Talks at Google2016.9.2---Jeremy Miller : 巴菲特的投资基本规则

Talks at Google2016.9.2---Jeremy Miller : 巴菲特的投资基本规则
發佈日期：2016年9月2日
Jeremy Miller reflects on Mr. Buffett's partnership letters and his early investing style. He also discusses why he thinks that Mr. Buffett did the opposite of largely conventionally accepted 'rules' on investing.
About the book: Warren Buffett's Ground Rules Words of Wisdom from the Partnership Letters of the World's Greatest Investor is an "anti-Buffett" checklist for mediocracy in investment, derived from a study of the pre-Berkshire Partnership Letters. Author Jeremy Miller is an investment analyst.
杰里米米勒反映了巴菲特的合伙信件和他早期的投资风格。他还讨论了为什么他认为巴菲特对投资做的主要是传统上公认的“规则”相反。
本书简介：从世界上最伟大投资者的合作伙伴快报智慧巴菲特的基本规则的话说就是一个“反巴菲特”清单中的投资mediocracy，从前期的伯克希尔信合作的一项研究中得出。作者杰里米·米勒是一个投资分析师。



==========Google 翻译==========

0:01we have a very special guest here with us today please join me in welcoming 0:05Jeremy Miller thank you sorry but it's it's really it's a real honor to be here 0:17and and talk about the book and in my experience in in learning from the 0:25process of of studying these letters and and compiling the book you know i'm not 0:33a professional writer I view myself much more as a sort of project manager for 0:39what I saw is something that was being widely neglected by the value community 0:47and the public at large mean everyone knows about Warren Buffett's time at 0:53berkshire hathaway and how successful that's been so you know last year was 0:57the 50th anniversary of of his ascension into the Chairman role of that company 1:03so we have his 50 letters from that . but you know there was also a period 1:09between $MONTH 1956 in 1970 where he was running a partnership largely comprised 1:16of people that he knew in fact the initial investors were family members 1:20and roommates and people from Omaha that he knew folks that he was very close 1:26with and he was writing these letters to them so you can imagine trying to convey 1:32a sense of philosophy in terms of how to think about market covering this you 1:41know 14-year period 33 or so letters compared to the 50 that we've all known 1:49and loved and studied very clear closely you know there's a I just felt like 1:53there was this big swath of wisdom that was being overlooked you know coming 2:00from buffett a time when he was talking to his his family members and he was 2:06running small sums of money so the initial partnership was started with 2:13seven other people a hundred thousand dollars of of their money 2:19a hundred bucks that he threw in on his own and you know he was he also taught a 2:28class at the time so I like this slide because it sort of shows him as the 2:33teacher which which he really he really was so that it was a very productive 2:38time for warren buffett you had a twenty-nine percent compounded annual 2:44rate of return over the 14-year period he never had a down year the markets had 2:51several he never underperformed his you know hehe never underperform the market 2:59right which is just it's just really impressive and there's a quote from 1999 3:07which is obviously you know sort of towards the peak of the the nasdaq where 3:11he said if I was running small sons again today i think i could do a 3:1750-percent compounded annual return he went as far as to say that he guarantees 3:23he could do that so you know there's a lot to be explored here in terms of what 3:30you can do when you truly have a go-anywhere do-anything strategy and 3:34that's very different from you know the position that he finds himself in today 3:39where you know he's sort of saddled with more capital than ideas 3:44this is the time where his ideas far outweighed his capital right so I've 3:52organized this talk in a way that you know I ripped off from from Charlie 3:58Munger who ripped it off from Johnny Carson you know who who may have ripped 4:05it off from Carl Jacoby the famous algebra two had a view that if you 4:12really want to solve a problem one great way to go about it is to invert the 4:16question right think about it backwards so the talk that i put together you know 4:23if you really sound 4:25ways to you know avoid success in investing and then the idea is if you 4:30could just not do these three things and I'll unpack them for you 4:36you know you're going to go a long way in and finding success and so let's get 4:43started 4:44so the first one is about predictions you know we live in a 24-hour news cycle 4:50culture where people that claim themselves to be experts or are more 4:56than happy to get up on TV and hold forth on the outlook for interest rates

5:02oil prices 5:03what's going to happen with breakfast it you know all sort of backed by a wall 5:11street culture that benefits from turn in people's portfolio and you know 5:18Buffett as of you know the first meeting of the partners before even allowed them 5:26to to write the check 5:28you know said to them very specifically I'm not in the business of making 5:32predictions on the general stock market your business fluctuations if you think 5:36that I can do this or it's even necessary you know the partnership is 5:42not for you and I think that this idea 5:46well first of all so so a great way to to turn your net worth into your brokers 5:52current income is to you know trade every whim that you have you think you 5:59know okay I i have a view the you know II you you know europe uh sorry the UK 6:07is gonna to to leave the union right so I'm going to sell the market that's like 6:13a terrible idea right and and the reason for that is because you know it's it 6:19the world is full of radical uncertainty and and there's a lot of things that you 6:23can't predict so i think one of the distinguishing factors about Buffett 6:28from a very early point in his career was that he was very comfortable saying 6:33you know I have 6:35it's ok to have no idea 6:38right and and he'll say that up to today when it comes to interest rates etc it's 6:43not you know it's not about being able to predict everything it's about having 6:50confidence in what you're actually trying to protect and and really the 6:56past being the best source for you know making guesses about what's going to 7:02happen in the future and being long term in the way that you think about it so 7:07that is that is is is is number one the second really great way to destroy your 7:19net worth is to use the market as a source of information as to what you 7:26think of business is worth so yeah you know that the the average investors 7:33experience in the stock market is rather poor right I think we all know that 7:38there's a tendency to you know buy high and sell low and and it's sort of 7:45natural right I guess you know Stanford's got their their first 7:48football game coming up next friday right and so if you go to campus you 7:53know you want to find your way to the stadium the best way to do that is to 7:57sort of follow the crowd that that's not at the natural thing but in the market 8:04you know when when you're in agreement with everybody you know that could be a 8:10really dangerous thing right so i would say the the market 8:18ok so you freaky we back up a bit so if you invest in equity security buy a 8:26stock right i would encourage you to think of that as if you're buying a 8:34proportional share the assets of the company right and you know you should 8:39value that business right and and hopefully you know you're doing it in 8:46the field that you know something about so that you can make an educated 8:50guess as to what that business is worth so if you and I got together and and 8:56bought a dry-cleaning business right and someone walked in one day and said I'll 9:04give you five bucks for this place right you tell them to take a walk but it 9:12certainly won't freak you out right that your dry cleaning business is only worth 9:16five bucks right the same thing is true about the equity markets right you can't 9:23let a a market quote turn from an asset that you can utilize when it's in your 9:30favor to a liability 9:32that's going to you know take you out of the market and so that comes down to two 9:40a concept of what i would think of as true north right so if you can't use the 9:47market to tell you what something is worth you can only use the market as the 9:52price at which you have the option of transacting right then you need to be 9:59able to value the business yourself right and here you have this wonderful

