Hans Rosling: 2048亚洲的崛起

======================================
http://dotsub.com/view/7f205cb7-d9ac-470b-a521-4968b646d940
Hans Rosling: 亚洲的崛起
很久以前， 当我还是24岁之时， 我尚是一名位于班加罗尔的圣约翰医学院的学生。 当时，我是一名为期一个月的 公共卫生课程的旁听生。 我的思维模式从那时起开始改变。 这是一门好课程，但改变我思维模式的 不是这门课程本身。 而是因在第一天早晨， 我发现印度学生的表现 居然比我还要优秀，这个残酷的现实。
（笑声）
如你所见，我是一个书呆子。 当我年轻时，我对数据有狂热的喜好。 而且我在瑞典学习时很用功。 我曾在所有课程中都名列前茅。 但在圣约翰时，我却名落孙山了。 我不得不承认，印度学生 比瑞典学生要刻苦努力多了。 他们会三番四次地 阅读他们的课本。 而在瑞典，读完一次后，我们就去夜夜笙歌了。
（笑声）
这对于我的 意义是在于 我生而知之的思维方式 第一次 被改变了。 我意识到 西方世界或许 不再是霸权国家了。 我想你们都大概有这种体验。 那种遇到某个人使你的世界观 发生天翻地覆地改变的经历。 这些都不是数据，虽然我试着让它听起来有趣。
现在， 我，将在这个台上， 来预测亚洲 什么时候会 重夺其导向世界的 主导地位， 正如过去数千年一般。 而且我会尽可能地 得到一个精准的预测 来说明 印度和中国的人均收入 何时会达到西方的水平。 我不是指整体的经济实力， 对于印度来说 赶超英国的整体经济实力 是小菜一碟，因为他们拥有十亿人口。 但是我所想见得是 印度和中国的 人均收入 什么时候会追上英国和美国的水平？
首先，我会介绍一下历史背景。 请问你们可以看到我的数据图么？可以吗？ 我会从1858年开始。 1858年是西方科技水平 大跃进的一年。 在这一年，维多利亚皇后 可以和布坎南总统 通过跨大西洋电报电缆 来交流，这是有史以来的第一次。 他们，是第一对跨大西洋的推客。 （笑声） （鼓掌） 而我，通过神奇的谷歌和网络 找到了布坎南总统 回发给维多利亚皇后的电报。 它的结尾时这样的：“这个电报 将是一种可向世界传播宗教、 文明、自由和法律的神奇工具。”
这句话很动听。可是，我很好奇 他说的是何种自由，以及是何人的自由。 这势必让我们回想起 在1858年时，世界各地都发生了什么。 因为1858年 同时也是亚洲历史的 分水岭。 1858年， 印度所爆发的 民族大起义 被英军镇压了。 印度因此继续忍受了89年的外人统治。
中国在1858年 再一次在鸦片战争中输给了英国。 因此在签订的（不平等）条约中 说明外国人在中国可自由通商。 这意味着用鸦片换取中国商品。
日本在1858年， 被迫签订安政条约 以及承认美日贸易优先权。 因为他们在这几年 被东京港里的黑船威胁。 但日本仍拥有国家主权， 不像印度和中国那样。
让我们来看看这将带来多大的差异。 我将带着这些泡泡 回到Gapminder软件上， 在这里，每个泡泡都代表着一个国家。 人口是由泡泡的大小所代表。 一般横轴都代表人均收入。 竖轴则代表人均寿命。 今天，我又一次带来了一件发明。 为了绿色印度，我将激光束转换成 一根生态友好型木棒。
（鼓掌）
正如你们所料一样。 1858年，印度和中国是在这里， 日本则在那里。 美国和英国 则更是在那边。 世界将从这样开始。 印度以前不是这样的。 让我们回想百年以前的 印度和中国， 那时，两国的人均收入 是比欧洲的水平还高。 然而，在1850年时，两国已饱受多年的外国侵略， 何况印度的工业能力还被削弱。 而经济正在发展的国家 则是英美两国。 在十九世纪末时，他们的国民身体素质也得以改善， 至于日本则开始奋起直追。 偏偏印度还深陷泥沼。 你们可以看见他的确是在动吗？ 国家主权完整使日本受益匪浅。 日本一直在尝试赶上去。
