great
1:09digital brands differently long twisting journey is the journalists region as
1:15soon as I get out of university and I made the mistake of buying one of the
1:20early computers like a Tandy TRS 80 clone and I was awed by this thing I
1:27could have completed a level that and and Columbus to a short fuse later early
1:33computer magazines and I love that and then I decided this is a public service
1:39company published magazine bizarrely it worked and understanding took off and
1:44and so it's like the publishing part was just building lots and lots of these
1:48Nishi hobbyist magazines that were deeply bring to everyone the people they
1:53were targeted at them so we had this we did this to us that she media with
1:59passion and that's that's always been my my mantra as a as an entrepreneur is the
2:05passion you can find something that people are really passionate about that
2:09seal clue that there's that kind of the proxy for potential and so when I first
2:15came to ted in 1998
2:18back then you know is the starting 84 nothing on the internet of course it was
2:24it was an annual conference that is it and why I went there in 98 was bringing
2:29together Technology Entertainment Design GED and come home and what I saw was
2:37this passion people were so passionate about it was like this is my best week
2:42of the year but but that was the clue and so when there's a chance to buy from
2:49its found over 65 and you know I loved it
2:53and so that happened in 2001 and it's the journey since then has been a long
2:57journey of its own but that's like that and we'll talk about their journey since
3:00then in some sense it's been said that it was the power of what was then new
3:06media back in 2006 online video in particular that really gave tenets boost
3:11was that's the case and that's absolutely the case we you know when I
3:15bought it I bought it with a non-profit foundation I had and so that the the
3:21intention was always it felt like those of this inspiration you know it was
3:25supposed to be for the public good somehow doubt the knowledge that was at
3:29this private conference to the world and our first attempt was to do that was on
3:33TV and TV wasn't interested
3:36elections you know their lectures that kinda boring boring as you listen to
3:41them but they were interested and and so yes sir when this weird technology
3:47called online video with its shaky little kittens and all these other
3:51things happening came along maybe we could as an experiment put some TED
3:56Talks up probably won't work
3:58the too long for the internet you know it's gonna be their lives on video to
4:03our movement these things went viral and so that was in 2006 we decided we had to
4:08flip Ted on its head when no longer just a conference where media organization
4:14devoted to sharing ideas and so let's build on that a little bit you know you
4:19describe what it stands for T ed but how do you talk about its meaning its
4:24purpose is the brand stand for
4:28stands for the bringing together of knowledge in ways that people can
4:32understand you know the world's really complicated and most of the time we go
4:37deep you know you have to know something of a chance of exceeding you dig deep
4:41you learn your speciality well and that's how most things operate that
4:44summer's conferences operate you know as university courses whatever that's what
4:48you have to do but there's a place for context to actually understand the world
4:55wherein you need to go abroad in that
4:57and actually lots of other things happen when you bring together knowledge from
5:01different areas you get the catalyzing of new ideas you get the possibility of
5:06collaboration and I think that's what that's what me suddenly was why ted had
5:13a role to play there's just not much of that happens and so if you can persuade
5:17people to come together from these two fields and explains that passionate
5:21about in ways I can actually understand that that I think you know that
5:25different few days for example that had the effect of sending these spots your
5:29brain you just thought it's up to you hadn't thought of before and that's what
5:34it stands for come back and chat a little bit in a second about you know
5:38the power of how those talks are built on understandable ideas but i wanna
5:42pursue you mention the word collaboration you know most of the most
5:47of our audiences is not had the pleasure of actually attending the conference
5:50when they were in Long Beach are now back in Vancouver so could you may be
5:53paying a little picture about not just the speakers on the stage that we can
5:57see by watching the video but it's a full Ford a collaboration of event with
6:02the dinners and and key maybe a picture of what happens during that week so yes
6:07so it's it's it's four and a half ish days they're busy 12 main sessions of
6:13Ted each session is an hour and 45 minutes and it's five to six speakers +
6:18other performances and things thrown in there so it's quite fast moving what's
6:24what's unusual about it is that everyone sees every speaker it's one track and
6:29that doesn't usually happen but the hope that it is the whole point of it is you
6:33are supposed to be exposed to stuff you had no idea you were interested in and
6:37it's it's it's become a truism that ted that the session that you think is gonna
6:40be most boring as the one that blows you away and so amazingly people do commit
6:45to coming to each session and that means that you cannot be shared conversation
6:50in the in the corridors after and the collaboration is we we stay just it just
6:56happens that the combination of that exposure to these different speakers and
7:01ideas it's a spot rings and people and
7:05in a weird projects in my job now is it the case I I had heard that you
7:11discouraged or don't allow digital devices or live tweeting or cameras are
7:17these kinda things in the rooms that that is the case apart from the back two
7:21rows where people can do it if they if they want to you know more in the summer
7:25cost basis but in the main theatre we say now because one of life right now is
7:32this attention war and talks are weird things you know they they often take a
7:39while to build to share a really big idea of certain that really matters you
7:44sometimes have to build context you have to go through cash ninety seconds what's
7:48a bit challenging boring for a minute if people are just going to check my email
7:53just for this moment they miss a couple of key contacts and gone and then the
7:58talk never lands and what's more the five people behind them as sort of
8:01annoyed and and it's sending a signal that this isn't that interesting so
8:05everyone else decides it's not that interesting you are right now you are a
8:09super organism you'll actually they don't clean conscious of it you're
8:13you're feeding off each other you take cues from each other and that's what
8:17happens in all I think so
8:18so we tried to have a different contract from the normal contract audience you're
8:23actually gonna try you can give your full attention to the speaker for 18
8:27minutes speaker
8:28bloody hard for several months to produce the talk of your life and make
8:32it worth it and that's the deal you know actually asked that question is just a
8:36not so subtle hint to our audience today
8:38I'm coming to Google
8:49so maybe a little bit about the simple question of who gets to do a 10 talk how
8:55do you decide
8:57someone who is doing amazing work that other people need to know about the rest
9:02is detailed it is hard to decide who those people are right we get 10,000
9:06suggestions from a year from people around the world we have a curation team
9:11were trying to for a conference were trying to weave a sort of a mix of
9:15people together around a theme of this is the dream of a big bowl dreams but
9:21there's no algorithm to it yet it's a sort of cos we want the program to
