Hans Rosling 探讨全球人口增长

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http://dotsub.com/view/ca899909-020b-4177-a875-bb34c385d37f
Hans Rosling 探讨全球人口增长
我仍然记得我还在上学的时候 老师告诉我们 世界的人口总数已经达到了 30亿人口。 那还是在1960年。 现在我要谈谈 从那个年代到现在 世界人口是怎样变化的。 但是我不会像我上五次谈话那样 使用数码科技。 相反的，我进步了。 我在今天，会展示 一个崭新的模拟教学科技 这是我从宜家买来的， 这个箱子。
这个箱子包含十亿人口。 我的老师告诉我 在工业化的世界，1960年， 有十个亿的人口。 在发展中的国家，她说道， 有两亿人口 而且他们的生活相对隔离。 在10亿的工业化世界 和20亿的发展中世界 有一个巨大的鸿沟。 在工业化世界， 人们健康， 良好教育，富有， 并且有较小的家庭。 他们的心愿 就是买辆车。 在1960年，整个瑞典都在存钱 去买一辆像这样的沃尔沃。 这就是当时瑞典的经济水平。 但是相对的， 在遥远的发展中国家， 中等家庭的愿望则是 每天能够有食物。 而他们存钱 是想买一双鞋。 在我所长大的世界里 是有一个巨大的鸿沟。 这个在西方世界和其他国家的鸿沟 所创造的世界观 就是我们今天口头上 提到“西方世界” 和“发展中国家。” 但是世界已经变化了， 是时候去升级这个世界观了， 去对世界分类，以及了解这个分类。
这就是我将要向你们展示的。 因为自从1960年 到2010年间，所发生的是 一个惊人 的四十亿人口 加入到了世界人口中。 看看有多少。 从我上学到现在 世界人口已经翻倍了。 而且当然的，西方的经济也增长了。 很多公司的经济都增长了， 所以西方的人口就移动到这。 现在人们所想的不是买辆车。 现在他们想买的是一个在遥远地方的假期 而且要飞去。 所以他们现在在这。 然而这里最成功的发展中国家， 他们也移动了，你知道的。 他们成了我们口中的新兴经济体。 现在他们也买车了。 而且就在一个月以前 一个叫做吉利的中国公司 收购了沃尔沃公司。 这样瑞典在终于意识到 世界发生了一些大的变化。 （笑）
所以他们现在在这。 悲惨是，在这里的二十亿 还在为食物和鞋子挣扎， 他们仍然和50年前 一样的贫穷。 区别就在 我们有最多的30个亿在这里， 正在成为新兴经济体， 因为他们颇为健康，相对受过教育， 他们也有两到三个小孩 平均每个妇女。 他们现在的愿望是 显然的，买一辆自行车， 他们过一段时间还会想要摩托车。 但是这就是 我们现在所有的世界。 没有鸿沟。 但是贫穷的还是非常贫穷， 和富有的相比，差距更大了。 但是这是一个渐变的世界 从走路，自行车， 到汽车，到飞行 所有水准都有。 大多数人是在这中间。 这是我们在2010的 世界。
那未来会发生什么？ 好的，我现在要穿越到 2050年。 我最近在上海。 我也听到了中国所发生的事情。 显然他们会像日本一样 迎头赶上。 未来--这个会长 一到两个百分比。 这个会长7，8个。他们会前进到这里。 他们也会开始常坐飞机。 而这些 中低收入国家，新兴经济体国家， 他们会在经济上进一步增长。 如果 但是只有如果 我们投入到正确的绿色科技 -- 我们才能避免严重的气候变化， 能源才能相对的便宜 -- 这样他们才会都移到这里来。 他们才会开始购买 电子汽车。 这就是我们在这里发现的。
那么最贫穷的那20亿呢？ 最贫穷的20亿会怎么样呢？ 他们会怎样移动呢？ 好吧，这里人口会先增加 因为每个妇女平均有2到3个小孩， 家庭计划会被普遍采用， 人口增长会走到尽头。 这里，人口增长。 所以这两亿，在下面的几十年里， 会增长到30亿。 然后会继续 增长到40亿。 任何事情 除非有一个我们都没有见过的核战争 才能阻止这个增长。 因为我们已经在这个进程中了。 但是如果，只有如果 他们能脱离贫穷， 他们能受教育，能提高儿童成活率， 他们才能买自行车，手机，他们会移动到这儿来， 然后人口增长 会在2050停止。 我们不能让这些人在这个水准 还在寻找食物和鞋子， 因为那样我们的人口会继续增长。
现在让我来告诉你为什么 用我老式的 数码科技来告诉你们。 在屏幕上显示的 是国家泡泡。 每一个泡泡代表一个国家。大小是人口。 颜色是不同的大洲。 黄色是美国。 深蓝是非洲，棕色是欧洲， 绿色是中东， 浅蓝是亚洲。 这是印度，这是中国。大小是人口。 这边我们有每个妇女所有的小孩， 2个，4个，6个和8个-- 大的家庭，小的家庭。 这是1960年。 这里，儿童存活率， 每个儿童存活的百分比 一直到学龄前儿童。 60%，70%，80%，90%， 以及几乎100%，就跟现今 在最富有和最健康的国家里一样。 看，这就是我老师口中的1960年的世界。 西方国家一个亿， 高儿童存活率，小家庭。 和所有其他， 其他五彩斑斓的发展中国家， 都有大的家庭 和很低的儿童存活率。
发生了什么？我来发动世界，开始了。 你可以看到随这时光的流逝，儿童存活率增加了吗？ 他们有肥皂，清洁剂，教育 假期，和青霉素。 然后家庭计划。家庭大小降低了。 他们有大概90%的存活率，然后家庭变小了。 然后大多数中东的阿拉伯国家 都降低到这里。 看，孟加拉国国赶上了印度。 整个新兴经济体 加入了西方世界 有着高的儿童存活率 和较小的家庭大小。 但是我们还是有这最贫穷的十亿。 你可以看到那最贫穷的十亿， 那些那边的箱子？ 他们还在那里。 他们的儿童存活率还是 70%到80%。 也就是说，如果你有6个小孩， 最后只有4个能存活 变成下一代。 而且人口会在下一代翻倍。
所以能阻止 世界人口增长 的唯一办法是提高儿童存活率 到90%。 那就是为什么盖茨的基金， 儿童基金会和急救机构 和贫穷国家的国家政府 是很好的组织。 因为他们实际上 在帮助我们 达到一个能持续发展的人口数。 我们可以停在90个亿，如果我们能做正确的事情。 儿童存活率是一个崭新的梦想。 只有通过提高儿童存活率 我们才能阻止人口增长。 这会发生吗？ 好吧，我不是乐观主义者， 我也不是悲观主义者。 我是一个十分严肃的“可能性主义者” 这是一个新词，当我们把我们的个人情绪抛开， 我们就只专注于分析世界。 就可以被做到。 我们可以做到更多。 伴随这绿色科技 和对减轻贫困的投资 和全球控制， 世界能变成这样。
再来看看旧日的西方世界所占据的位置。 记住这个蓝色的箱子一直都是单独地 带领这世界，生活在自己的生活中。 这种情况不会再继续下去了。 旧西方世界在新世界的地位 会是一个现代化世界 的基础-- 不比这个多，也不比这个少。 但是是一个十分重要的角色。 做好这个角色，而且要适应这个角色。
十分谢谢你们。
（掌声）