10:02quote that basically says you know being right is not about being in the crowd 10:09being right is not about you know having well respected people agree with you 10:14being right is about putting your facts together right and then reasoning them 10:20through right in a sound logical manner and if you do that consistently over 10:26time right 10:29that's what's going to give you success so I just think again 22 breaks it where 10:36you know all these folks they see the television you know oh my god the 10:40world's going to come to and I mean for us were felled to create the paper on 10:46which wall street wrote reports about you know the implications of bricks it 10:50right 10:51literally I can't imagine I mean I and they all end with the same thing which 10:54is basically i think it's gonna be bad but I really have no idea right that's 10:59the conclusion so you know folks that 11:03that gets scared because of that and I think they get you know it all gets 11:10rather uh accentuated by you know the way it's it's portrayed in the media and 11:17you know ultimately 44 value investors it's about finding great companies 11:22harnessing the power of compound interest you know fidelity had this 11:25great story that I just love the best-performing fidelity counts 11:29according to a big study that they did were of the individuals who forgot that 11:35they had an account right so you know trading is not your friend listening to 11:41the market is not your friend you know try and figure out what you think I a 11:49business is worth right and then worry about your view of its intrinsic value 11:55and how it's changing over time and put the marketing side right one more one 12:00more point I'll make on this that that I really enjoy from from buffets 12:05commentary is that you know risk is oftentimes a quantifiable notion to a 12:14lot of people and buffets not very differently from the almost the very 12:17beginning right risk is not beta right beta beta is the amount by which a stock 12:24squiggles right over a certain period of time right to buff it that's not risk 12:32risk is not knowing what you're doing right so maybe you have the wrong facts 12:39maybe you've thought them through in a way that was internally unsound maybe 12:47something that you didn't consider came into the picture and your hypothesis was 12:53wrong right being wrong is risk not knowing what you don't know is risk 13:01squiggles don't matter when you know your Buffett shoes which is thinking 13:10about companies 13:12divorced of their stock price willing to cheer for them to go lower because you 13:21don't really care you don't have to sell and you're more than happy to buy more 13:24you know but found himself in these positions where he would buy a little 13:30bit and the stock would go down and his intrinsic value estimate then change so 13:35we buy a little more and it would go down and it would do so for years right 13:41and and he didn't need the market to tell me was right it was his own 13:46reasoning that led him to that conclusion 13:50the third thing that I think is a really good way to fail is to play somebody 13:56else's game and you know you you there's going to be times where value investors 14:02feel like they are out of sync with the market and its really hard i think to 14:09stick to your philosophy and your principles when you're in the sort of 14:16speculative froth of of a bull market right so we saw this at the end of of 14:23the partnership era which was as we approach 1970 you were in the and what 14:28they called the go-go phase of the market it was the the conglomerate era 14:34and it it was just predated the Nifty Fifty if people have heard that but but 14:42we couldn't find stuff that made sense for him to invest and so you know he he 14:51returned the capital write the same thing happened in in in in the tech 14:56bubble I mean there was all sorts of articles about how buffeted lost his way

15:00right old fogey is immuno knew too much there was no longer true it's a new era 15:06you know all this stuff and until folks that that nothing to change the market 15:15was overvalued and so for the second time 15:18you know he issued a warning so I i think this is really important to 15:25investors is to really you know figure out what you're all about their spin 15:33some really people that I admire so much come here to speak to you that have very 15:41different approaches and something that I struggle with quite a bit for a few 15:47months actually was thinking about okay we have young Buffett okay in the early 15:52stages he's a lot like Tobias Carlisle was right is pure Graham he's looking 15:57for statistical you know cigar bots that are super cheap out of favor by the end 16:05he's a lot like Tom gayner right where he's got you know the majority of his 16:11funds in american express right they bought Walt Disney so we went from you 16:19know buying Dempster mill which is a windmill implements company on the verge 16:23of bankruptcy to you know high quality businesses that were compounding and 16:30we're compounders in general right and so the question is you know what what 16:34should you do so i was trying to think okay what kind of advice should i be 16:38giving if somebody asked me what what's right and I you know I Tobias got great 16:43statistics you know he's he's got all this map that shows you know his way is 16:49better right but then Tom gainers got you know this great stat on gram which 16:54is that yeah you bought a lot of cigar butts but guess what he made more money 16:57and geico then he made in all those other investments combined so if you 17:01find one great compounder and you make 19 other mistakes you know you're still 17:07bound to do wonderfully well because of the way that compound interest works so 17:12the answer that I came to was that unfortunately it depends what what 17:19should you do it depends on you right 17:22play your game figure out what your circle of confidences you know what what 17:27areas are you interested in and pack 17:29passionate about where you act to be able to have an understanding of of what 17:34a business is worth right and then what is your sort of psychological 17:42disposition to being on this treadmill of cigar butts because you know they 17:50they are a sort of fleeting in their value and you have to be on on constant 17:56search for them which is very different than you know what what Buffett does now 18:03or or or mr. Gaynor does at markel witches you know my great businesses and 18:08sort of sit on your butt right so the other thing i will say before I i close 18:16on this on this topic is that very early in the partnership 1959 1960 Buffett put 18:28thirty-five percent of the funds in a company called Sanborn Mac company which 18:36was a a mapping business used in the insurance field and the market cap at 18:47the time was right around it stated book equity of four and a half million 18:52dollars 18:53ok so the inflation factor being seven or eight you can be thinking you know 18:57you know 35 million dollar market cap now that is a minuscule thing right so 19:05the idea of a following buff it because he bought you know phillips 66 right 19:15that's that might be great but if you're at a position where you can sort of put 19:21the Geiger counter over some of these micro caps you know you should because 19:27you know there's a lot of fertile ground where institutions can't go so you know 19:34just I would just say you know go anywhere do anything don't don't try and 19:40copy anybody you can 19:42you can look to them to see what you like about what they're doing what 19:46resonates with you but like I spire said when he was here you know don't try to 19:53be Warren Buffett try to be the best guy spire try to be the best Jeremy Miller 19:57because you know that's really the only way that you're going to be able to make

20:03it through the tough times when your strategy is is a you know up inevitably 20:10you're gonna come through times where it gets hard so I to invert the inversion 20:18you know you really need to think long term and get yourself away from making 20:22predictions especially short-term predictions you know forget the market 20:28carefully assembled a fact supply sound reasoning come up with your own value 20:33your own view of what something is worth in and be confident in it before you do 20:37anything because if you're not confident in your view you're going to get shaken 20:41out of your position and then third is you know figure out what kind of 20:46investor you are what what what suits you from a temperament perspective and 20:53and play that game don't don't don't play someone else's game so with that I 21:01thought I'd I'd stop and see if there's any questions 21:07yeah so the question is sort of the continuum by which buffett was active 21:13and you know engage with his company's during the partnership reverse today the 21:20fair and and so what I would what I would say 21:23interestingly enough is so you know Buffett came out of Colombia where you 21:29study with graham right and then he begged gram for a couple years for a job 21:34at Graham Newman when he ended up getting one right and and and at Graham 21:40Newman it was very much the way that you described initially the sort of 21:44hands-off approach because Graham had this view that you should be able to 21:47just read the intelligent investor and security analysis 21:51and you know make money and it would be kind of i'm trying to prove that to 21:55people so don't go talk to you know management teams or you know get 22:00one-on-one access to these things and and so forth but then you know as soon 22:06as Buffett started the partnership you know he he moved away from that and what 22:15he did was he had three categories of investing right one was called the 22:19generals these were generally undervalued securities these ultra cheap 22:23cigar bar type things right and then he had workouts which basically just risk 22:29arbitrage you know one company by the other so you bet that the transaction 22:32closes and then the third category was actually born out of the first so the 22:37generals because so for instance i mentioned sanborn maps for a 22:41half-million-dollar market cap right so over time he comes to acquire you know 22:48twenty percent right get together with some other friends gets 40-percent 22:53forces his way onto the board now Sam or map was unique because it had it was at 22:58that Richard had all these securities on its portfolio in its portfolio that it 23:01didn't need it was just making so much money for so long that they bought 23:04stocks bonds the board was comprised of you know people from the insurance 23:09industry that didn't own any shares in the company that in care so if you read 23:14snowball be another story and it is in that you know if he forces his way onto 23:20the board threatens a proxy right doesn't exchange for you know his shares 23:27and in in sanborn maps for the securities portfolio it makes a very 23:30nice return avoid some taxes so back even back then you know he was very 23:37willing to do what it takes to unlock the value if you had to so I kind of 23:45think of that as a him as an activist you know later on he would he would buy 23:53full you know controlling positions and in companies so maybe just one last 24:00point on that I think you might find interesting is that the you know Buffett 24:03seamlessly move 24:04between the world of business and investing right so a portfolio manager 24:08takes a a pile of capital people give them money right that portfolio manager 24:13then selects the best stocks that they can find to earn the highest return 24:17possible 24:18well you know Buffett thinks the same way about a CEO write a CEO has a pile 24:23of capitalists in the form of the assets of the company the working capital of 24:27the company etc you know the cash and says how are we going to deploy these 24:33assets their highest and best use so an alternate approach that maybe something 24:40that your time getting our word proposes just started businesses that are good 24:45quality and buffered has this knack of making everything look very easy but 24:51actually isn't and so maybe instead of doing work buffered in his early yours 24:55just starting businesses and whenever you have a brexit used by those 24:59businesses to hang onto them and obviously you're not going to make