新世界到了。英美两国的国民 身体素质更加强化了。 但要小心，一战的脚步已经近了。 正如你所料，在一战期间 会爆发很多经济问题和导致死亡。 英国在走下坡路。 西班牙流感又接踵而来。 一战后，他们继续向上攀升。 印中两国由于仍被外来政权统治着， 因此他们还在下面的角落里。 无甚变化。 只是人口有所增加罢了。 现在到了三十年代， 日本正处于战争时期， 国民寿命普遍低下。 二战对日本来说，尤其在经济上， 是一场噩梦。 但战后他们恢复的相对迅速。 我们正迈向新世界。 印度终于于1947年 成独立国家。 他们可以升起他们自己的国旗并且成为一主权国家， 却仍举步维艰。
(鼓掌)
在1949年，新中国的诞生 使全世界都为之惊奇。 之后发生了什么？ 在独立之后发生了什么？ 正如你所见，国民的健康有所进步。 儿童们有学上。 医疗设施也逐渐出现。 现正是大跃进时期，中国摔了一大跤。 这是由毛泽东统一计划的。 中国恢复元气后， 他们则说：“前事不忘，后事之师。” 中国又日趋上升，印度则是吊车尾。 他们都正迎头赶上。 两国的国民健康大大改善， 然后经济水平仍有待提高。
现在来到1978年，毛泽东已去世， 新一代领导出现。 而邓小平正冉冉上升。 他说：“不管 黑猫白猫，抓到老鼠 就是好猫。” 因为这正是 这两只大猫想做的。 正如你们所知，中印两只大猫 是想要抓住那边的老鼠。 因此他们决定不仅要发展教育和公共卫生， 也要开始发展经济。 改革开放是成功的。 在1992年印度也开始了经济改革。 他们走的很近， 而且两国颇多相似之处， 而且差异不多。
他们齐头并进。可是能迎头赶上么？
这是现今世界的一个大问题。 今天，他们处在哪里。
这说明了—— (掌声) 他们的平均水平，这是中国的平均水平。 假如将中国分开来看， 看，上海已经赶上了。 上海已经在上面哪里。 而且市民的平均寿命比美国还长。 然而，贵州，中国最穷的 一个内陆省，在那里。 假如我将贵州分成城市和乡下两部分， 贵州乡下仍继续下滑。 在中国的迅速经济发展下， 隐藏着极大的问题。
我们再来看看印度， 我们会看到另一种不平等。 从地理的角度上来看，差距不大。 北方邦，是印度的最大邦， 比起其他邦来说是较为贫穷落后的。 克拉拉邦则处于领先地位， 而且就公共卫生一项来说已赶上了美国， 偏偏不包括经济。 这里，孟买的所在邦，马哈拉斯特拉邦， 正向前迈进。 在印度，不平等是体现在邦内， 而非邦与邦之间。 这并不是一件坏事。 假如在宏观地理上有太大差距， 这将会成为一长期隐患， 但在每个区域都有一经济发展中心， 并且离穷人居住区近的话，这将会更好。
看，这还有一不平等的问题。看这里，美国。 (笑声) 他已将我的框框撑破。 华盛顿特区已跑到那里。 我在Gapminder的朋友想我将这展现给你们 因为现在白宫有了新主人 而且很关心公共卫生体系。 况且我也明白他的心情，因为华盛顿特区 居民收入已非常之高 但却比克拉拉邦的居民还短命。 很有趣是吧。 (鼓掌) 我帮克拉拉邦找到一生意， 就是去帮美国建设他们的公共卫生体系。
(笑声)
(鼓掌)
现在来看看全球。图例则在这里。 你们看到这两只巨猫在跋涉向前， 在他们之间 或在他们前面， 正是现时的全球经济， 这就是托马斯·弗里德曼所说的“世界是平的”。 你可以看见，很大一部分的 世界人口中的卫生和教育体系正在进步， 只是在非洲，或者其他地方， 如中国的贵州乡下， 仍然有许多人处在困境之中。 现今世界贫富差距悬殊。 但大多中间阶层国家都进步的很快。