9:31another I think a lot of events still to do this we want to poke at every
9:36different part of people's minds you know it can't just be about you know
9:40political or storytelling whatever it's it's their different parts of Mines
9:46engaged when you start to go to the aesthetic or two
9:49inspiring story water here's a complex you know scientific issues that were
9:54tackling in there's there's there's energy that comes from that and so it's
9:59not just who you bring its then trying to sequence them in a way that I heard
10:05you once say that it is a filter screen how you put it but one consideration
10:10that you look at is in deciding on a speaker is who would benefit from
10:15hearing this idea is it just you is it just your team's adjust your
10:19organization or right so that that is actually I would say that is the number
10:24one advice to a speaker thing that's that's in the book is it's so tempting
10:30as a speaker you think hey I got an opportunity so I'm going to use it to
10:35promote my organization my clothes and in the process I'm gonna take the chance
10:41to be a cause I can
10:44and and that's that's the trap that so many people fall into and it's and it's
10:48very counterproductive because it actually shut down the audience people
10:53don't know if you can do it the other way around if you can make clear from
10:57the start that your purpose in being on stage is to give something to give
11:02people a gift I get to something that you know that if they knew it would make
11:06a difference to their lives are built around our world views different
11:13knowledge means a different life means doing things differently maybe years
11:16into the future so so come with a gift and I think if we if we don't see that
11:22in a speaker if we still for a minute that they're in it for self promotional
11:26purposes
11:27primarily interested right and that's good advice not just on stage in your
11:31conference in general I suppose I think in general I think absolutely in general
11:35even frankly even if you want to sell something the best sales people don't
11:40come on and say hey here's what I got
11:42they say what are you passionate about what's what do you think about what you
11:48need when you can see how can I help and you know so absolutely every every
11:54speaker should be thinking about the audience and and what they can offer in
12:00terms of speaking delivery in speaking ability you describe yourself and I
12:05think greatly under selling your powers as not a natural charismatic speaker in
12:11some senses in some senses your predecessor was a charismatic outgoing
12:15but you've had this awesome ringside seat for the past dozen or so or more
12:21years watching great speakers so what if you observe about you know the perennial
12:27debate of you know you're a natural at it or not or you can learn it or not
12:33some people you know can only get so far being a good speaker what's what's your
12:37point on against nature nurture and I'm convinced that the only thing that you
12:42need to give a great talk is something you need knowledge
12:48you need you need to have done some work that deserves a wider area the rescue me
12:57talk honestly can be taught because the way the last thing you want is for
13:02everyone to learn some sort of style of speaking we don't want to think of
13:06speaking as a performance that definitely are some people who are
13:09natural performers and who can in the moment in a smoothly in a beautiful
13:17elegant phrase is out of nowhere and pass them on so that there are there are
13:21not everyone probably can do that but that's a good thing we don't want to do
13:26that it would get exhausting honestly what what what you want is a variety of
13:30different people different skills different stop points difference
13:34speaking styles you want is authenticity you want people who care about something
13:39and even if they have stomach their way through at all if you're learning
13:43something that is fantastic so i i i just feel passionate about this that
13:48that it's a it's a tragedy that there are so many people out there in the
13:52world and I bet there are people here in this you know we are leading company
13:56under confident when it comes to public speaking
14:00despite having something really valuable to to share something that if if the
14:05rest of the world and so maybe if you tell us a little bit about two people
14:14who I guess fit both of those profiles are archetypes that you just outlined
14:18maybe Sir Ken Robinson is a naturally gifted one of those who can plug things
14:23out and maybe someone was little more hesitant like monica lewinsky maybe just
14:27tell us a little bit about you know those two examples to illustrate your
14:30point i mean second one person came to tell in 2006
14:35you know he already had been voted Europe's best because that I was a
14:40little suspicious because I thought he was gonna get here but you know he
14:46shuffled onto the stage he said you know doesn't it have been blown away in fact
14:54I'm leaving and capacity and giggled and then they over the next 10 minutes they
14:59just didn't start laughing
15:01he just told story after story about kids and and we all wanted it to go on
15:06forever and having one or that affection he was able to give us this very
15:10inspiring story an argument that creativity is completely and taught in
15:17schools undernourished and and that resonated with so many people so deeply
15:21and so does 2006 and you know it was told to a hundred people and now a
15:27hundred people every hour watch that talk online you know all these years
15:31later and he's up to 38 million or whatever it is
15:34monica lewinsky was terrified for obvious reasons coming to you know she'd
15:40she'd had been steadily invisible for best part of a decade and and she she
15:47felt passionate about certain things but this issue of cyberbullying but it took
15:51a lot of courage for her to come and raised her voice and naturally come into
15:55the conference
15:56gosh what if you know this is a big public stage 1 videos is really hard
16:01that I think she almost pulled out a couple of times but what held her there
16:05was a mean shit she wrote on her script in this matter you know and returning to
16:14sort of giving this in the service and/or idea made a big difference to
16:17diffuse things physically in terms of exercises breathing whatever before
16:22communes day and she had in her talk she had
16:25structure that cleverly so that our friendship a very disarming personal
16:29story right in the first minute or two that had everyone laughing and at that
16:35moment you tell me you know she just relaxed and knew that she she had it and
16:38so that talk was extraordinary that that's been seen by eight million people
16:42now and it it really changed a lot of people thought of her and a lot of
16:46people thought about this issue so I definitely said that she can overcome
16:50her fear anybody here who is fearful of speaking could you talk about some of
16:55those conventions that she used some great sticky phrases I remember one that
16:59that that hangs with me she called herself I think patient zero of cyber
17:04bullying
17:05so that brings up the natural question of new coach the speakers do you write
17:11the scripts do you edit the scripts to review them or are in our their scripts
17:16or is it all improvised so it's different in a case in the majority of
17:21cases there are secret and we don't write them in the first place we invited
17:26draft if we don't think that it's quite that we may suggest changes usually
17:32broadly occasionally line-by-line and you know i mean the hardest thing for
17:39speakers is actually to adjust the scope of the talk to fit 18 minutes or so
17:44people say it's coming to the big talk I so many things in my life I'm so proud
17:49of and I want to share with his group general morillon's somehow or other and
17:54that that means that everything gets dealt with you know the jammed under