25:01thirty percent annualized returns but for most people you know if you do it 25:06over 30 years I don't need to make thirty percent analyzed to do okay what 25:10do you think of that approach fabulous i think that's a great approach i mean if 25:14if you can identify the field in which you that if you can identify a field of 25:19securities that you think you understand and can value right then you can also 25:23identify the price at which they will offer you the compound of rate of return 25:28that you're after right and that you think maybe you're entitled to so now 25:32what I mean by that is if interest rates are ten percent you know the demand rate 25:37of return that you're going to expect from the from the investment is going to 25:40be higher than what if there are two percent right but if you have a field of 25:45say twenty five businesses that have public equities associated with them 25:49right you can value those businesses and then determine the price at which 25:55they're going to offer you the rate of return that that that you think you need 26:00to to to make the investment i think but always use 15 you know I think now the 26:07size of his capitals drop down closer to 10 but you know if you're not operating 26:13with billions and maybe 15 is the right number 26:16but whatever that is I think that's a that's a that's a great strategy 26:20especially the 22 decided question regarding what you're saying vs I guess 26:27what you call the efficient market theory which is really no individual can 26:32find can actually get more information from the system you know legally than 26:36anybody else and it's all built in $YEAR and in particular people do talk about 26:42how almost nobody can do better than the than the indexes and in of course p 26:49there's to counter examples which is Peter Lynch of Magellan and I warren 26:54buffett of course and and then people say well Warren Buffett he's you can't 26:58really count him because he actually goes and like you said gets on the 27:02boards and helps manage the company so he he personally takes up a role in 27:07making the company successful which obviously most of us can do and then 27:11Peter Peter Lynch he had a very strong run but then once he got out of Magellan 27:16and start predicting stocks kind of his private his private portfolio actually 27:20didn't beat the market so so even in I say all of us here we work at Google and 27:26yet even we and so if we think we probably not something about the 27:29internet business and whatnot and even i think most of us are pretty astounded by 27:33the way Google is performed and continues to perform in and even I'm 27:37here for many years I have no idea what's going to happen in the internet 27:42business and I you know sales and advertising market and so forth so i'm 27:47not sure how I would even apply the things that you're saying personally 27:51even being in the business that I'm in short so let me try to unpack that a 27:57little bit so you know buffets best a bottle to efficient market theory is is 28:06a speech that he gave called the super investors of Grandma novel where he 28:10played out a scenario of national coin flipping contest where everybody flipped 28:16the coin and you know the iterations went daily until there were you know 20 28:21or so left and said that wouldn't be wouldn't be awful weird if if all 20 you 28:27know came from the same 28:28town right and and then he outlined the results of what he called the super 28:34investors of Grandma dodgeville which were basically a collection of people 28:38that studied under gram or were heavily influenced by you know his teachings i 28:46will say that during the partnership years there was no index investing right 28:53that hadn't been invented yet but even then buff it was making the case that if 29:00you can't outperform the market the index that the the the general results 29:08of the dow jones which is what was you know the primary want to Sesame today 29:13then you know you she should shouldn't be investing actively right you it is 29:21the onus of of the active investor to outperform and those who can't 29:25outperform are are are doing a disservice to their investors you know 29:34by being by being active right in terms of how you personally can go about 29:43taking on a value approach would be to do one exactly what you started with 29:51which is reject things that you don't think that you can really have a strong

30:00view on in terms of how the future is going to unfold you know it may be very 30:05different then perhaps you know buying it a dry cleaner that has an advantage 30:14position next to the train station you know in in the town that in the 30:19community town and in whatever XYZ America right so looking at the stocks 30:28as businesses i think is is the best way to do it when you when you have a strong 30:33view of what those businesses are worth and you're presented with prices in the 30:38market that are different than that 30:40but that's the essence of it and and what those will be will be dependent on 30:46you know your own circle of competence with what you know and and are capable 30:51of value and structures is a lot when you start to think about it we were 30:56talking a little looser you were alluding to it I think before you began 31:00the talk and I wasn't for the benefit of the audience here you know in doing such 31:05a deep study of his early years what about things that stood out to you in 31:11terms of you know things that have impacted you at a personal level not 31:16just an interesting but maybe you know in any aspect and and if that question 31:21were put to you what would stand out to you the the way that buffett what about 31:27structuring the partnership communicating to his investors was sort 31:36of high-class from the very beginning you know there's a lot of integrity and 31:42it really shines through the letters that that would be one thing but from a 31:46practical perspective in terms of what what really changed the way that I think 31:53about investing as as a participant would be this idea of of business as a 32:01pup is a pile of capital right so look to see where the assets are right what's 32:08the sort of return that's being generated on those assets are they 32:13optimized right look at the businesses if you own the whole thing right even 32:18though when you buy the security you buy your proportional share you know what is 32:22the whole thing worth right you got yahoo finance to look at a company 32:27don't look at the share price right look at the market cap right what's the whole 32:31business worth right and then you know if I buy my fraction of the business you 32:39know my getting it a discount or am I overpaying so you know the fungibility 32:46the capital that the the idea that you know business 32:52and investing is sort of very much that the the difference between the two is is 33:00sort of false in a way and then I guess the other thing would be to think 33:05long-term 33:07ok so compound interest requires patience 33:10it doesn't really kick in until Slyke 67 years depending on the rate right but 33:17once it once it goes it's the most powerful force there is that's why 33:22Buffett used to joke that is haircuts are costing them 200 grand apiece right 33:27because if he had forgone the haircut and put the money in the fund you know 33:32you said 200 granted when I do the math I came to like two million but the other 33:36points the same i've found it very hard to reconcile of to a buffered scenes and 33:42I think you have 21 today which is if I were managing 10 million dollars so you 33:47know I could I think I could make fifty percent of nevermind i think i can get 33:51into you right yeah and then I think after he started butcher happy as a 33:56public company he's kept on emphasizing it's far better to buy a wonderful 34:01business at a fair place and a fair business at a wonderful place right and 34:05he goes on to say there's never just one cockroach in the kitchen and but buying 34:10books at xn minus was one of the worst mistakes he's ever made in his life so I 34:15found these hard to reconcile i'm sure you've thought about this i like your 34:19thoughts on me 34:20yeah well you know Charlie Munger the vice-chair of Berkshire was asked a 34:26similar question and his answer was it turned out we could buy great businesses 34:32and you know it only cost us a couple points of compounding year and and what 34:38a better life right so you know I think about this Sanborn situation all the 34:47time because it was such a small company right i mean you could almost envision a 34:54group of of individuals right getting a controlling stake in the company that