好，回到我的预测。 但两国何时能迎头赶上？我们必须使用传统图表。 竖轴代表着人均收入， 穷富递进相增。 回溯到1858年 世界由此开始。 让我们来观察下世界将会如何改变。 中国正处于半殖民半封建时期 而他们国民收入已降低至印度的水准。 同一时间，英美则越来越富有。 二战后，英国被美国赶超。 与此同时，独立的曙光则洒在中印两国头上。 经济经过改革后开始增长。 增长速率加快，并且加上国际货币组织的预测 这正是两国于2014年会到达的水平。
现时的问题则是：“他们何时会赶上？” 再来回看下美国。 看的见那些泡泡？ 不是我的泡沫， 而是经济泡沫。 看，雷曼兄弟的门槛在这。 看这里的下滑趋势。 英国也因受影响而下滑。 这些国家走的并不是阳光大道。 反而是崎岖不平的。 是故关注经济增长的人们 则转移视线至亚洲。
我们将日本也加进来。日本是日趋上升。 日本是这样发展的。 日本也加入美英的行列。 毫无疑问，他们追的很快 且赶上了。 看看日本怎么做的。 直到完全赶上，日本是这样发展的， 接下来就紧随着高收入国家的脚步。 不过我做出的预测 则是这样的。 是福祸相依的。 未来是难以预测的。 偏偏有一位历史学家告诉我过去更难预测。
(笑声)
我在左右为难中。 中印两国的最大障碍 就是不平等， 要使百业具兴 则定要创建一国内市场 来避免社会的不稳定 并能使广大的群众 都投身其中。 所以中印两国绝需建设 完备的医疗，教育，电力等基础设施。
气候是一全球问题。有一位印度的专家 指出全球气候正在变化 我们必须采取行动， 否则，中印两国 则会首当其冲。 我想中国和印度应是在 气候问题上的最佳伙伴。 但他们不应 为那些造成这些恶果的国家 背黑锅，而我认为也应这样做。
但我最担心战争爆发。 那些现今的大国 能接受世界经济体系的改变 和承认已有50至100年，甚至是霸主地位的移交么 甚至是150年的 的霸主地位的移交么？ 抑或亚洲能够 承受住作为世界霸主的 压力和重担吗？ 因此一定要避免战争， 因为战争是人类倒退的罪魁祸首。 若是这些问题都能被解决， 那么就准备迎来一平等的世界吧。 因为这正是历史的潮流。
这是我尚是一名学生时， 于1972年，得知印度人比瑞典人要好的多时， 所知道的未来。 更准确些，这 将会在2048年发生， 会在季夏，7月份发生， 更精准些，是7月27日。 (鼓掌) 2048年7月27日 是我的期颐之时。 (笑声) 而我则希望能在第一节 第39届TED印度大会上演讲。 请及时预定座位！谢谢。
(鼓掌)
--------------------------
Hans Rosling: Asia's rise -- how and when
Once upon a time, at the age of 24, I was a student at St. John's Medical College in Bangalore. I was a guest student during one month of a public health course. And that changed my mindset forever. The course was good, but it was not the course content in itself that changed the mindset. It was the brutal realization, the first morning, that the Indian students were better than me.