18:00explained so that the hardest thing as too as a disparate of cutting it out
18:04cutting it out focusing on the one idea that you're most passionate about and
18:09therefore giving us enough time to unpack it properly you know to set up
18:13the context why does this matter why do I care about it why should you care
18:16about it how's the spin tackled historically why didn't that work what
18:20could work now here's an example of that is what we gonna do this all those
18:25things are what make the idea of vivid and actionable and so that's that's the
18:31hardest places people just coming with too much usually say that this is the
18:37famous if if I have touch if I had had time I would have written exactly
18:43exactly so in terms of of presentation styles
18:48me give you to sort of poles of course as many shades of gray in between but
18:52there are the speakers I managed to come in with the full script everything
18:58written practiced in timed fully memorized 17 minutes and 59 seconds and
19:04its recall push the button and all thousand words come out and they're
19:08probably others who come in with a series of stories or bullet points or
19:12sketches that they kinda know they want to cover and 10 leaves room for some
19:15spontaneity Dec both to encourage both can both work we see both we encourage
19:22both and both can work the Xpress trap the trap is going in the middle between
19:31the two cells so that the the the type of talk that I think we try and
19:36discourage is the I'm planning to memorize this but I'm still a little bit
19:42stressed I'm not quite there and the audience can share that like if you
19:46start giving your talk and and then your eyes roll up a bit and then let me just
19:54start that paragraph again and suddenly people have the sickening feeling oh my
19:58goodness is reciting and and and the life in a way it goes out of it because
20:03what you want is this live human moment in a way here you know it's it's a
20:09lovely you know like I feel that this this happens live in and people want to
20:15decode that i'm looking at a live human mind making a judgment right now and
20:21it's hard to look at my Shona here but you know make a judgment right now about
20:24whether you can trust me it's hard to do that if you think someone's resizing you
20:30actually can't so if you're in that mode his what you have to do you don't tear
20:36it up and go back to notes you double down on your rehearsal and you you own
20:41the talk you make it part of you so that when you're on the run
20:44you know it's not easy it's not at all apartment remember you say you know
20:48what's coming next it's it's right there and you can focus again on the meaning
20:52wanting to connect with with you because passing another I think of it this
20:56particular idea is right for you right now and speakers can get to the point of
21:01doing that and I think probably the majority TEDTalks are memorized a small
21:05number of them do sound a little bit robotics and and you know people push
21:11back against that most of them you know you really feel the presence passion and
21:16it's in its ruling the danger of going the other way is that you can ramble you
21:22can go over you can miss out some of the key things that you want to say well you
21:26could miss the chance to really use the best language to say that they want to
21:29really clearly explain something on the other hand it can be live in fashion
21:34some people really can do that very well but I'll say to someone who was planning
21:38to speak from bullet points is it still was rehearsing it you know bye bye
21:44rehearse it three or four times even if it's just in your bedroom with the south
21:49on their recording you know you'll find out the moments in it and and it'll
21:55change your and your move from owning the talk go either way and get to the
22:02point where you feel like you really know that you know you just know it and
22:07then then you can focus on meaning in connection so let's get into the book a
22:13little bit more I mean this is some of the content in the excellent book that
22:17that that you've released you said that the goal of every 10 speaker is to plant
22:22the seed of a powerful idea yes and the book starts to unpack ways to do that
22:27let's I guess tackle the first elephant or monkey here which is is there a
22:31formula to plant that seed now there's no formula I think I think the first
22:36thing to note is that it's a miracle that you can do it what is an idea I
22:40could you could you could take like the idea
22:42democracies fragile right if you could if you could look if you could color
22:46code that in your brain look at what actually concludes that in in human
22:50brain I would guess that involves literally millions of your on the
22:53fantastically complicated pattern yet somehow in an 18 minute talk or less a
22:59speaker can transfer the entire pattern
23:02into our minds seems like an impossible thing only when it happens it can do is
23:08because we shall language rightly so so you're building this pattern elements
23:13that already exist in the minds what your treasure is to put them together
23:16but to do that you have to be incredibly disciplined about remembering that it's
23:22it's their language their concepts that you're building from not not yours so
23:26your jog on your assumptions that's that's what can kill an explanation and
23:34and there's this cognitive bug because of knowledge which pretty much everyone
23:39suffers from and which is the tendency to forget what it's like not to know
23:43something you know you guys hear you live in a world where you know it's
23:47natural outgrowth and coding you know whatever you took a conversation with
23:53people somewhere else and use only one over such as you're boring person
23:58because you missed out something that they didn't understand why this matter
24:03what the context was we do this all the time and so so as a speaker trial talk
24:10out on someone who isn't in your normal circle but who might be like the people
24:14in the audience if they got it you kind of have to do that and so you've talked
24:18a little bit about how using familiar concepts metaphors as a bridge to get a
24:25complex topic across can be effective right so I think the metaphor is kind of
24:30like a template you've got these different elements are ideas in
24:34someone's mind and a metaphor shows how they connect together in a shape that
24:38familiar so that you get it so you know Jennifer Cohn science writer was trying
24:43to explain to us that the last head and we've had some scientists trying to
24:47explain that they got terribly complicated enormously complex science
24:51of DNA and so forth
24:53she said no looks like a word processor for the Gina you couldn't use
24:58Christopher to cut and paste any gene any part you want or indeed any latter
25:02ago wow what process to the gym I get it
25:07powerful and examples of powerful as well to make sure that you're sort of
25:12your commenting in the knowledge so this is what I mean one of the other
25:17conventions are devices that you talked about in the book is getting personal
25:23you mentioned monica lewinsky opened her talk with a with a personal story what's
25:27been your experience for your advice on using personal anecdotes or personal
25:31experience is often the advices you know speakers come up and say I i me me me
25:35turns off the audience yes it is if you think the speaker saying it's all about
25:41me that is a turnoff but I think there is there is a case to try to defuse
25:47skepticism and mistrust if you think about it if this agenda of trying to
25:53build an idea in someone's mind very intimate that people are skeptical about
25:58letting a stranger can poke around inside their brand lab mission and so
26:02first of all there's a sort of the process of learning to trust and saying
26:08do I do trust this person died like this person I want to open up to this person