35:00had a market cap of 5 million 35:0210 million dollars i mean that could happen today 35:06right that's what he was doing right so you know I think if you saying okay if I 35:11had a couple million bucks you know I could find these companies maybe they 35:15have a five-million-dollar market cat right maybe they just need to be shut 35:19down or maybe they need to be sold or moving you know but you could you could 35:22engineer these type of of returns 35:25I think that's what he means but for for the lifestyle that he wanted to live 35:33right if you want to have a diary with your weekly schedule that you know is 35:38blank except for like thursday at two haircut right compounders is a really a 35:45good way to do it you know he made a much better return a company called 35:48Dempster mill which he liquidated effectively right and then be 35:54incorporated to avoid tax and he made a great return on that but you know the 36:00town of Beatrice Nebraska had headlines about Buffett the liquidator you know 36:05all the time and that's not easy you know any panacea in terms of how you 36:10want to live your life and can be seen so once he was already rich i think he 36:16sort of latched onto this idea even though wasn't maybe the the optimal from 36:23a return perspective 36:24oh I Christ saw paper and a quarter up at the office which is attributed a 36:32little part of the above it is successful return to his laboratory in 36:37the portfolio mainly through a coincidence float 36:41I wonder do not like a how much revolutionary in its early portfolio 36:46yeah so are the the leverage that he used was only in the workouts so within 36:54the murder ARB business right company anybody's going to be you know if it 36:59goes through there's this spread 37:01usually you know it's a couple percentage points but you know that the 37:05window is short so you know if you annualize that it gets to like you know 37:10six or seven but then if you put you know three turns of leverage on it 37:15and you're looking at 18 or whatever something along those lines so you know 37:19when when he was doing those types of things and had high degree of certainty 37:24that they would actually close and you know he didn't sort of sporadically a 37:29lot of a lot of you know these murder our shops to a ton of these deals but he 37:35did you know a few years me like that is really confident and you know he would 37:39leverage those but but the rest of the portfolio's was on leopard you spend a 37:45lot of time are alluded to buffett scale sort of as a manager whether it's 37:49through special situations sort of like that workouts and a lot of you can gain 37:53outsized returns from that but i was wondering how you respond to and rain 37:57for seen some of the other people AQR wrote a paper a few years ago trying 38:02discussing them sort of where does a buffered performance come from where 38:06that white weather like why he had a 0.76 alpha why exactly was able to gain 38:11such a high returns at home at a relatively low volatility and so they 38:16had done the analysis and so they looked one that is skills like a stock 38:20selection and to his skill as a manager in these type of situations and he 38:25concluded that it was due to it was actually the the former his stock 38:29selection ability whether it was being able to pick low beta stocks of 38:33companies with uh just who had high quality is very consistent growth hype a 38:38payout ratios rather than his ability as a manager to manage like private 38:42companies to navigate corporate restructuring and such and maybe even 38:46believe they send a lot they also attributed partly choose a high leverage 38:50as a leverage of 1.6 21 and so this is calculated leverage as own assets minus 38:55excess cash / equity rather than how you did it with I think the user your 38:59matching like three turns right and that's using it as a multiple and so are 39:03you 39:03this is so basically that the central point is that they did a statistical 39:06analysis and able to account for like his highland 39:09alpha due to his ability as a stock selection rather than his ability to 39:14actually have somebody like that workout summer job or any of these other yeah I 39:19guess marks yeah that's no okay yeah great great question and you know just 39:24to be clear when we talk about leverage we're talking about it on the same basis 39:28right so the amount of assets that it's being controlled by a given amount of 39:33equity right so we've got a six percent return and we leveraged three times that 39:39means we're controlling three times as much assets with a given amount of 39:42equity right and that's what gives you your you're eighteen percent and you 39:48know that there's there wasn't a lot of risk ARB in the Berkshire years there 39:53are some you know he wrote about it and in the seventies but you're the main 39:59thrust of your point is absolutely accurate right i mean the qualities of

40:03the businesses that he has been involved then have been rather consistent over 40:10time you know its financials it's it's branded consumer companies and others 40:16where he feels like he has a view on what the business is likely to earn ten 40:23years from now with not a lot of will or i should say we with what he thinks is a 40:29high degree of certainty that he can know what the business is gonna look 40:33like in the future and and so those kind of things have factors associated with 40:38them so whether its volatility or you know the the actual underlying 40:45volatility of the business itself etc and then the leverage factors is a huge 40:52piece right because not only that he have leverage from the float of the 40:59insurance company which by the way was was purchased for Berkshire where well 41:04it was a portfolio holding up the partnership but also through the 41:09leverage of the deferred tax liability associated with the unrealized capital 41:15gains on the securities portfolio so you know we can talk about you know profit 41:23and avoiding leverage but really what he's talking about is leverage that has 41:29a due date or leverage that has a coupon associated with a principal payment so 41:34an interest payment associated with it so you know float when under written 41:41properly tends to come for perjured at a near free costs and of course the the 41:49first tax liabilities don't bear interest either so I think you're right 41:53but I would also say that you know i think it's it's easy not easy but you 42:00know it you can do the statistical analysis and and run the regressions and 42:05see what the factors were that led to the success that's a there's a there's a 42:11reason why you know there's one more buff it right so I don't know if I would 42:18necessarily think that we could just do a quantum model and replicate Buffett if 42:23we started today with the same factors as well so it's a part of the argument 42:28is it's not like that the private companies are sold sorry sorry let me 42:32address that ok so i agree with you there as well and and I don't think 42:36Buffett want to ever get active right nor did he think it was his skillset to 42:41get active I don't think today he wants to be active you know that managers 42:46don't call you know into Buffett once a month to give the numbers and say you 42:51know here's what i'm doing what do you think about this is ok well you should 42:55get your working capital down or you got too many fixed assets or whatever he 42:58says you know giving great managers and then let them run their business right 43:03and and that's sort of his MO now right so he's not really claiming to be you 43:09know a great cast iron forger so he's gonna buy precision castparts you know 43:16the most recent theory that 40 billion dollars are so you know it's not that he 43:21bought the manager and the company so I think he has a lot more to say about how 43:27the capital gets allocated that 43:29businesses run and that's really where he had the value you look from the 43:33sixties to the late nineties i mean majority of the returns came from a 43:39handful of business american express in the sixties and then sees candies 43:44coca-cola american express again and primarily here 43:51the reason being that we are very concentrated back American Express was 43:56some thirty forty percent and coke was I think or twenty percent of the capital 44:02and and when and geico also was a pretty significant but so when he made these 44:08investments they were out of favour and here the differentiated view and the 44:14differentiated you came from 44:16he doing is cutting back on these companies that gave him these kind of 44:21differentiated point of view about the security i like the best and American 44:26Express event around and did all the scattered about you 44:28so my point being is from those lessons seems like concentration scuttlebutt if 44:36I am going to be a stock picker are important 44:39what are lessons from there that we can do today 44:42apply if I'm in active investing picking stocks and I you know if concentrated is 44:47the vehicle the counter just to complete the sentences the counter being lots of 44:53hedge funds start that they had a differentiated point of view and the 44:56ball in valiant and it was a concentrated but it could always go the 45:00other way and killed decades of confounding yeah absolutely love that 45:06question right so sequoia funds right taking down effectively reputation was 45:11dismantled by value was created because buffets partnership closed right the 45:16investors who wanted to maintain their exposure the equity market even though 45:20buff it was recommending that they didn't do that he gave them the option 45:24bill ron was there with started sequoia for the partnership right so that people 45:32who wanted to stand could write basically following this same strategy 45:38which is sort of like a 45:39it's like an Icarus strategy right i mean you're flying awful close to the 45:46Sun it improves the returns you for your questions for her friend it very well 45:50you know part of the reason for the success was he was concentrated in the 45:56right stuff right 45:59part of the reason for you know the downfall of the sequoia funds was that

46:04they were concentrated in the wrong stuff right so you know it works really 46:11well as long as you you know you don't make the mistake I guess is the point so 46:15the degree to which you have the confidence in what you're doing should 46:21determine the degree of concentration that you're willing to accept because if 46:26it goes wrong it's going to go horribly wrong if you're concentrated and it's it 46:30you know it it's recoverable Jeremy even when I was asking you you know leading 46:36to the same issue earlier you mentioned a brilliant of Ben Graham court about 46:40Warren Buffett oh right yeah so so Graham was asked about what Buffett had 46:51become in terms of his quality compound or strategy and he said I can understand 46:58why you're doing it but it's harder right so i think that's for everybody to 47:06decide on their own whether you know they find it to be in their nature to be 47:11more like buffett of 25 26 27 years older or more like you know muffin at 47:20age 40 or age 84 like he is today 47:23thank you so much once again for being with us here today this was