(Laughter)

You see, I was a study nerd. I loved statistics from a young age. And I studied very much in Sweden. I used to be in the upper quarter of all courses I attended. But in St. John's, I was in the lower quarter. And the fact was that Indian students studied harder than we did in Sweden. They read the textbook twice, or three times or four times. In Sweden we read it once and then we went partying.

(Laugher)

And that, to me, that personal experience was the first time in my life that the mindset I grew up with was changed. And I realized that perhaps the Western world will not continue to dominate the world forever. And I think many of you have the same sort of personal experience. It's that realization of someone you meet that really made you change your ideas about the world. It's not the statistics, although I tried to make it funny.

And I will now, here, onstage, try to predict when that will happen -- that Asia will regain its dominant position as the leading part of the world, as it used to be, over thousands of years. And I will do that by trying to predict precisely at what year the average income per person in India, in China, will reach that of the West. And I don't mean the whole economy, because to grow an economy of India to the size of U.K. -- that's a piece of cake, with one billion people. But I want to see when will the average pay, the money for each person, per month, in India and China, when will that have reached that of U.K. and the United States?

But I will start with a historical background. And you can see my map if I get it up here. No? I would start at 1858. 1858 was a year of great technological advancement in the West. That was the year when Queen Victoria was able, for the first time, to communicate with President Buchanan, through the Transatlantic Telegraphic Cable. And they were the first to "Twitter" transatlantically. (Laughter) (Applause) And I've been able, through this wonderful Google and Internet, to find the text of the telegram sent back from President Buchanan to Queen Victoria. And it ends like this: "This telegraph is a fantastic instrument to diffuse religion, civilization, liberty and law throughout the world."

Those are nice words. But I got sort of curious of what he meant with liberty, and liberty for whom. And we will think about that when we look at the wider picture of the world in 1858. Because 1858 was also watershed year in the history of Asia. 1858 was the year when the courageous uprising against the foreign occupation of India was defeated by the British forces. And India was up to 89 years more of foreign domination.

1858 in China was the victory in the Opium War by the British forces. And that meant that foreigners, as it said in the treaty, were allowed to trade freely in China. It meant paying with opium for Chinese goods.

In 1858 in Japan, was the year when Japan had to sign the Harris Treaty and accept trade on favorable condition for the U.S. And they were threatened by those black ships there, that had been in Tokyo harbor over the last year. But, Japan, in contrast to India and China maintained its national sovereignty.

And let's see how much difference that can make. And I will do that by bringing these bubbles back to a Gapminder graph here, where you can see each bubble is a country. The size of the bubble here is the population. On this axis, as I used to have income per person in comparable dollar. And on that axis I have life expectancy, the health of people. And I also bring an innovation here. I have transformed the laser beam into an ecological, recyclable version here, in green India.

(Applause)

And we will see, you know. Look here, 1858, India was here, China was here, Japan was there, United States and United Kingdom was richer over there. And I will start the world like this. India was not always like this level. Actually if we go back into the historical record, there was a time hundreds of years ago when the income per person in India and China was even above that of Europe. But 1850 had already been many many years of foreign domination, and India had been deindustralized. And you can see that the countries who were growing their economy was United States and United Kingdom. And they were also, by the end of the century, getting healthy, and Japan was starting to catch up. India was trying down here. Can you see how it starts to move there? But really, really natural sovereignty was good for Japan. And Japan is trying to move up there.

And it's the new century now. Health is getting better, United Kingdom, United States. But careful now -- we are approaching the First World War. And the First World War, you know, we'll see a lot of deaths and economical problems here. United Kingdom is going down. And now comes the Spanish flu also. And then after the First World War, they continue up. Still under foreign domination, and without sovereignty, India and China are down in the corner. Not much has happened. They have grown their population but not much more. In the 1930's now, you can see that Japan is going to a period of war, with lower life expectancy. And the Second World War was a really terrible event, also economically for Japan. But they did recover quite fast afterwards. And we are moving into the new world. In 1947 India finally gained its independence. And they could raise the Indian flag and become a sovereign nation, but in very big difficulties down there.

(Applause)

In 1949 we saw the emergence of the modern China in a way which surprised the world. And what happened? What happens in the after independence? You can see that the health started to improve. Children started to go to school. Health services were provided. This is the Great Leap Forward, when China fell down. It was central planning by Mao Tse Tung. China recovered. Then they said, "Nevermore, stupid central planning." But they went up here, and India was trying to follow. And they were catching up indeed. And both countries had the better health, but still a very low economy.

And we came to 1978, and Mao Tse Tung died, and a new guy turned up from the left. And it was Deng Xiaoping coming out here. And he said, "Doesn't matter if a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice." Because catching mice is what the two cats wanted to do. And you can see the two cats being here, China and India, wanting to catch the mices over there, you know. And they decided to go not only for health and education, but also starting to grow their economy. And the market reformer was successful there. In '92 India follows with a market reform. And they go quite closely together, and you can see that the similarity with India and China, in many ways, are greater than the differences with them.