26:12and you need that opening up to happen if explanation as to happen you can't
26:18push knowledge into a brain has to be pulled in and so the personal is the way
26:24to build that trust and so it's not so only person that's not saying let me
26:29tell you all about me it's more it's more saying in a personal way why this
26:35not isn't showing but just but just showing it in a sort of an informal way
26:40running starting at a conceptual level it's it's like saying hey we're gonna go
26:44on a journey together you know like to go and by the way it's going to be fun
26:50you should come with me and I'm just trying to convince people off that I
26:55remind our audience in a few minutes we'll be taking questions at the
26:58microphones here so have your questions ready in a couple of minutes when the
27:02concepts that they're really resonated powerfully with be in the book is this
27:06notion of the through life
27:08explained that 400 if it's right that a talk should be about building an idea in
27:16people's minds then everything in the talk needs to connect to that idea you
27:21think of it as your through line and so things that aren't part of that get cut
27:26out but then everything else connected to that when you think about what's
27:31happening in a talk you're taking this very complex three-dimensional object of
27:35an idea and you're trying to transfer that your means to do it as a
27:39one-dimensional stream of lads so it's it's it's inherently high what you have
27:43to do that for his tooth read those words in a way where it's clear how each
27:48part related so if you're going to give a counterexample that needs to be clear
27:52that that's what you doing a concert
27:56contacts show that that's what it is you know it's an anecdote people need to get
28:02a sense of how this relates to what was happening otherwise against like I like
28:07the sound of your voice and this is kinda makes sense but these pieces fit
28:12together now lost dogs feeling that they'd feel the pieces are there but it
28:15doesn't quite well and the book are in the book you also talked about a
28:20powerful speaking device is to uncover and explore a disconnect or is seeming
28:27disconnect in a common worldview yes persuasion to persuade persuade someone
28:34or something you first have to show them that what they believe right now doesn't
28:39really make sense like this we can block someone's worldview need to adjust
28:44you know you do you really want to believe this how is that consistent with
28:49it and said that this wonderful feature some talks in innocent of teasing
28:54friendly but in a powerful way just reveal you know that this has got to be
28:59observed and that that Stokes curiosity and once you know once this concept of
29:05the knowledge gap once you're aware of this knowledge gap in your mind you
29:09instinctively just you want to close it out I don't like this in addition to the
29:18talks themselves you've done a wonderful job of extending the brand we've talked
29:24about putting those talks in those videos online certainly the book that
29:27we're talking about today but there's ted X Ted aired some of these other
29:33brand in line extensions and if you do maybe talk about some of the some of
29:36those and how you see those fitting in Phoenix accessories just giving away
29:42that the content we've become obsessed with giving things away in the power of
29:46that in the connected age and so we thought we'd give you a brand you know
29:51doesn't seem like that bright idea at first glance but she added an extra tags
29:57extant for self-organized and if you would like to do a double date like
30:01events around the world you know we'll give you a license to do it it's over to
30:04you and amazingly the three thousand of these now a year so there's nine every
30:09day or so and and obviously we we can do this like I got fifteen people in New
30:15York who are overseeing three thousand of the year it's because of the power to
30:21exercise so these events go from filling out the Sydney Opera House to eventually
30:26jail or dad or whatever absolutely is and I we just love seeing what happens
30:35that there's about YouTube thank you very much is the main distribution
30:39vehicle for this more than 60,000 talks on there and and many of them getting a
30:44lot of use that that's been a thrilling its founding
30:47and Internet is just are are reaching out of the brand to a youth audience and
30:52instead of talks on a stage where we're saying teachers that have your best
30:57lesson five or six minutes to spark curiosity no thanks to Google knowledge
31:03is no longer a problem right
31:06everyone has access to all the world's knowledge for some reason educators
31:10haven't quite come to terms of this year we still think of education is trying to
31:15jam knowledge into a brain fill it up
31:18shouldn't be it should it should all be about nurturing the right kind of
31:21curiosity in the right way to ask questions the right way to bring in the
31:24right knowledge that these are curious parking and the animated but but from a
31:31teacher's best words and so we have the thrill of a great teacher who during the
31:35whole career has reached 5,000 kids at most and suddenly in in the first hour
31:41of their talking online they reach 50,000 and its suffering for them and
31:45it's fun to treat and education and learning has been long part of I would
31:51suggest one of the core tenants or essences of of ted i mean obviously
31:54since the beginning but perhaps sell Khan Salman Khan was was one of the most
32:00preeminent that came and talked about education one of your experiences with
32:04with him and what he's done and it's so common in my opinion is that you know is
32:08a true global hero I mean for hedge fund manager to you know give up his life to
32:14educating his nephews and then the world and it's it's it's really incredible
32:20that one person could do that and he's he's starting with just the power of
32:26video and then adding in this idea of mastery so that people can learn at
32:31their own pace that's the real power of video is that it makes no sense to force
32:36a budget kids to learn the same speed there are different in a video allows
32:39them to decouple from time and find their own rhythm and that that allows
32:44people who would never expect to muster topics in their own time so it's
32:48incredible he gave a very inspiring talk at TED and by the way he's got the best
32:52single quote in the book which is
32:55you know when you when you get at all just be yourself you know like if you
32:59are creative person be a creative person if you are a human specimen humorous
33:03person you know if you're an awful person however that is good advice and
33:10and in a sense I mean what what started on your stage there has been a
33:13revolution in learning there are more than a few school districts who have
33:17so-called flip the classroom and you know the homework is watching celkon to
33:23absorb the information and then the class itself is the practice as opposed
33:27to what we all learned was you learn during the day go home and practice at
33:30night
33:30yeah that has to be very gratifying that kind of thing when you talk about ideas
33:34worth spreading yeah I think that is a powerful I think it's still early days
33:38and there's lots of versions of that being bored I think it's very exciting
33:41has there been any topic area that you would very much wish to have explored
33:47throughout the Ted processor on stage but you haven't just found the quite
33:51right speaker or maybe an area that you thought about diving into I haven't been
33:56comfortable bringing to the stage there are not any in like manner with us you
34:03know just as a as a sort of those who used to lie on the floor of his student
34:09room trying to understand the world with ailing consciousness you know who the