0:01我们有一个非常特殊的客人在我们这里今天请和我一起欢迎 0:05杰里米米勒谢谢抱歉，但它是它真的是一个真正的荣幸来到这里， 0:17并谈谈这本书，在我的经验中，从学习 0:25研究的这些信件，并和编译本书的过程中，你知道我不是 0:33一个专业作家我认为自己更作为一种项目经理为 0:39我所看到的东西，正在广受社会各界的价值被忽视 0:47在大的平均每个人在公众了解巴菲特的时间 0:53伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司如何成功，一直让你知道，去年是 0:57他提升50周年之际成为该公司董事长作用 1:03因此，我们有他从50个字母。但是你知道也有一段时间 1:09 $ MONTH 1956年至1970年间，他被运行在很大程度上由合作伙伴关系 1:16那他其实知道的人最初的投资者家庭成员 1:20和室友和人民奥马哈，他知道人们说，他是非常接近 1:26与他在写这些信给他们，让你可以想像试图传达 1:32哲学在如何思考市场覆盖这方面你的感觉 1:41知道14年期限33左右的信件相比50那我们都知 1:49和喜爱并研究了很清楚的观察，你知道有一个我只是觉得 1:53有被被忽视你知道未来的智慧这个大大片 2:00从巴菲特的时候，他说他的家人和他 2:06运行小额金钱所以最初的伙伴关系开始 2:13其他七人一十万美元的钱 2:19一百块钱，他扔在他自己的，你知道他他也教了 2:28类的时间，所以我喜欢这张幻灯片，因为这类型的显示他作为 2:33老师这其中他真的，他真的是如此，这是一个非常有成效 2:38时间沃伦·巴菲特，你有29％的复合年增长率 2:44收益比14年期利率，他从未有过的同比下降，市场有 2:51一些他从来没有跑输大市，你知道他的赫赫永远跑输大市 2:59右这只是它真的很令人印象深刻，有报价1999 3:07这显然​​是你知道那种对纳斯达克在那里高峰 3:11他说，如果我今天又跑小儿子我想我可以做一个 3:17 50％的复合年度回报他去尽可能地说，他保证 3:23他能做到这一点，所以你知道有很多是在哪些方面探讨了在这里 3:30你可以做，当你真正拥有一个去任何地方做，什么战略， 3:34这是非常不同的，你知道，他发现自己在今天的位置 3:39在那里，你知道他是那种背负着多思路资本 3:44这就是他的思想远远超过了他的资本权利，使我有时间 3:52组织了，你知道我是从扯下查理的方式这次谈话 3:58芒格谁从强尼·卡森撕开它关闭，你知道谁谁可能撕开 4:05从卡尔·雅各比在著名的代数二过一个观点，如果你 4:12真正要解决问题的一个很好的方式去了解它是反转 4:16问题的权利向后想想，这样我放在一起，你知道谈话 4:23如果你真的声音 4:25方式你知道避免投资的成功，然后的想法是，如果你 4:30可能只是不能做这三样东西，我会解开他们为你 4:36你知道你要去一个很长的路，寻找成功，让我们开始 4:43开始 4:44所以第一个是关于你知道我们住在一个24小时的新闻周期预测 4:50文化里的人声称自己是专家或更 4:56非常高兴获得在电视上反复按住利率前景 5:02油价 5:03这是怎么回事你知道一堵墙的所有类型的支持早餐它发生 5:11街头文化，从转在人们的投资组合的好处，你知道 5:18巴菲特的你知道的合作伙伴第一次会议之前，甚至允许他们 5:26以写检查 5:28你知道他们说的很明确，我不是在做业务 5:32一般股市的预测，如果你认为你的业务波动 5:36我能做到这一点，或者它甚至需要你知道的伙伴关系 5:42不是你，我认为这个想法 5:46那么首先让这样一个伟大的方式把你的净值到您的经纪人 5:52目前的收入是你知道交易的每一个奇思妙想，你有你认为你 5:59知道好吧，我有我的，你知道II期，你要知道欧洲呃不好意思英国

6:07是要去要留权，所以我打算卖掉这跟市场结合 6:13一个可怕的想法权利，以及其原因是因为你知道这是它 6:19这个世界充满了不确定性激进的和这里面的很多东西，你 6:23无法预测，所以我想巴菲特的显着因素之一 6:28在他的职业生涯一个非常早期的一点是，他是很舒服的说 6:33你知道我有 6:35它的确定也没办法 6:38右，他会说，到今天为止，当谈到利率等是 6:43你不知道它是不是能够预测的一切这是关于有 6:50信任你实际上要保护和真正的 6:56过去是最好的来源，你知道做什么的去猜测 7:02发生在你想想这样的未来，是长期在路上 7:07这是是是是第一位的摧毁第二真正伟大的方式，你的 7:19净资产是利用市场的信息来源，以你 7:26认为企业是值得所以是的，你知道，一般的投资者 7:33在股市的经验是正确的比较差我想大家都知道， 7:38有一种倾向，你知道买高卖低，和它的排序 7:45自然权利我想你知道斯坦福得到了他们的第一次 7:48足球比赛即将到来在下周五权利，所以如果你去你的校园 7:53知道你要找到自己的方式去球场做的是最好的办法 7:57那种随波逐流的，这不是在自然的事情，但在市场上 8:04你知道什么时候，当你在大家同意是你知道这可能是一个 8:10真正危险的事的权利，所以我会说，市场 8:18确定这样你的任性，我们备份了一点，所以，如果你投资于股权证券买 8:26股权我会鼓励你，如果你买一个想到的 8:34分成比例的公司权利的资产，你知道你应该 8:39价值，企业权利，并且希望你知道你这样做是在 8:46你知道一些，这样就可以使一个受过教育领域 8:50猜测至于什么业务价值，所以如果你和我聚在一起，和 8:56买了一台干洗业务的权利，并在有一天，有人走了进来，说我会 9:04给你五块钱对这个地方的权利，你告诉他们散步，但它 9:12肯定不会吓坏你的权利，你的干洗店是唯一值得 9:16权五块钱一样的东西是关于股市真正的权利，你不能 9:23让从资产AA市场报价轮，当它在你的，你可以利用 9:30赞成一个责任 9:32那将你知道带你离开了市场，并让归结起来有两条 9:40什么，我会觉得是正北权，所以如果你不能用一个概念 9:47市场告诉你什么东西是值得你只能使用以市场为 9:52在你有进行交易的选择权，那么你需要将价格 9:59能够珍惜自己的商业权利，在这里你有这个美好的 10:02报价，基本上说，你知道是正确的是不是在人群中被 10:09是权利不是你知道有受人尊敬的人同意你的看法 10:14作为右边是关于把你的事实一起右侧，然后他们的推理 10:20通过正确的在一个健全的合乎逻辑的方式，如果你这样做了持续 10:26正确的时间 10:29这是发生了什么事情给你的成功，所以我只是想再次突破22，其中它 10:36你知道所有这些人，他们看电视你知道噢，我的上帝 10:40世界要来，我对我们意味着被砍伐到上创建的文件 10:46其中华尔街写报告关于你知道砖的影响它 10:50对 10:51从字面上我不能想象我的意思是，他们都与结束同样的事情哪 10:54基本上我认为这会是坏，但我真的不知道正确的是 10:59结论所以你知道乡亲

11:03那得害怕，因为那和我认为他们让你知道这一切变得 11:10而由呃加剧你知道这就是它的媒体描绘的方式， 11:17你知道最终44的价值投资者是要找到伟大的公司 11:22利用复利的力量，你知道的保真度有这个 11:25伟大的故事，我只是喜欢表现最好的保真度计数 11:29根据大的研究，他们确实是谁忘了那个人的 11:35他们有一个帐户的权利，所以你知道交易是不是你的朋友听 11:41市场是不是你的朋友，你知道试图找出你的想法我一个 11:49企业是值得右侧，然后担心你其内在价值的看法 11:55和它是如何随时间变化，并把营销方面的权利再多一次 12:00还有一点我会在这一点，我真的从自助餐享受 12:05评论是，你知道风险是经常一个量化的概念来一个 12:14很多人都和自助餐不是很不同于相差很 12:17开始右风险是不是beta公测权公测的金额由股票 12:24波浪线就在时间权在一定期限内抛光器，这不是风险 12:32风险是不知道自己在做什么的权利，所以也许你打错事实 12:39也许你认为他们通过的方式，是不健全的内部可能 12:47的东西，你没有考虑进了画面，你的假设是 12:53是非犯错的风险不知道你不知道什么是风险 13:01当你知道你的鞋子巴菲特是想花体并不重要 13:10关于公司 13:12他们离婚股价愿意来为他们加油去低，因为你 13:21真的不关心你没有卖，你就乐意多买多 13:24你知道，但发现自己在这些位置上，他会买一点点 13:30位和股价将大大下降，他的内在价值估计再改变，因此 13:35我们买的多一点，这将大大下降，这将多年权这样做 13:41而他并不需要市场来告诉我是正确的，这是他自己 13:46推理使他得出这个结论 13:50我认为第三件事是失败的一个很好的办法就是打别人 13:56其他的比赛，你知道你有你的将是时间的价值投资者，其中 14:02觉得他们是与市场同步，并且它真的很难，我认为到 14:09坚持你的理念，你的原则，当你在那种很 14:16一个牛市的投机泡沫权，所以我们看到这个在年底 14:23这是合作的时代当我们接近1970年你在什么 14:28他们所谓的市场去去阶段，它是砾岩时代 14:34而且这只是早于漂亮50，如果人都听说，但却 14:42我们找不到的东西，是合情合理的他投资，所以你知道他，他 14:51返回首都写同样的事情发生在在高科技 14:56泡我的意思是有如何的冲击迷了路的各种文章 15:00正确的老顽固是免疫知道得太多了不再有真正的这是一个新的时代 15:06你知道这一切的东西，直到乡亲，没有什么改变市场 15:15被高估，因此第二次 15:18你知道他发出警告，所以我我觉得这是非常重要的 15:25投资者是，你要知道弄清楚你是什么都对他们的旋 15:33我很佩服这么多来这里还真有些人对你说话有很 15:41不同的方法和我有相当多的挣扎了几事 15:47其实几个月还想着没关系，我们有年轻的巴菲特在早期好吗 15:52阶段他是一个很像托比亚斯卡莱尔是正确的是纯粹的格雷厄姆，他在寻找 15:57统计你知道雪茄机器人，通过年底的超低价失宠