And here they march on. And will they catch up?

This is the big question today. There they are today.

Now what does it mean that the -- (Applause) the averages there -- this is the average of China. If I would split China, look here, Shanghai has already catched up. Shanghai is already there. And it's healthier than the United States. But on the other hand, Guizhou, one of the poorest inland provinces of China, is there. And if I split Guizhou into urban and rural, the rural part of Guizhou goes down there. You see these enormous inequity in China, in the midst of fast economic growth.

And if I would also look at India, you have another type of inequity, actually, in India. The geographical, macrogeographical difference is not so big. Uttar Pradesh, the biggest of the states here, is poorer and has a lower health than the rest of India. Kerala is flying on top there, matching United States in health, but not in economy. And here, Maharashtra, with Mumbai, is forging forward. Now in India, the big inequities are within the state, rather than between the states. And that is not a bad thing, in itself. If you have a lot inequity, macrogeographical inequities can be more difficult in the long term, to deal with, than if it is in the same area where you have a growth center relatively close to where poor people are living.

No, there is one more inequity. Look there, United States. (Laughter) Oh, they broke my frame. Washington, D.C. went out here. My friends at Gapminder wanted me to show this because there is a new leader in Washington who is really concerned about the health system. And I can understand him, because Washington, D.C. is so rich over there but they are not as healthy as Kerala. It's quite interesting isn't it? (Applause) I can see a business opportunity for Kerala, helping fix the health system in the United States.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

Now here we have the whole world. You have the legend down there. And when you see the two giant cats here, pushing forward, you see that in between them and ahead of them, is the whole emerging economies of the world, which Thomas Friedman so correctly called the "flat world." You can see that in health and education a large part of the world population is putting forward, but in Africa, and other parts, as in rural Guizhou in China, there is still people with low health and very low economy. We have an enormous disparity in the world. But most of the world in the middle are pushing forwards very fast.

Now, back to my projections. When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph. I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there. And then time here, from 1858 I start the world. And we shall see what will happen with these countries. You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here. Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K. But independence is coming here. Growth is starting, economic reform. Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.

Now, the question is, "When will the catch-up take place?" Look at, look at the United States. Can you see the bubble? The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. That's the dot com bubble. This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. You see it came down there. And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know. So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries. They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know. And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia.

I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. You see, Japan did it like that. We add Japan to it. And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place. Can you see here what Japan did? Japan did it like this, until full catch-up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies. But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. Can be worse, can be better. It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future. Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.

(Laughter)

I think I'm in a difficult position here. Inequalities in China and India I consider really the big obstacle because to bring the entire population into growth and prosperity is what will create a domestic market, what will avoid social instability, and which will make use of the entire capacity of the population. So, social investments in health, education and infrastructure, and electricity is really what is needed in India and China.

You know the climate. We have great international experts within India telling us that the climate is changing, and actions has to be taken, otherwise China and India would be the countries most to suffer from climate change. And I consider India and China the best partners in the world in a good global climate policy. But they ain't going to pay for what others, who have more money, have largely created, and I can agree on that.

But what I'm really worried about is war. Will the former rich countries really accept a completely changed world economy, and a shift of power away from where it has been the last 50 to 100 to 150 years, back to Asia? And will Asia be able to handle that new position of being in charge of being the most mighty, and the governors of the world? So, always avoid war, because that always pushes human beings backward. Now if these inequalities, climate and war can be avoided, get ready for a world in equity. Because this is what seems to be happening.

And that vision that I got as a young student, 1972, that Indians can be much better than Swedes, is just about to happen. And it will happen precisely the year 2048 in the later part of the summer, in July, more precisely, the 27th of July. (Applause) The 27th of July, 2048 is my 100th birthday. (Laughter) And I expect to speak in the first session of the 39th TED India. Get your bookings in time. Thank you very much.

(Applause)