34:15hell are we know it doesn't make anything it doesn't make any sense then
34:19by all by all the author of scientific definitions of consciousness that you
34:24get to a certain level of complexity in decision-making Google itself is
34:27conscious right now maybe it is we don't we don't know but I mean what is it you
34:32know i i is a very difficult questions and we've we've had a few speakers in
34:36but I would I would love more of that that's a little little selfish I mean
34:40what politics is hard right we we in many ways Ted is this sort of the escape
34:46from the ranting that we hear 24 7 on cable that there's something about
34:52certain topics that force people into a tribal mode and it's very distressing
34:56will be stopped
34:57reasoning with each other and sharing I D
35:00Diaz and start shouting at each other on and just taking up positions and so we
35:05don't have traditional political type talks I would love to find more people
35:09who can frame ways to bridge and different ways of looking at politics
35:15and so what we're constantly look out for that but it's hard it's hard to do
35:19let's invite our audience to come up to the microphone and ask some questions
35:23and as they do that you mentioned scientific you know there's quite a lot
35:29of his you use the example here today they're quite a lot of heavy duty
35:32scientific topics but then there's a lot of different points of view we can pick
35:38global warming is it isn't it these kinds of things do you have a scientific
35:42body that reviews the sort of realness of the science or how does one know into
35:47these deep topics if it's real science or skewed science or personal point of
35:52view I mean we're committed to real sign in principle what real Sciences is a
35:58matter of debate even among scientists yeah we don't have a formal process for
36:02doing it we're constantly think about this in the process of hiring a science
36:08curator and that person will have a group of advisers as well you know the
36:16the week we certainly see the science I think doesn't have a place on the 10th
36:22stage there's another amazing this happening inside so many brilliant
36:25scientists out there who have incredible knowledge sharing without needing to go
36:30to people public probably going to end up misleading but what the line is
36:35between the two is just a matter of judgment yeah when one of my favorite
36:39talks was a young ten year old I think that you had from africa wonder if you
36:45would tell that story the audiences and seen his amazing boy Richard to Harry
36:52think about twelve of the time we got to the test page but but earlier he had
36:57done he taught himself electronics by taking apart his parents radio is a must
37:03like it he lived in little settlement outside Nairobi trying to protect
37:09cattle from from lions and and he figured out that moving lights terrified
37:17these lines are somehow he pulled from parts that he found a solar-powered
37:22lights flasher and would scare away the Alliance and you know
37:28environment so happy because the villages weren't going out and killing
37:31the Lions and this invention spread across that area Kenya but when we met
37:36this kid in Nairobi he could hardly speak you couldn't get the story out a
37:43terrified and and the process of bringing him to the point where he got
37:49on a plane for the first time in his life came to California and somewhere
37:52between
37:53will give a talk about about his invention and it was he was so great as
38:04smile lit up the entire place and he told the story beautifully and it was
38:08just about getting comfortable and rehearsing and believing in what he had
38:11done and I think that continually illustrates the point that it's not
38:15always just the big names who can deliver a great talk right on the
38:18unexpected people are often the biggest surprises absolutely
38:22talks are you recruited this kid from Kenya supplies you mentioned you get
38:3210,000 ideas you know any other basis how often are you like we need to get
38:37this person because they have an idea that we want to see on the 10th stage I
38:41think it's not about 60 40 that we sixty we recruit author and identify 40 mister
38:49that forty come from people saying you know I saw this person and they're
38:53amazing you must bring them too tired and probably five percent of people who
38:58say hey i'm ready for the 10th stage and some of those are great
39:01but some of those are and that makes you so much for being here and sharing with
39:10us I loved had it's one of my personal goals to actually take time out of my
39:16day to do that because I find them to be so valuable I'm curious if you're able
39:20to share any sneak peaks are what we can expect this year at TED or just some
39:26ideas for topics that might be new incoming that we can expect when next
39:32year's Ted is that the team is the future you and so it's going to be more
39:37personal than some more secure personal take away how you can use it so but it's
39:42everything from the technologies that are going to be very cool coming up too
39:47literal sort of life hacks that that you can use to navigate the challenging
39:52world that were in no medical advances and so forth so that that's that's the
39:58direction it it it doesn't themes are sort of like a tweaked unusual
40:03content it's not you know it's it's dole you know from the same type of palate in
40:09terms of other talks from the last 10 that are that are coming up
40:13well let's see Jennifer cons to Kris Bernal gene drives is coming out soon
40:21and I think that's that's an incredibly beautiful explained in a very powerful
40:26issue that we all need to be thinking about this wonderful talk about misfits
40:30coming out if you haven't seen it to watch the urban talk on procrastination
40:39you know we all do you get to that one
40:44he procrastinated right up to like the week before the conference then realized
40:59it wasn't there
41:00flew into this panic and ended up coming up with a masterpiece was when it was
41:05very good it's got here I wanted to become a media in general is being
41:10questioned about the discourse in general and social media and news
41:13channels and it's almost like this and if they're encouraged extremists
41:17thinking and not no one's thinking because of limits and unacceptable in
41:22two ways the European Union and even for news channel like snippets and almost
41:29falls new sales more ads done and this is the biggest media 626 select how do
41:41we get this nuanced discussion out to everyone and the channels that reach
41:46more than that right to do you have to talk about this problem is a problem and
41:51now it's a problem and I think it's it's it's a it's constantly moving right i
41:58mean there's many conversations we had been one of the things I think about
42:02which i think i'm hopeful that is that the world we're moving to is you know I
42:07think videos gonna play a bigger bigger role with got if you believe your
42:12founders and Cobourg and have low band low-cost broadband across every square
42:19inch of the planet and and I think you can imagine a future where where people
42:24yes they're still here
42:25screens but what they're seeing as another human face looking back at them
42:29and that some but they are perforce when that happens some of the traditional
42:33standards and and you know things that run very deep in how we look at how we
42:40interact with each other in a makeshift you know that there's a bigger premium
42:44on trust and on respect and so forth but I don't know I think it's all to play
42:50for and I i i do think
42:53I think the one of the things that I I see some hope in is that when when you
42:58went when the battle is about what will people click on that drives a certain
43:03type of behavior it drives like an extremist if you like my lizard brain
43:07behavior
43:07the dramatic and you know whatever and that that leads to you know five