16:05他是一个很像汤姆gayner身在何方他有你知道他的大部分 16:11在他们买了迪斯尼美国运通权的资金，所以我们从你去 16:19知道买登普斯特磨这是一个风车实现公司濒临 16:23破产你知道高质量的商家认为是复利和 16:30我们在一般权利复合机和所以，问题是你知道什么是什么 16:34你应该这样做，我试图想好吧，我应该是什么样的忠告 16:38给人如果有人问我，什么是正确的，我知道我托比亚斯得到了很大的 16:43统计你知道他是他有这一切的地图，显示你知道他的方法是 16:49更好的权利，但随后汤姆涨幅居前把你知道克这个伟大统计哪些 16:54是，是的，你买了很多雪茄的烟头，但猜测他做了更多的钱 16:57和GEICO后来他在所有其他投资组合，所以如果让你 17:01找到一个伟大的混配和你做其他的19错误，你知道你还在 17:07势必会做，因为这样奇妙清楚，复利工程，以便 17:12我来到答案是，不幸的是它取决于什么什么 17:19你应该做它取决于你的权利 17:22玩你的游戏人物了，你知道你的知心圈什么什么 17:27领域是你感兴趣的，包 17:29热衷于在那里你采取行动，能够有一个了解什么 17:34一个企业是值得权利，那么什么是你的心理排序 17:42处置是在这个跑步机雪茄的烟头，因为你知道他们 17:50他们是一种在它们的价值稍纵即逝，你必须要对不断 17:56寻找他们，这是非常不同的比你知道的巴菲特现在做什么 18:03或或或先生。盖纳在做巫婆马克尔你知道我的大企业和 18:08那种坐在你的屁股权利，使其他的事情，我会说我之前我关闭 18:16在这个关于这个话题，在1959年的合作伙伴关系1960年巴菲特放很早 18:28在公司资金的35％的所谓桑伯恩苹果公司， 18:36在保险领域使用AA映射业务和市值在 18:47时间是正确周围指出四本书股权和半百万 18:52美元 18:53确定，所以通货膨胀因素是七，八，你可想你知道 18:57你知道3500万美元的市值现在是微不足道的东西吧等等 19:05随后的BUFF的想法，因为他买你知道菲利普斯66右 19:15这可能是伟大的，但如果你在一个位置，你可以排序的放 19:21在盖革计数器上有些微帽，你知道你应该因为 19:27你知道有很多的沃土，其中机构不能去，所以你知道 19:34只是我只想说你也知道去任何地方，做任何事情，没有不尝试 19:40复制任何人可以 19:42你可以看一下他们看你喜欢什么关于他​​们在做什么什么 19:46与你产生共鸣，但像他在这里我说的尖顶你知道不要尝试 19:53被巴菲特尽量做到最好的家伙塔尖尽量做到最好杰里米米勒 19:57因为你知道这是真的，你要能够做出的唯一途径 20:03它通过当你的策略是艰难的时刻，是你知道了不可避免 20:10你会来通过多次地方变得很辛苦，所以我要反反转 20:18你知道你真的需要考虑长期的和做让自己走 20:22预测尤其是你知道的短期预测忘记市场 20:28精心装配的事实供应音推理拿出你自己的价值 20:33你自己是什么东西的看法是在价值和有信心在里面你做之前， 20:37任何东西，因为如果你不相信在你看来，你会得到动摇 20:41您的位置，然后第三个是你知道弄清楚什么样的 20:46投资者你是什么什么什么，从一个角度的气质适合你 20:53和玩这种游戏没有不不玩别人的游戏，所以与我

21:01以为我会我会停下来，看看是否有任何问题 21:07是啊所以问题是排序巴菲特活跃的统一体 21:13你知道合伙扭转今天在与他的公司的参与 21:20公平，所以我会什么，我会说 21:23有趣的是，让你知道巴菲特出来哥伦比亚，你的 21:29格雷厄姆正确的学习，然后他恳求克为一对夫妇年工作 21:34在格雷厄姆 - 纽曼，当他最终得到一个正确的和和和格雷厄姆 21:40纽曼这是非常多，你所描述最初的排序方式 21:44放手的方法，因为格雷厄姆有这种看法，你应该能够 21:47刚看完明智的投资者和安全分析 21:51你知道赚钱，这将是一种我想要证明给 21:55这样的人你知道管理团队不要去谈话或你认识的获取 22:00单对单访问这些东西，等等，但是，你一旦知道 22:06巴菲特开始了合作伙伴关系，你知道他，他搬到从什么走 22:15他所做的是他有三类投资合适的人被称为 22:19这些将领普遍低估的证券这些超低价 22:23雪茄吧类型正确的事情，然后他的训练基本上只是风险 22:29套利你知道一家公司被其他让你打赌，交易 22:32关闭，然后第三类实际上出生出第一所以 22:37将军因为这么比如我提到桑伯恩地图一 22:41五十万美元的市值权等过段时间他来收购你知道 22:48百分之二十的权利与其他一些朋友聚会得到40％的 22:53迫使他的方式到该板萨姆或地图是独一无二的，因为它有它是在 22:58理查德对投资组合所有这些证券在其投资组合，它 23:01并不需要它只是做了这么多钱了这么久，他们买 23:04股票债券的董事会由你知道从保险人 23:09未持有任何公司的股份，在照顾，所以如果你阅读产业 23:14雪球是另一个故事，这是在你知道，如果他强迫他的方式到 23:20董事会威胁的代理权并没有换来你知道他的股份 23:27而在对证券组合桑伯恩地图这让人很 23:30不错的回报避免一些税收等回到即使当时你知道他很 23:37愿意做什么需要解锁值，如果你必须让我有种 23:45认为，作为一个他称为活动家你以后知道他，他会买 23:53满你知道控股地位，并在公司，所以也许只是一个最后 24:00点上，我认为你可能会发现有趣的是，你知道巴菲特 24:03无缝切换 24:04世界商业和投资的权利，使投资组合经理之间 24:08采用AA一堆资本的人给他们钱正确的投资组合经理 24:13然后选择最好的股票，他们可以找到赚取回报率最高 24:17可能 24:18那么你知道巴菲特认为一个CEO同样的方式写一个CEO有一堆 24:23在该公司的营运资金的资产形式资本家 24:27等你知道现金，并表示该公司如何我们要部署这些 24:33资产的最高和最佳使用，因此另一种方法，也许事情 24:40你的时间让我们的话提议刚开始是好的企业 24:45质量和缓冲有使一切看起来很容易的这一诀窍，但 24:51实际上是没有，因此可能而没有工作的缓冲出头的你 24:55刚刚起步的企业，只要你有一个brexit那些使用 24:59商家挂到他们，显然你不打算做 25:01百分之三十的年化回报率，但对于大多数人来说，你知道，如果你这样做 25:06 30多年来，我不需要做百分之三十分析做什么好 25:10你觉得这种做法的美妙，我认为这是一个很好的方法，我的意思是如果 25:14如果你能识别领域中，你，如果你能找出一个领域 25:19你认为你了解并能值对，那么你也可以证券 25:23在确定他们会为您提供回报率的化合物价格 25:28你是对的后，你想，也许您有权所以现在 25:32我的意思是，如果利率是百分之十，你知道需求率 25:37那你会从从投资是要期望回报 25:40会比如果有两成权较高，但如果你有一个字段 25:45说25企业有与它们相关的公共股权 25:49右边可以重视这些企业，然后确定价格在这 25:55他们会为您提供回报的那是你认为你所需要的速度