43:14celebrity sexy secrets that did you know frankly destroying the internet if you
43:19guys could please google them out but when when you go to sharing in a social
43:27media sharing their it's more about someone's identity and I think that
43:32triggers a different part of people's minds it it's more reflective choice and
43:38and I think that type of content that how helpful stories and stuff do end up
43:43circulating on social media beautifully so you know it's not an answer question
43:48but it's important it's a very long conversation kinds of behavior and I
43:54mean maybe a technologist we don't think innovating technology is good but
43:56perhaps technologies all sorts of things and it is absolutely possible that we
44:05end up racing technologies that were sleepwalking into a future we don't
44:11actually want and you guys more than any other in the world need to think about
44:15that every day is just because something works in the moment and people want it
44:20like it doesn't mean that there are going to be terrible unintended
44:23consequences of being here this is such a fun way to spend an afternoon my
44:29question is I think we all have stories that we reread and had talked to you
44:34revisit to be inspired to my question to you have any TED talk at you find
44:40yourself free watching over and over again that's really moved you in some
44:43way and then are there any other storytellers maybe even outside of ted
44:48that you really admire
44:51so that that's why I'm not sure if I don't see you in the second I do have a
44:56good answer on the phone the first one I actually talked by David Deutsch that I
45:02really like so there is a physicist he's very pleased and he gave this this talk
45:08basically arguing that we're not chemicals come on a random planet in the
45:13universe as Stephen Hawking said but the actually knowledge is is the force of
45:20potentially universal reach and so that's powerful and he has this
45:26wonderful statement at the end of it as saying that is is a common definition of
45:30of optimism I think he says look carved in stone tablets one of them says
45:34problems are inevitable one of them says problems are solvable and and i think
45:40that what that says is that not the sort of the cliche that there's a
45:45technological solution to every problem which i think is really annoys people
45:50what it says is that it's right take the stance in the world not to be beaten by
45:58stuff that ok there are problems that there will always be problems we
46:01actually can't do have a crack at solving them if it was as if we keep
46:05thinking and keep keep at it very nuanced and beautiful message night and
46:12on the storyteller
46:13you know you've all her areas book sapiens is astonishing he tells a story
46:17of us as a species and he tells it an extraordinary language and connects
46:22things that you would never imagine connecting and I wouldn't recommend it
46:26strongly thanks for coming so in the algorithm has mentioned world we live in
46:35I find it hard for an individual to have a sense of the actual truth or reality
46:40of certain things so for example when I watch ted talks on YouTube is it over
46:45index towards technology or is it just i happen to have watched several
46:49technology TEDTalks that's what YouTube recommends for me so I might my question
46:55is yes with your inside perspective that Ted is over index and certainly
47:01100 X and others and then just sit back and let you know the masses order this
47:07is this is YouTube's our lives entirely to blame here you know YouTube is a
47:15brilliant job of personalizing stuff and so what you watch that's what it will
47:19offer you if you if you were to go to ted.com and type in the word happiness
47:24example you'd see a ton of talks about happiness which which I would if
47:28anyone's going to tell you the first time I would say start their one
47:31happiness not as to those that a dozen different approaches to it that are
47:35different and you know and I i love this talks and the personalization thing by
47:40the way you know I wish there was a default setting on YouTube where you
47:45could say actually I want to be catalyzed you know i i don't i don't
47:50want you to assume the only who I click on I want to be catalyzed 5 a broad
47:56knowledge could you do that for me and I i think a lot of people would think that
48:00that setting thank you thank you very much for coming I'm sure you've heard
48:11incredible stories from people all around the world community's groups of
48:15how ted has impacted them do you have a favorite kind of story that you've heard
48:21that there are many many of them just happen on a personal level
48:28Ted Ted newspeople from being skeptical observers to being engaged agents and I
48:37love seeing that there was there was one where the waitress serving us a
48:44whispered in my ear that she should watch ted talks in attendance this year
48:47was I think she was a Polish immigrant and she she coming to the USA been
48:53homeless for a while and and her son had introduced her to dad and it's almost
49:00like she she was sort of sneaking hours in a homeless shelter for a while
49:05somehow watching you know ted talks on a borrowed iPad or something and and and
49:10she was she was crying and so we were crying and it's not like I i I love the
49:15spread of this that there's so many people who you want to learn how she
49:19felt about what she got from that was the sense of empowerment I'm homeless
49:23now but that's not who I am i can i can be a lot more than that and I think
49:28they're a lot of stories like that individual level that is why we do what
49:33we do and that brings us to our final question which is the traditional
49:38question we always ask our guests at these authors at Google talks would you
49:43be willing to share with our audience a start-stop continued something that they
49:47would suggest that they start doing stop doing continue doing
49:51to learn to be better speakers into plant those seeds of ideas that man stop
50:01being daunted by your nervous about it it's there for a reason is that motivate
50:06you to put the work in to produce great talk starts picking up everyone needs to
50:13the world's too complicated for single experts to solve these problems that
50:19needs lots of us to participate please be part of that continue continue
50:27first we'll continue doing what you're doing I mean this is one of the world's
50:30great companies and you're empowering literally now billions of people around
50:35the world to find knowledge more quickly I mean it's up to the double incredible
50:42what has been created it in this organization so so keep doing that
50:48continue being not evil it's hard actually when you become a when you're
50:52become public company and stay curious that's the single biggest thing I just
50:58passionately believe in the power of curiosity 22 to lead things that are
51:04special I mean the more you know the more interesting the world gets to stay
51:09curious Chris thank you for the gift of Ted and thank you for being with us here
51:14today
0:00以及良好的周五下午好，欢迎你们到另一个令人兴奋的加入
0:06在谷歌的作者今天在这里我们从谷歌的精彩源自芝加哥
0:11办公室掌声我会是你一天推定主持人
0:21使用一天，吉姆Liske的时代精神字
0:24而我们今天的嘉宾是我们克里斯·安德森Chris是尖端的馆长
0:30会议并已自2002年之后漫长而成功的职业生涯
0:35在出版业，我们将讨论一点点关于今天
0:39克里斯已经发展成为头一个全球性的平台，识别和
0:45传播理念值得推广的欢迎克里斯
0:53如此之大，让您与我们不知，也许如果你告诉我们可以上手
0:59我们介绍一下你的背景我一点点我提出版如何做了
1:04哲学专业和出版商来引领和世界上最伟大的转变
1:09数码品牌不同的长扭曲的旅程是一个新闻记者地区
1:15当我走出大学和我做了购买的一个错误
1:20早期的计算机就像一个坦迪TRS 80克隆，我被这件事情我镇住
1:27稍后可以早日完成水平和和哥伦布，以很短的导火索
1:33电脑杂志，我喜欢这一点，于是我决定这是一个公共服务
1:39公司出版的杂志奇怪的是它的工作和了解起飞
1:44所以它就像出版的部分只是建立很多很多的这些
1:48西爱好者的杂志是深深地给大家带来了他们的人
1:53是针对他们的，所以我们有这个，我们这样做是为了我们，她与媒体
1:59激情就是这样一直是我的我的口头禅作为一个作为一个企业家是
2:05激情，你可以找到的东西，人真的热爱这
2:09密封线索，有那种代理的潜力，所以，当我第一次
2:15来到特德于1998年
2:18那时，你知道是开始84没什么，当然互联网是上
2:24这是一个年度会议就是它了，为什么我在98去那里带来了
2:29在一起科技娱乐设计的盖德和家庭来和我看到的是
2:37这种激情的人是如此热衷于它像这是我最好的一周
2:42今年但却是这样的线索，所以当有机会从买
2:49它的发现，65岁以上的，你知道我爱它
2:53并且使发生在2001年，它的旅途此后一直长
2:57其自身之旅但这是这样的，因为我们将谈论他们的旅程
3:00那么在某种意义上，有人说，这是就当时的新动力
3:06媒体早在特别是2006年在线视频，真正让信条提振
3:11是这样的话，这就是我们绝对知道的情况下，当我
3:15买的时候一个非营利基金会我买了它，从而使该
3:21意图总是感觉就像与本灵感，你知道这是
3:25应该是为公众利益在某种程度上怀疑是在知识
3:29本次非公开会议上向世界和我们的第一次尝试这样做是在
3:33电视和电视不感兴趣
3:36选举你知道他们的讲课这有点儿无聊无趣，你听
3:41他们，但他们有兴趣和等是的，先生，当这种怪异的技术
3:47所谓的网络视频凭借其摇摇欲坠的小猫和所有这些其他
3:51事情发生走过来，也许我们可以作为实验把一些TED
3:56会谈起来可能不会工作
3:58在互联网的时间太长，你知道这会是他们的生活视频
4:03我们的运动这些东西去病毒等那是在2006年，我们决定，我们不得不
4:08泰德翻转其头部时，不再只是一个发布会上，媒体机构
4:14致力于分享想法和所以我们在这个基础上一点点，你知道你
4:19描述一下它用于T ED但你如何谈论它的意义了
4:24目的是品牌的立场
4:28代表中的方式将知识的同时，人们可以
4:32理解你知道这个世界真的很复杂，大部分的时候，我们去
4:37深，你知道你必须知道你深挖超出的机会的东西
4:41你了解你的专业很好，这就是大多数事情是如何运作的
4:44夏天的会议操作，你所知道的大学课程，无论那是什么
4:48你所要做的，但有上下文的地方真正了解世界
4:55其中你需要去国外在这
4:57实际上当你从汇集的知识很多其他的事情发生
5:01不同地区你得到的新思路催化你得到的可能
5:06合作，我认为这是什么那是什么我突然就是为什么特德
5:13发挥作用但只是没有太多的这种情况发生，因此，如果你能说服
5:17人们从这些两个领域走到一起，并解释说，激情
5:21关于如何其实我可以理解，我想你知道，
5:25不同几天的例子，有发送这些斑点的效果的
5:29脑你只是认为这是给你没有想到过，这也正是
5:34它代表了回来和聊天一点点的在第二个关于你知道
5:38这些如何谈判的权力是建立在理解的想法，但我想
5:42追求你提到你知道大部分的多数协作字
5:47我们的观众是没有实际出席会议的快感
5:50当他们在长滩现在又回到温哥华，以便你能可能
5:53支付的不仅是舞台上的音箱小图片，我们可以
5:57通过观看视频中看到，但它是一个完整的福特事件的协作
6:02在晚宴和和关键也许那一周，以便在发生什么的图片是
6:07所以这是它的它的四个半十岁上下的天他们繁忙的12个主要会议
6:13泰德每个会话是一个小时45分钟，它的五至六个扬声器+
6:18扔在那里等表演和东西，所以这是相当快速移动的什么
6:24什么是不寻常的是每个人都看到每一个扬声器是一个轨道和
6:29这通常不会发生，但希望这是它的全部意义就是你
6:33都应该接触到的东西，你不知道你有兴趣和
6:37这是它的它已经成为老生常谈特德说，你觉得会是要去
6:40最无聊的那个吹你走一个，因此令人惊讶的人都犯
6:45在来每一届会议，这意味着，你不能共享的对话
6:50在中后走廊和合作是我们，我们只是停留它只是
6:56恰巧，暴露于这些不同的扬声器的组合和
7:01想法是一个点圈和人
7:05在我的工作，一个奇怪的项目，现在是II早就听说你的情况下，
7:11劝阻或不允许数字设备或现场啁啾或摄像机
7:17这些东西还挺在客房，是分开的情况下，从背面有两个
7:21行，如果他们，如果他们想你的人能做到这一点知道更多在夏季
7:25成本基础，但在主剧场现在我们说，因为生活中的一个，现在是
7:32这种关注战争和谈判是奇怪的事情你知道他们往往采取
7:39同时，建立共享的某些真正的大想法，真正重要的你
7:44有时必须建立环境你必须去通过现金90秒什么
7:48一个有点挑战性无聊了一分钟，如果人们只是去检查我的电子邮件
7:53只为这一刻他们错过了几个关键的接触和消失，然后
7:58说话从来土地，更重要的是他们身后的五人作为排序
8:01恼火和它发出的一个信号，这是不是很有趣所以
8:05其他人决定是不是很有趣你现在你是一个
8:09超个体您实际上他们不干净意识到这一点你
8:13你喂养过对方你从对方采取的线索，这就是
8:17发生在所有我想是这样
8:18所以我们试图具有正常的合同观众你是一个不同的合同
8:23其实要去尝试，你可以给你的充分重视扬声器18
8:27音箱分钟
8:28连续数月的血腥很难产生你的生活的谈话，自己
8:32是否值得，这就是你知道其实问这个问题的处理仅仅是一个
8:36不那么微妙的暗示我们今天的观众
8:38我来到谷歌
8:49所以也许关于谁得到简单的问题一点点做10怎么说话
8:55你决定
8:57有人谁在做惊人的工作，其他人需要知道休息
9:02详细介绍了这是很难决定谁的人是正确的，我们得到万
9:06从去年的建议来自世界各地的人们，我们有一个团队策
9:11试图参加一个会议试图编织形式的混合
9:15周围人的这个主题是一起一大碗的梦想，但梦想
9:21有没有算法，它但它是一种COS的，我们希望程序
9:31另外我想了很多的事件仍然要做到这一点，我们要捅在每
9:36人们心目中的不同部分，你知道它不能只是你知道
9:40政治或任何评书这是它自己的矿山的不同部位
9:46当你开始去审美或两个经营
9:49鼓舞人心的故事在这里的水是一个复杂的，你知道是科学问题
9:54在解决有有有来自能源，所以它的
9:59不只是你把谁的话想的方式，我听到他们序列
10:05你曾经说，这是过滤网你怎么把它但一考虑
10:10你在决定一个扬声器看看谁是将受益
10:15听到这个想法是，它只是你的是，它只是你的团队的调整
10:19组织或右侧，这样，实际上是我会说，是多少
10:24一个通知到扬声器件事是这本书是它的如此诱人
10:30作为演讲者你觉得嘿，我得到了一个机会，所以我打算用它来
10:35宣传我的企业我的衣服，在这个过程中，我要抓住这个机会
10:41是一个原因，我可以
10:44而就是这样的，所以很多人落入陷阱，这是和它的
10:48非常适得其反，因为它实际上是关闭了观众们
10:53不知道你是否能做到这一点的其他方式，如果你可以从明确
10:57一开始，你在正对舞台目的是给东西给
11:02人的礼物，我得到的东西，你知道，如果他们知道这会使
11:06他们的生活带来变化都围绕我们的世界观不同
11:13知识是指不同的生活意味着做不同的事情，也许几年
11:16进去以后让这样一来的礼物，我想，如果我们如果我们没有看到
11:22在扬声器，如果我们还在为一分钟，他们是在它自我宣传
11:26目的
11:27主要感兴趣的权利，这是很好的建议不只是在你的舞台
11:31会议一般我想我想一般，我认为绝对一般
11:35甚至坦言，即使你想卖的东西最好的销售人不
11:40来吧，说嘿这里是我得到了什么
11:42他们说什么，你热爱的事的，你想想你是什么
11:48需要时，你可以看到我是如何能帮助你知道这么绝对每家每户
11:54扬声器应考虑观众和以及他们能够提供在
12:00在口语能力来说交付方面你如何评价自己和我
12:05极大地认为在卖你的权力在不自然的魅力扬声器
12:11在某种意义上某种意义上你的前任是一个有魅力的外向
12:15但你已经在过去的十几个或更多这真棒场边座位
12:21看着年伟大的演说家，所以如果你看到什么，你知道常年
12:27你辩论，你知道它是一个自然的或没有，或者你可以学习与否
12:33有些你认识的人只能得到到目前为止是一个很好的演讲者什么是什么是你的
12:37点上违反自然培育和我相信，唯一的事情，你
12:42需要给一个伟大的谈话是你需要的知识
12:48你需要，你需要做了一些值得更广阔的领域我救援工作
12:57老实说，谈话可以传授，因为你想要的方式的最后一件事是
13:02大家学习某种来讲，我们的风格不希望想起
13:06说作为绩效那肯定是有些人谁是
13:09自然的表演和谁可以在瞬间在顺利在一个美丽的
13:17优雅的一句话是从哪儿冒出来并通过他们，以便有有
13:21不是每个人大概可以做到这一点，但是这是我们不希望做一件好事
13:26它会得到耗尽老老实实什么什么，你想要的是各种各样的
13:30不同的人不同的技能不同的停止分差
13:34说话的风格你想要的是你要谁在乎什么人真伪
13:39即使他们有通过在所有胃病的方式，如果你正在学习
13:43东西是如此梦幻般的三只觉得激情这一点，
13:48这是一个这是一个悲剧，有在这么多的人在那里
13:52世界，我敢打赌，在这里还有人在这，你知道我们是领先的公司
13:56在自信，当谈到公开演讲
14:00尽管有一些真正有价值的分享的东西，如果当
14:05世界其他国家，因此也许，如果你告诉我们关于两个人一点点
14:14谁我猜适合这两方面的配置文件是您刚才介绍的原型
14:18也许肯·罗宾逊爵士是那些谁可以塞东西的天赋的1
14:23出来，也许有人小时候比较犹豫像莫妮卡·莱温斯基也许只是
14:27告诉我们一点关于你知道这两个例子来说明你的
14:30点我的意思是第二个一人出现在2006年告诉
14:35你知道他已经被评为欧洲最好的，因为我是一个
14:40有点怀疑，因为我以为他会来到这里，但你知道他
14:46拖着走上舞台，他说你知道不就已经吹走其实
14:54我要离开和能力咯咯地笑，然后他们在接下来的10分钟，他们
14:59只是没有开始大笑
15:01他只是告诉故事关于孩子的故事，之后，我们都希望它去
15:06永远有一个或感情，他能够给我们这个非常
15:10鼓舞人心的故事的说法，创造力是完全和教
15:17学校营养不良，而且有这么多的人产生共鸣这么深
15:21因此2006年不，你知道它被告知有一百多人，现在是
15:27百人每隔一小时手表在网上谈论你知道这些年
15:31后来，他的高达38万元不管它是什么
15:34莱温斯基吓坏显而易见的原因来你知道她会
15:40她一直稳步看不见了十年的最好的部分，并与她，她
15:47充满激情对某些事情，但网络欺凌的这个问题，但它采取
15:51很大的勇气让她来提高她的声音，自然进入
15:55会议
15:56天哪，如果你知道这是一个很大的公共舞台1视频是真的很难
16:01我认为她几乎拉出了几次，但什么握着她的存在
16:05是一个平均狗屎，她在这件事上，你知道回到她写剧本
16:14那种在服务和/或想法给这个做了一个很大的区别
16:17在练习呼吸之前的任何物理方面的东西漫
16:22公社一天，她在她说话她
16:25结构巧妙，使我们的友谊非常个人解除
16:29在第一分钟的故事右或两个有每个人都笑了，并在该
16:35那一刻，你告诉我，你知道她只是放松，知道她她有它，
16:38这样的谈话是不平凡的一个已经由八百万人看到
16:42现在，它真的改变了很多人都以为她和很多
16:46人想过这个问题，所以我肯定地说，她可以克服
16:50在这里她的恐惧任何人谁是害怕说话你能不能谈一些
16:55那些她用一些伟大的粘短语约定我记得一个
16:59这与我挂她自称我觉得网络的病人零
17:04欺凌
17:05因此，带来了新的教练自然的问题扬声器做你写
17:11脚本你编辑的脚本对其进行审查，或在我们他们的脚本
17:16或者这一切即兴所以它在不同的情况下，在大多数
17:21情况下，有秘密，我们没有在我们邀请的第一个地方把它们写
17:26草案如果我们不认为这是相当，我们通常可以修改建议
17:32广泛偶尔行由行，你知道我的意思是最难的事情
17:39音箱实际上是调整谈话的范围，以适应18分钟左右
17:44人们说这是未来的大谈我所以在我的生活中许多事情我很自豪
17:49的，我想与他的小组一般莫瑞兰共享以某种方式或其他与
17:54这意味着，一切都被处理了，你知道卡住的下
18:00解释说，这样的最难的事情太过切割出来的不同
18:04切割出来重点放在你最热情的和一个想法
18:09因此，给我们足够的时间把它解压到正常，你知道设置
18:13的背景下，为什么这件事情为什么我关心它为什么要你照顾
18:16它是如何在历史上的解决，为什么这项工作没有自旋什么
18:20可以工作，现在这里有这样一个例子就是我们要做到这一切的
18:25事情是什么使生动的和可操作的想法，所以这是这就是
18:31最难的地方，人们只是来太多通常说，这是
18:37著名如果，如果我有联系，如果我有时间我会写准确
18:43的呈现方式正是这样的条款
18:48我给你排序，当然极的灰色之间，但许多阴影
18:52还有我设法进来与完整的脚本一切音箱
18:58在赋时完全记忆17分钟59秒写好实践和
19:04其召回按下按钮，所有千言万语出来，他们是
19:08可能其他人谁了一系列故事或要点或进来
19:12草图，他们还挺知道他们想掩盖和10留有一些
19:15自发性月双方鼓励双方既可以工作中，我们同时看到我们鼓励
19:22无论而且两者可以同时工作随心陷阱陷阱在中间之间发生
19:31两个单元格，这样，我认为我们尝试和谈话的的类型
19:36鼓励是我打算记住这一点，但我还是有点
19:42强调我不太那里，观众可以共享一样，如果你
19:46开始给你的谈话，然后你的眼睛卷起了一下，然后让我
19:54重新开始的那款，突然人有令人作呕的感觉哦，我的
19:58善良是背诵和和和的方式生活就熄灭它，因为
20:03你要的是这个人活在此刻此地的方式，你知道这是它的一个
20:09可爱的你知道像我觉得这发生这种情况在生活和人民希望
20:15我是在看一个活人的头脑作出判断，现在和解码
20:21很难在我的绍纳语看这里，但你知道做一个判断，现在大约
20:24你是否能信任我，这是很难做到的，如果你认为有人调整你
20:30却不能，所以如果你在该模式下，你自己必须做什么，你不撕
20:36它并回到你双降在你的排练笔记和你自己
20:41谈话你让你的一部分，这样当你在运行
20:44你知道这是不容易的它不是在所有的公寓还记得你说你知道
20:48接下来会发生什么它它就在那里，你可以再次聚焦意义
20:52想与你连接，因为通过另一个我认为它这个
20:56特别的想法是正确的，你现在和扬声器能得到点
21:01这样做，我想大概大多数TED演讲被存储小
21:05他们中的一些不听起来有点机器人和你认识的人推
21:11回防，他们大多数人都知道你真的觉得在场的激情和
21:16它在其执政的走另一条路的危险是，你可以，你絮絮叨叨
21:22可去了，你可能会错过一些，你要说好你的关键的东西
21:26可能会错过真正使用最好的语言说，他们希望有机会
21:29真正解释清楚，另一方面的东西也可以是生活时尚
21:34有些人真的可以做到这一点非常好，但我会说的人谁是策划
21:38从要点说话是它仍然排练它，你知道再见
21:44排练，即使它是三四次就在你的卧室与南方
21:49在他们的记录，你知道你会在那里找到了的时刻，它会
21:55改变你和拥有的谈话你我的行动无论哪种方式，并获得了
22:02地步，你觉得你真的知道你知道你只是知道它，
22:07然后，那么你就可以专注于连接意味着让我们进入书
22:13多一点我的意思是这是在优秀的书的一些内容是
22:17那你已经发布，你说，每10个扬声器的目标是种植
22:22一个有力的想法是和本书的种子开始解压的方式来做到这一点
22:27让我想解决的第一个大象和猴子在这里是有一个
22:31配方植物种子现在有没有公式，我认为我认为第一
22:36需要注意的是，这是一个奇迹，你可以做什么是我的想法
22:40可以，你可以，你可以采取喜欢这个主意
22:42民主国家，如果你可以，如果你可以看看，如果你能颜色脆弱的右
22:46在你的大脑看看什么是真正的结论是，在人的代码
22:50大脑我猜想，包括对数以百万计的你
22:53奇特的复杂格局但不知何故在18分钟的演讲或更低
22:59音箱可以将整个模式
23:02进入我们的脑海中似乎是一件不可能的事情，只有当它发生它能做的是
23:08因为我们要的语言确实如此，所以你正在构建这种模式的元素
23:13在头脑中已经存在你的财宝就是把它们放在一起
23:16但要做到这一点，你必须是令人难以置信的纪律有关记住它的
23:22这是他们的语言观念，你不能从你不那么建设
23:26你对你的假设慢跑那是那是什么可以杀死一个解释，
23:34而且也因为知识，几乎每个人的认知这个错误
23:39患有并且是忘记什么感觉不知道的倾向
23:43一些你知道你们听到你生活在一个世界里，你知道这是
23:47天然产物和编码你知道无论你花了谈话
23:53人在其他地方，并且只使用一个比如你无聊之人
23:58因为你错过了一些东西，他们不明白为什么这件事情
24:03什么背景是我们做这一切的时候，因此使扬声器试谈
24:10出来的人谁是不是在你的正常循环，但谁可能是喜欢的人
24:14在观众如果他们得到它，你种得做到这一点，所以你交谈
24:18有关如何使用熟悉的概念隐喻为桥梁，以得到一点点
24:25复杂的主题横跨可以有效的权利，所以我认为这个比喻是怎么样的
24:30就像一个模板，你已经有了这些不同的元素都在想法
24:34一个人的头脑和一个比喻说明他们是如何连接在一起的形状
24:38熟悉的，让你得到它，所以你知道詹妮弗·科恩的科普作家试图
24:43向我们解释，最后头，我们已经有一些科学家试图
24:47解释说，他们得到了非常复杂的极其复杂的科学
24:51的DNA等
24:53她说没有看起来像一个字处理器的吉娜，你不能使用
24:58克里斯托弗剪切和粘贴任何基因任何你想要的部分或任何后者
25:02前哇什么进程去健身房，我得到它
25:07功能强大，强大，以及例子，以确保你的排序
25:12你在知识评论，所以这是我的意思对方之一
25:17惯例是，你在书中谈到了越来越个人设备
25:23你提到莱温斯基开了她的谈话与一个人的故事是什么
25:27是你的经验，你的建议使用个人轶事或个人
25:31经验往往是你知道的扬声器上来，说我我我我我的建议
25:35关闭观众是的，如果你觉得喇叭说这是所有关于
25:41我是一个倒胃口，但我认为这是有设法化解案件
25:47怀疑和不信任，如果你想想看，如果试图以这一议程
25:53建设一个想法在别人的心里很亲密的人持怀疑态度
25:58让一个陌生人可以闲逛自己的品牌实验室的使命等内
26:02首先有一种学习信任和说的过程中
26:08办信任这个人死于类似这样的人，我想开到这个人
26:12你需要一个开放的情况发生，如果解释发生不能
26:18推动知识转化为大脑中被拉出，因此个人是这样的
26:24建立这种信任，所以它不是那么仅这不是说让我的人
26:29告诉你关于我的它更是在多个人的方式说为什么这个
26:35不是没有显示，但仅仅只是显示一种非正式方式，
26:40运行起始于概念层次是它好像是说嘿，我们马上去