26:00向使投资我想，但总是用15你知道我现在想 26:07他的资本的大小下拉接近10，但你知道，如果你不工作 26:13几十亿，也许15是正确的号码 26:16但无论这是我认为这是一个这是一个这是一个伟大的战略 26:20尤其是22决定对你说的话VS我猜问题 26:27你所谓有效市场理论是真的没有人可以 26:32发现实际上可以得到法律上你比知道系统的更多信息 26:36任何人，这一切都建在$一年，尤其是人们谈论 26:42怎么几乎没有人可以比低于指标过程中磷的，而且在 26:49有反击的例子是麦哲伦和我沃伦彼得·林奇 26:54当然，巴菲特和，然后人们说好沃伦·巴菲特他是你不能 26:58真正指望他，因为他竟然去和像你说的得到的 27:02板和帮助管理该公司，所以他他亲自占用了一定的作用 27:07使得公司成功这显然大多数人都可以做，然后 27:11彼得·彼得·林奇，他有一个非常强势运行但一旦他得到了麦哲伦出 27:16并开始预测样的股票他的私人他的私人投资组合实际上 27:20没有战胜市场，所以即使是在我说我们大家在这里，我们在谷歌工作， 27:26然而，即使我们和所以如果我们想我们可能不是有关 27:29互联网业务和诸如此类的东西，甚至我想我们大多数人都被震惊漂亮 27:33谷歌执行和方式继续执行，甚至我 27:37这里很多年，我不知道发生了什么事情在互联网上发生 27:42业务，我知道你的销售和广告市场等等，所以我 27:47不知道我会怎么连应用您是说个人的事 27:51即使我在很短的企业是如此让我尝试解包一个 27:57有点让你知道最好的自助餐一瓶有效市场理论是 28:06一，他给奶奶叫小说的超级投资者讲话，他 28:10发挥出国家抛硬币大赛的情景，每个人都翻转 28:16硬币，你知道迭代去每天，直到有你知道20 28:21左右离开，并表示不会将不可怕怪异，如果当所有20你 28:27知道来自同一个来 28:28镇权，然后他概述了他所谓的超级结果 28:34奶奶奇维尔的投资者这基本上是人的集合 28:38 ，根据克研究或正在严重影响由你知道他的教诲我 28:46会说，在多年的合作伙伴关系有没有投资指数权 28:53这还没有被发明，但即使再擦亮它做的情况下，如果 29:00你不能跑赢市场指数的的成绩一般 29:08道琼斯是什么你知道今天主要想芝麻 29:13那么你知道你自己应该不应该投资积极的权利，你是 29:21的积极投资者的责任超越和那些谁不能 29:25跑赢大盘的是被对得住你知道他们的投资者 29:34由是在你个人怎么可以去积极的方面是正确的 29:43取了价值的方法是做一个你开始什么用 29:51这是拒绝的事情，你不要以为你真的可以有一个强大的 30:00查看在未来将如何展开来讲，你知道它可能会很 30:05不同的那么也许你知道买它有一个优势干洗店 30:14位置，旁边是你在城里知道火车站，在 30:19社区和镇以任何XYZ美国的地方，以便在看股票 30:28作为企业，我认为是在这样做时，你当你有一个强大的最好方式 30:33鉴于这些是什么企业的价值以及您提出的价格在 30:38市场已超过所不同 30:40但是这是它的本质，以及这些将是将取决于 30:46你知道自己的能力范围与你知道什么，并能 30:51价值和结构是很多当你开始想想我们 30:56谈论你暗示了一点宽松，我认为你开始之前

31:00谈话我是不是这里的观众你做这样知道的好处 31:05他早年深入研究的事情，在站出来给你什么 31:11你而言知道，已经影响你在个人层面上的东西不 31:16只是一个有趣的，但也许你在任何方面知道，如果这个问题 31:21被投入你什么会站出来给你的方式，巴菲特怎么样 31:27构建合作沟通，他的投资是有点儿 31:36从你知道一开始就高档有很多完整， 31:42它真正的亮点通过字母，这将是一件事，但是从 31:46在什么条件实用的角度看，真正改变了我的思维方式 31:53关于投资作为一个参与者将这种想法的业务中 32:01小狗是资本一堆权利，使期待看到资产是对的什么是 32:08在这样的回报率是正的对这些资产所产生的是他们 32:13在企业优化右看看，如果你拥有了整个事情的权利，即使 32:18不过，当你购买的安全，你买你的分成比例，你知道什么是 32:22整个事情值得你的权利得到了雅虎财经要看公司 32:27不看股价右看市值权什么是全 32:31商业价值右侧，然后你知道，如果我买我的业务的一部分，你 32:39知道我得到它的折扣还是我花冤枉钱，所以你知道的互换性 32:46的想法，你知道的商业资本 32:52和投资是种非常多了两者之间的区别是是 33:00排序的方式，然后假我想其他的事情将是认为 33:05长期 33:07确定这样复利需要耐心 33:10它并没有真正踢，直到斯莱克67年取决于利率的权利，但 33:17一旦它一旦进入它是最强大的力量有这就是为什么 33:22巴菲特常开玩笑说是理发的花费他们200隆重每人权 33:27因为如果他而放弃了理发，并把钱放在你知道基金 33:32你说的200批，当我做数学题，我都挺喜欢2000000但其他 33:36指向同一我发现它非常难以调和的一个缓冲的场景和 33:42我觉得你有21这是今天如果我是管理1000万美金，所以你 33:47我知道我能想到我可以做的不要介意百分之五十，我认为我可以得到 33:51为你的权利啊，然后我想后，他开始快乐的屠夫作为 33:56上市公司他不断强调它远远不如买一个美妙 34:01在企业在一个奇妙的地方权利的公平的地方和一个公平的营商和 34:05他接着说从未有在厨房，但买了一只蟑螂 34:10在书籍减XN是他曾经在他的生活做出的最严重的错误之一，所以我 34:15发现这些难以调和我敢肯定，你想过这个我喜欢你 34:19对我的想法 34:20是啊，你也知道查理·芒格伯克希尔的副主席被问得 34:26类似的问题，他的回答是事实证明，我们可以购买大企业 34:32你知道它仅花费了我们复利一年什么的几个百分点 34:38一个更好的生活的权利，所以你知道，我认为这个桑伯恩情况一切 34:47时间，因为它是这样一个小公司，好吧，我的意思是，你几乎可以设想一个 34:54个人的权利获得该公司的控股权组 35:00有500万的市值 35:02 10万块钱我的意思是，今天可能发生 35:06右那是他在做什么正确的，所以你知道我想如果你，如果我说没关系 35:11有了你知道，我也许可以找到这些公司几百万美元，他们 35:15有一个5亿美元的市场，合适的猫，也许他们只需要被关闭 35:19下或者需要将它们卖掉或移动你知道，但你可以你可以 35:22这些工程师类型的收益 35:25我认为这是他的意思，但为他想居住的生活方式 35:33正确的，如果你想拥有带每周安排一本日记，你知道是 35:38除了像星期四空白两个理发权混配是真的 35:45好办法做到这一点，你知道他做了一个更好的回报称为公司 35:48登普斯特磨他的违约有效右侧，然后是 35:54成立避税，他上作出了巨大的回报，但你知道