26:44在旅途在一起你知道喜欢去的方式它会很有趣
26:50你应该跟我来，我只是试图说服人们离开我
26:55提醒大家在几分钟之内，我们将采取在问题
26:58麦克风这里，所以有您的问题准备好一两分钟的时
27:02他们真的是有力的共鸣与概念在书中是这样的
27:06贯穿生活的概念
27:08解释说，400如果它是正确的谈话应该是关于建立一个想法
27:16人们心中的一切，然后在谈话需要连接到你的想法
27:21把它当作你的通过线等事情是不是那得到削减部分
27:26出来，但随后一切连接，当你想到什么
27:31在一次谈话发生的事情你正在做的这个非常复杂的三维物体
27:35一个想法，你试图转移你的方式做到这一点作为一个
27:39小伙子一维流所以它是它固有的高，你有什么
27:43要做到这一点，他的牙齿阅读的方式这些词在这里很清楚了每个
27:48部分相关的，所以如果你打算给需要明确一个反例
27:52那这就是你做什么演唱会
27:56联系方式显示，这是它是什么，你知道这是一则轶事的人需要得到
28:02这是如何感涉及什么样对我很喜欢，否则发生
28:07你的声音，这是还挺有道理，但这些作品适合
28:12现在一起丢失的狗的感觉，他们会觉得作品是有，但它
28:15不得很好，这本书是你也谈到了这本书
28:20强大的演讲设备发现和探索断开或似乎
28:27断开在一个共同的世界观是劝导说服说服别人
28:34或者你首先要告诉他们，他们认为现在不
28:39真正弄懂这样我们就可以阻止一个人的世界观，需要调整
28:44你知道你做你真的愿意相信这是怎么了一致
28:49并说，这奇妙的功能无辜挑逗一些会谈
28:54友好的，但在强大的方式只是显示你知道这一定是
28:59遵守，即斯托克斯好奇心，一旦你知道的，一旦这个概念
29:05知识差距一旦你知道在你的心中这方面的知识差距，你
29:09只是本能地要关闭它，我不除了喜欢这个
29:18谈到自己，你已经做了扩展，我们已经讨论过这个品牌的出色的工作
29:24有关投入这些视频这些会谈网上肯定是书，
29:27我们今天要谈的，但有特德点¯x特德播出一些其他的
29:33品牌线延伸，如果你也许谈一些的一些
29:36这些你怎么看这些配件在凤凰城的配件只是放弃
29:42这些内容我们已经成为痴迷于电源送东西给别人
29:46在所连接的年龄，所以我们认为我们会给你你知道一个品牌
29:51似乎并不像乍那璀璨的想法，但她增加了一个额外的标签
29:57现存的自组织，如果你希望做一个双象日期
30:01世界各地的事件，你知道，我们会给你一个许可证做它的到
30:04你和惊人的三千这些现在每年所以是九每
30:09一天左右，显然，我们就可以做到这一点像我有十五个人新
30:15纽约谁是监督三千今年这是因为权力的
30:21运动使这些事件从填写悉尼歌剧院最终去
30:26监狱或爸爸或任何绝对是我我们只是喜欢看发生了什么
30:35这有关于YouTube非常感谢你的主要分布
30:39车辆在此有超过60,000会谈，并和许多他们得到一个
30:44大量的使用了这一直是一个惊心动魄成立
30:47和互联网只是被臻于出来的品牌，以青年观众，
30:52而不是在一个阶段的谈判，我们是说，有你最好的老师
30:57教训五，六分钟，以激发好奇心并非由于谷歌的知识
31:03不再是一个问题的权利
31:06每个人都可以访问世界上所有的知识，由于某种原因，教育工作者
31:10还没有完全走到今年而言，我们仍然认为教育是试图
31:15果酱知识转化为大脑填满它
31:18应该不是，应该是都应该是关于培育正确的那种
31:21以正确的方式好奇提问中带来的正确方法
31:24正确的知识，这些都是好奇的停车场和动画但却从
31:31老师的话最好，所以我们必须在一个伟大的老师谁的快感
31:35整个职业生涯中的第一个小时已经达到5000孩子在最突然的
31:41他们的在线交谈，他们达到50000及其对他们的痛苦，
31:45它的乐趣，治疗和教育和学习已久的部分我会
31:51建议的核心租户或精华之一的泰德我的意思很明显
31:54从一开始，但也许卖汗萨尔曼·汗是是一个最
32:00卓越的来了，谈到了教育的经验之一与
32:04他和他做了什么，它是在我看来，如此普遍的是，你知道
32:08一个真正的全球性的英雄我的意思是对冲基金经理你知道放弃他的生命
32:14教育他的侄子，然后世界，这是它的它真是不可思议
32:20一个人可以做到这一点，他的他开始与一个只有电源
32:26视频，然后在这个理念的掌握，使人们在学习的加入
32:31自己的节奏这就是视频的真正威力在于，它是没有意义的给力
32:36预算孩子学习同样的速度有不同的影像，可以使
32:39他们不时脱钩，并找到自己的节奏，并且允许
32:44人谁也休想鼓起主题在自己的时间所以它的
32:48令人难以置信的，他给了一个很有启发谈话在TED顺便说他有最好的
32:52在这本书是单引号
32:55你知道当你当你得到所有只要做你自己，你知道的一样，如果你
32:59有创造力的人是一个创造性的人，如果你是一个幽默的人体标本
33:03你知道，如果你是一个可怕的人，但是人是很好的意见和
33:10在某种意义上我的意思是什么什么在你的舞台开始出现了
33:13革命在学习上有超过几个学区谁拥有更多
33:17所谓翻转课堂，你知道作业是看celkon到
33:23吸收信息，然后在类本身就是实践相
33:27什么，我们都学会了你白天回家，在实践学习
33:30晚
33:30是的，这必须要非常喜人之类的话时，你谈论的想法
33:34值得推广是的，我认为这是一个强大的，我认为它仍然是初期
33:38并有大量的无聊版本，我认为这是非常令人兴奋
33:41已经有过，你会非常希望有任何探索的主题领域
33:47整个舞台上的特德处理器，但你有没有刚发现相当
33:51右扬声器或者你想过潜入我没有一个区域
33:56舒适为大家带来的阶段没有任何以类似的方式与我们你
34:03知道就像作为一种那些谁使用趴在他的学生的地板
34:09房间试图了解与生病的意识世界，你知道谁是
34:15到底是我们知道它没有做任何事情，它没有任何意义，然后
34:19所有通过意识科学定义的所有作者，你
34:24得到的复杂性一定程度的决策谷歌本身就是
34:27有意识的，现在也许是我们没有，我们不知道，但我的意思是你
34:32知道II是一个非常困难的问题，我们已经我们已经在几个音箱
34:36但我想我会更爱那这有点自私一点我的意思
34:40什么是政治正确的辛苦我们，我们在许多方面泰德是这种逸出
34:46从我们在有线电视听到24 7咆哮，有一些关于
34:52某些主题，迫使人们进入一个部落的模式，这是非常令人痛心
34:56将被停止
34:57相互推理和共享I D
35:00迪亚兹并开始互相喊，只是占用的位置，所以我们
35:05没有传统的政治会谈型我很想找到更多的人
35:09谁又能框架看政治的方式来弥补，不同的方式
35:15还等什么，我们一直在寻找出这一点，但它很难很难做到
35:19我们请我们的观众拿出麦克风，问一些问题
35:23和他们做你提到的科学你知道有不少
35:29他对你用今天的例子中他们是相当多的重型
35:32科学主题但有很多不同的观点，我们可以挑
35:38全球变暖是它是不是这样的东西你有一个科学的
35:42身体评论排序科学的真实性，或者一个人如何知道成
35:47这些深层次的话题，如果是真正的科学或歪斜科学或个人点
35:52查看我的意思是我们致力于真正的标志原则上什么是真正的科学是一
35:58即使是科学家们争论的事啊，我们没有一个正式的流程
36:02这样做我们一直在思考这个在雇用一个科学的过程
36:08策展人和那个人就会有一批顾问，以及你知道
36:16本周我们当然看，我认为科学没有10号的地方
36:22现阶段还有另一个惊人这种情况发生里这么多辉煌
36:25科学家在那里谁拥有令人难以置信的知识共享，而无需去
36:30人们也许公众会最终误导但什么线路
36:35两者之间仅仅是判断事情啊，当我最喜欢的一个
36:39会谈是一个年轻十岁，我认为你从非洲就不知你
36:45会告诉这个故事的观众，看到他惊人的男孩理查德·哈利
36:52想想我们到了测试页，但当时12，但早前他
36:57做他自学了电子通过拆开他的父母收音机是必须的
37:03就像他住在小定居内罗毕以外试图保护
37:09从石狮牛和他想通了，摇头灯吓坏了
37:17这些线路不知何故，他从零件拉，他发现了一个太阳能供电
37:22灯闪蒸器，并会吓跑联盟，你知道
37:28环境太高兴了，因为村庄没有走出去，杀
37:31狮子和跨区域肯尼亚本发明蔓延，但我们见面时
37:36这小子在内罗毕，他几乎说不出话来，你不能让这个故事了
37:43吓坏了，并把他的地步，他得到的过程
37:49对他生命中的第一次飞机来到加利福尼亚州和地方
37:52之间
37:53将给一说起他的发明，这是他那么大作为
38:04笑容照亮了整个地方，他把这件事告诉了精美的，这是
38:08只是让舒适和排练，并相信在他有什么
38:11做，我认为不断说明，这不是问题的关键
38:15永远只是大牌谁可以在右侧提供一个精彩演讲
38:18意想不到的人往往是最大的惊喜绝对
38:22会谈是你找来来自肯尼亚的这个孩子提供你提到你
38:32万想法你知道任何其他基础多久你喜欢，我们需要得到
38:37这个人，因为他们有我们希望看到在第10阶段，我的想法
38:41认为这不是60 40，我们60，我们招募的作者，并确定40老总
38:49有四十来自于人们说你知道我看到这个人，他们是
38:53惊人的，你必须把他们太累了，人大概百分之五谁
38:58说嘿，我已经准备好了第10期和其中的一些是巨大的
39:01但其中一些是，这让你这么多，在这里和共享
39:10我们我爱过的人这是我个人的目标之一，真正抽出时间我
39:16一天这样做，因为我觉得他们是如此宝贵的我很好奇，如果你能
39:20分享任何最新发展动向是什么，我们可以期待在今年的TED或只是一些
39:26想法的话题，可能是新进入的，我们可以期待下一次的时候
39:32今年的泰德是球队未来的你，所以这将是更
39:37个人比一些更安全的个人带走，你如何使用它，但它
39:42一切事情，从将是非常酷上来太技术
39:47文字排序生活的黑客，你可以用它来度过这一充满挑战
39:52世界上是没有在医学进步等，使这是这样的
39:58它的方向就不会主题是有点像一个不寻常的调整
40:03内容是你不知道这是它的施舍你在同类型腭知道
40:09从上其他10个谈判条款被认为是即将到来
40:13那么让我们来看看詹妮弗利弊克里斯·贝尔纳尔基因驱动器即将现身
40:21我认为这是这是一个令人难以置信的美丽在一个非常强大的解释
40:26的问题，我们都需要被考虑这个奇妙谈格格不入
40:30未来，如果你还没有看到它上观看拖沓城市谈话
40:39你知道我们都这样，你得到一个
40:44他一拖再拖直到喜欢前一周则实现了发布会
40:59它不存在
41:00飞进这种恐慌，最终想出一个杰作是当它是
41:05非常好它这里得到了我想要成为一般媒体正在
41:10被问及一般的话语和社交媒体和新闻
41:13渠道和它差不多是这样，如果他们正在鼓励极端分子
41:17思考，而不是任何人的，因为极限思维和不可接受的
41:22两种方法欧盟，甚至像段和新闻频道几乎
41:29落在新的销售更多的广告做，这是最大的媒体626选择怎么办
41:41我们得到这样细致入微的讨论出来给大家，并且到达通道
41:46更重要的是正确的你有没有谈论这个问题是一个问题，
41:51现在是一个问题，我认为这是它的一个它的不断移动我的权利
41:58意味着有很多的对话，我们一直是我想的事情之一
42:02其中我想我希望的是，我们正在这个世界是你知道我
42:07认为视频会发挥更大的作用更大了与如果您认为您的
42:12创始人和科堡，并有跨越每平方低频段的低成本宽带
42:19地球和和英寸我想你可以在那里人们想象未来
42:24是的，他们还在这里
42:25屏幕但他们所看到另一个人的面孔在他们回头看
42:29当这种情况发生了一些传统的一些，但他们的Perforce
42:33标准，而你知道，我们如何看待我们如何很深运行的东西
42:40与对方在一个临时搭建的互动，你知道，有一个更大的溢价
42:44信任和尊重等等，但我不知道，我想这是所有玩
42:50为我做二认为
42:53我想起那个II看到了一些希望的事情之一是，当你的时候
42:58又当战斗是关于什么的人会点击驱动一定
43:03行为的类型的驱动它像一个极端，如果你喜欢我的大脑蜥
43:07行为
43:07戏剧性的，你知道什么，而且，导致你知道5
43:14名人性感的秘密，你知道吗？坦率地摧毁互联网，如果您
43:19你们可以请谷歌出来，但是当，当你去共享的社会
43:27媒体分享他们的是更多人的认同，我认为
43:32引发人们心目中的一个不同的一部分，它更多地反映和选择
43:38我认为这类型的内容是多么有用的故事和东西做结束
43:43流传在社交媒体上精美的，所以你知道它不是一个问题的答案
43:48但重要的是这是一个很长的谈话种行为和我的
43:54意思是，也许一个技术专家，我们并不认为技术创新是好的，但
43:56也许技术各种各样的事情，这是完全可能的，我们
44:05最终那名梦游到未来我们不这样做的赛车技术
44:11其实是想和你们比任何其他在世界上更需要思考的问题
44:15每一天都是仅仅因为一些作品在当下，人们希望它
44:20喜欢它并不意味着有将是可怕的意外
44:23生活在这儿的这种后果，就是这样一个有趣的方式来度过一个下午我
44:29问题是，我想大家都有，我们重读故事，并跟你
44:34重温得到启发到我的问题您有任何TED演讲在你发现
44:40自己自由观看一遍又一遍，这真的感动你在一些
44:43顺便再有什么其他的说书人甚至外特德
44:48你真的很佩服
44:51使这就是为什么我不知道，如果我没有看到你在第二个我有一个
44:56在手机上很好地回答我第一个真正由大卫德语交谈，我
45:02真的很喜欢所以是一个物理学家，他非常高兴，他这给了这次谈话
45:08基本主张，我们是不是化学物质来对一个随机的星球在
45:13宇宙霍金说，但是实际的知识就是力量
45:20潜在的普遍影响力和所以这是强大的，他有这个
45:26在它结束的话说，是美妙的语句是一个共同定义
45:30乐观的，我认为他说，在石牌刻看其中一人说：
45:34他们的问题是不可避免的一个人说的问题都是可以解决的，并和我认为
45:40什么，说的是不是那种俗套的，有一个
45:45技术解决方案，以每一个问题我认为这是真的惹恼人
45:50它说的是，这是正确的采取的立场没有在世界上被殴打
45:58的东西，确定有问题，总是会有问题，我们
46:01实际上无法做到在解决这些问题的产生裂纹，如果它是因为如果我们继续
46:05思考和保持它非常细致和华丽的祝词晚上守和
46:12在讲故事的人
46:13你知道你的所有领域她的书智人是惊人的，他讲述了一个故事
46:17我们作为一个物种，他告诉它不平凡的语言，并连接
46:22的事情，你永远不会想象连接，我不会推荐它
46:26强烈感谢的算法来使提及我们生活的世界
46:35我觉得很难为个人拥有的实际真相或现实感
46:40某些东西，所以例如，当我观看YouTube上的TED演讲是过来
46:45对技术指标，或只是我碰巧看了几
46:49技术TED演讲，这就是YouTube建议我，所以我可能我的问题
46:55是肯定你的观点里面特德超过指数和肯定
47:01 100 X和其他再坐视不理，让你知道群众订购
47:07请问这是YouTube的我们的生活完全在这里怪你知道YouTube是一个
47:15个性化的东西，所以你看什么辉煌的职业就是它会
47:19如果你如果你去ted.com并键入单词幸福为您提供
47:24例如，你会看到一个吨左右，幸福会谈这其中我想如果
47:28任何人的告诉你，我第一次要说开始其一端
47:31幸福不是那些十几种不同的方法来它是
47:35不同的，你知道，我我喜欢这个会谈和个性化的东西通过
47:40你知道的方式，我希望能有一个默认的YouTube上，你的设置
47:45可以说，其实我想被催化你知道我...我不是我不
47:50希望你能承担的唯一谁我点击我要催化5广阔
47:56知识你能做到这一点，我和我我想很多人会认为，
48:00该设置谢谢非常感谢你的光临我敢肯定，你听说过
48:11从让人匪夷所思的故事各地世界社会团体
48:15泰德是如何影响他们做你最喜欢样的故事，你听说过
48:21有很多很多人只是碰巧在个人层面上
48:28被怀疑观察员是从事代理和我泰德泰德newspeople
48:37喜欢看，有有一个那里的女服务员服务我们
48:44在我耳边低声说，她应该看在出席TED演讲，今年
48:47是我认为她是一个波兰移民和她，她来过美国
48:53流浪了一段时间，和她的儿子已经把她介绍给爸爸和它几乎
49:00像她她是那种偷偷小时在无家可归者收容所一会儿
49:05某种程度上看，你知道借来的iPad TED演讲或东西，以及和
49:10她是她哭了，所以我们都哭了，它不喜欢我我我爱
49:15这种传播是有你想要谁这么多的人去学习她如何
49:19觉得什么，她从得到的是权力的我无家可归感
49:23但现在这不是我是谁，我可以，我可以比这多很多，我想
49:28他们很像是个人层面的故事，这就是为什么我们做什么
49:33我们这样做，并且引出了我们的最后一个问题是传统的
49:38问题，我们总是问我们的客人在这些作家在谷歌谈判将您
49:43愿意和大家分享的启动停止持续的东西，他们
49:47建议他们开始做站做继续做
49:51要学会更好的扬声器到植物的想法这些种子那个男人站
50:01通过你的神经被吓倒了解它的存在是有原因在于促动
50:06你在把工作产生巨大的谈话开始拿起每个人都需要
50:13世界太复杂了单一的专家来解决这些问题，
50:19需要大量的我们参与请的那继续延续部分
50:27首先，我们将继续做你正在做什么我的意思是，这是世界上的一个
50:30伟大的公司和你从字面上现在各地授权数十亿人
50:35世界找知识，更迅速地我的意思是高达令人难以置信的两倍
50:42什么在这个组织中创建它，所以记住这样做
50:48继续是不是邪恶的，很难真正当你成为当你
50:52成为公众公司，并保持好奇，那是一个最重要的事情我只是
50:58热忱地相信好奇心22的动力，引领事情是
51:04特别我的意思是你越了解更有趣的世界变得留
51:09好奇的克里斯感谢您对泰德的礼物，感谢你在这里和我们在一起
51:14今天
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