36:00内布拉斯加州比阿特丽斯的镇有大约头条巴菲特你知道清盘 36:05所有的时间，这就是不容易的，你在你怎么知道的来讲什么灵丹妙药 36:10想住你的生活，可以看出所以一旦他已经富有，我认为他 36:16排序锁存到这种想法即使不是也许从最佳 36:23返回的角度 36:24哦，我看到了基督纸和一个季度增长在这归因一个办公室 36:32的上面少部分是成功的回归到他的实验室 36:37投资组合主要是通过巧合浮动 36:41我不知道不喜欢在其早期投资组合多少革命性 36:46是啊等等都是他使用的杠杆也只是在训练中如此 36:54谋杀ARB经营权的公司人将是你知道它 36:59经过有这种传播 37:01通常你知道这是一对夫妇个百分点，但你知道， 37:05所以你知道，如果你年率使其到达像你知道的窗口很短 37:10六七但如果你把你知道它的杠杆作用三圈 37:15而你看18或任何类似的规定，所以你知道 37:19当他在做这些类型的东西的时候，不得不高度的肯定 37:24他们将真正关闭，你知道他没有那种偶尔一 37:29大把大把的，你知道这些谋杀我们的店一吨的这些交易，但他的 37:35你知道几年我一样，是非常有信心，你知道他会 37:39利用这些但却其余投资组合的的是在豹你花了 37:45很多时候都提到巴菲特的规模排序作为一个管理者无论是 37:49通过特殊的情况有点像的锻炼和大量的你可以得到 37:53从超额回报，但我想知道你如何和雨回应 37:57对于看过一些其他人的AQR写了一篇论文，几年前尝试 38:02讨论这些排序哪里缓冲性能来自哪里 38:06那白色的天气怎么样，为什么他有一个0.76阿尔法到底为什么能够获得 38:11在国内如此高的回报率在一个相对低的挥发性，所以他们 38:16已经做了分析，所以他们看一个是技能，如股票 38:20选择和他在这些类型的情况下，经理和技巧，他 38:25得出的结论是，由于它实际上是前他的股票 38:29选择能力它是否能够选择的低贝塔的股票 38:33与恩公司只是谁了高品质是非常一致的增长炒作 38:38派息率，而不是他的能力作为一个管理器来管理私人一样 38:42公司导航企业转型等，甚至 38:46相信他们送了很多，他们也部分归因选择高杠杆 38:50作为1.6 21的杠杆，因此该计算杠杆为自己的资产减 38:55多余的现金/资产，而不是你如何与我做到了想用户的 38:59像三个匹配向右转，而且是用它为多，因此也 39:03您 39:03这是所以基本上，中央的一点是，他们做了一个统计 39:06分析能够解释像他高地 39:09阿尔法由于他作为一个选股能力，而不是他的能力 39:14居然有这样的人锻炼暑期工作或任何这些的，是我 39:19猜耶痕这不是什么好耶很棒很棒的问题，你只要知道 39:24要清楚，当我们谈论我们在同一基础上谈论它的杠杆作用 39:28右，使得它被通过一个给定的量来控制所述资产的量 39:33股权权利，使我们有6％的回报，我们利用三倍 39:39意味着我们控制三倍资产与给定量的 39:42公平权利，这就是给你的你是百分之十八，你 39:48知道有没有了在伯克希尔年很多风险ARB的有 39:53有一些你知道他写了它，并在七十年代，但你的主要 39:59你的观点的主旨是绝对准确的权利我的意思的素质 40:03他曾参与那么企业已经超过相当一致 40:10时候你就知道它的财务是它的品牌消费企业等 40:16在那里，他觉得他有什么业务是有可能挣一视图 40:23从现在年不是很多意志或者我应该说，我们与他的想法是 40:29高度的肯定，他可以知道企业是要去看看 40:33就像在未来，所以这种事情都与相关的因素 40:38他们因此无论它的波动性，或者您知道实际的基础 40:45企业本身等，然后杠杆因素的波动是一个巨大的 40:52件正确的，因为不仅他从浮动的杠杆作用有 40:59保险公司它的方式是购买伯克希尔哪里好

41:04它是一个投资组合持有了合作关系，而且通过 41:09与未实现的资本相关的递延所得税负债的杠杆作用 41:15在证券组合收益，所以你知道我们可以谈谈你知道的利润 41:23并避免杠杆率，但真的是他在谈论的是具有杠杆 41:29有一个本金所以相关的优惠券到期日或杠杆 41:34所以你知道与之相关的利息支付浮动书面及以下 41:41适当趋于前来，当然了的在接近免费的成本伪证 41:49首先所得税负债不承担任何利息，所以我认为你是正确的 41:53但我也想说，你知道我认为这是很容易不容易，但你 42:00知道你可以做统计分析，并运行回归和 42:05看什么因素导致，这是一个有一个有一个的成功 42:11之所以你知道有一个更多的BUFF是正确的，所以我不知道我是否 42:18一定认为我们可以只是做一个量子模型，如果复制巴菲特 42:23今天我们开始用相同的因素，以及因此它的参数的一部分 42:28是它不像私营公司出售对不起对不起，让我 42:32那行，所以我同意你的意见，以及和我不认为地址 42:36巴菲特想永远得到主动权也没有，他认为这是他的技能来 42:41今天活跃没想到得到我做他想做活跃你知道经理 42:46不骂你知道巴菲特将每月一次给的数字，说你 42:51知道这里是什么我做什么，你觉得这是确定好你应该 42:55让您的流动资金关闭或你有太多的固定资产或任何他 42:58说，你知道给伟大的管理者，然后让他们跑他们的业务权 43:03而这就是他的那种MO现在权，所以他不是真正自称是你 43:09知道一个伟大的铸铁伪造，所以他是你知道你买的精度的铸件 43:16最新的理论，有40十亿美元那么你知道这是不是他 43:21买了经理和公司，所以我觉得他有很多更说如何 43:27资本被分配的 43:29企业运行，这确实在那里，他的价值，你在看 43:33六十年代九十年代末我的意思是大部分收益来自来到 43:39在六十年代的业务美国运通一把，然后看到糖果 43:44可口可乐美国运通一次这里主要 43:51其原因是，我们都非常集中回美国运通是 43:56一些三十四十％，而焦炭我觉得还是资本的百分之二十 44:02而当和GEICO也是一个相当显著但如此当他做了这些 44:08投资他们失宠这里的差异化视图和 44:14区分你来自 44:16他做的是削减这些公司给了他的这几样 44:21看有关安全差异点我最喜欢的和美国 44:26各地快递事件，并做了所有的错落你 44:28所以我的观点存在是从这些经验教训似乎集中传言，如果 44:36我将是一个选股很重要 44:39什么是从那里的教训，我们今天能做的事 44:42适用，如果我积极投资选股是我你知道，如果是浓 44:47车辆上的计数器只完成句子计数器是很多 44:53对冲基金开始他们有看和差异化点 44:56球英勇的，它是一个集中，但总是可以的 45:00另一种方式和杀害十年混杂耶绝对爱 45:06问题的权利所以红杉基金右取下有效声誉 45:11按值拆除的形成是因为自助餐的合作伙伴关系禁区右侧的 45:16投资者谁想要保持他们接触股市，即使 45:20浅黄色有人建议，他们并没有这样做，他给的选项 45:24法案罗恩在那里与合作开始红杉的地方，这样的人 45:32谁想要站基本上可以写出下面同样的策略 45:38这有点像 45:39它就像一个伊卡洛斯策略吧我的意思是你飞可怕接近 45:46孙它提高了回报您的问题，她的朋友非常好 45:50你知道的部分原因为成功是他集中在 45:56正确的东东吧 45:59为你的部分原因知道红杉基金的垮台是，

46:04他们被集中在了错误的东东吧，让你知道它的作品真的 46:11还有，只要你知道你不要让我猜的错误是如此点 46:15在何种程度上，你有你在做什么信心应该 46:21确定浓度你愿意，因为如果接受程度 46:26它出错它会如果你集中去可怕的错误，这就是它 46:30你知道这是可恢复的杰里米甚至当我是问你，你知道领先 46:36相同的问题前面你提到了辉煌的格雷厄姆法院有关 46:40巴菲特哦耶权那么那么格雷厄姆问巴菲特有 46:51成为他的品质化合物或战略方面，他说我可以理解 46:58你为什么这样做，但它很难正确的，所以我认为这是为大家 47:06决定自己是否知道他们觉得这是他们的本质是 47:11更像是巴菲特的25 26 27岁以上或更多像你知道在松饼 47:20 40岁或84岁像今天他是 47:23这么多再次感谢你今天在这里和我们在一起，这是