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Hans Rosling on global population growth
I still remember the day in school when our teacher told us that the world population had become three billion people. And that was in 1960. And I'm going to talk now about how world population has changed from that year and into the future. But I will not use digital technology as I've done during my first five TEDTalks. Instead, I have progressed. And I am, today, launching a brand new analog teaching technology that I picked up from IKEA: this box.

This box contains one billion people. And our teacher told us that the industrialized world, 1960, had one billion people. In the developing world, she said, they had two billion people. And they lived away then. There was a big gap between the one billion in the industrialized world and the two billion in the developing world. In the industrialized world, people were healthy, educated, rich, and they had small families. And their aspiration was to buy a car. And in 1960, all Swedes were saving to try to buy a Volvo like this. This was the economic level at which Sweden was. But in contrast to this, in the developing world, far away, the aspiration of the average family there was to have food for the day. And they were saving to be able to buy a pair of shoes. There was an enormous gap in the world when I grew up. And this gap between the West and the rest has created a mindset of the world which we still use linguistically when we talk about "the West" and "the Developing World." But the world has changed, and it's overdue to upgrade that mindset and that taxonomy of the world, and to understand it as it now is.

And that's what I'm going to show you. Because since 1960, what has happened in the world up to 2010 is that a staggering four billion people have been added to the world population. Just look how many. The world population has doubled since I went to school. And of course, there's been economic growth in the West. A lot of companies have happened to grow the economy, so the Western population moved over to here. And now their aspiration is not only to have a car. Now they want to have a holiday on a very remote destination and they want to fly. So this is where they are today. And the most successful of the developing countries, they have moved on, you know. And they have become emerging economies, we call them. And they are now buying cars. And what happened a month ago was that the Chinese company, Geely, they acquired the Volvo company. And then finally the Swedes understood that something big had happened in the world. (Laughter)

So there they are. And the tragedy is that the two billion over here [are still] struggling for food and shoes, they are still almost as poor as they were 50 years ago. The new thing is that we have the biggest pile of billions, the three billions here, which are also becoming emerging economies, because they are quite healthy, relatively well-educated, and they already also have two or three children per woman, as those [richer also] have. And their aspiration now is, of course, to buy a bicycle, and then later on they would like to have a motorbike also. But this is the world we have today. No longer any gap. But the distance from the poorest here, the very poorest, to the very richest over here, is wider than ever. But there is a continuous world from walking, biking, driving to flying -- [there are] people on all levels. And most people tend to be somewhere in the middle. This is the new world we have today in 2010.

And what will happen in the future? Well, I'm going to project into 2050. I was in Shanghai recently. And I listened to what's happening in China. And it's pretty sure that they will catch up, just as Japan did. All the projections [say that] this one [billion] will [only] grow with one to two or three percent. [But this second] grows with seven, eight percent. And then they will land up here. They will start flying. And these lower or middle income countries, the emerging income countries, they will also forge forwards economically. And if, but only if, we invest in the right green technology -- so that we can avoid severe climate change, and energy can still be relatively cheap -- then they will move all the way up here. And they will start to buy electric cars. This is what we will find there.

So what about the poorest two billion? What about the poorest two billion here? Will they move on? Well, here population [growth] comes in because there [among emerging economies] we already have two to three children per woman, family planning is widely used, and population growth is coming to an end. [But here among the poorest], population is growing. So these [poorest] two billion will, in the next decades, increase to three billion. And they will thereafter increase to four billion. There is nothing -- but a nuclear war of a kind we've never seen -- that can stop this [growth] from happening. Because we already have this [growth] in process. But if, and only if, [the poorest] get out of poverty, they get education, they get improved child survival, they can buy a bicycle and a cellphone and come [to live] here, then population growth will stop in 2050. We cannot have people on this level looking for food and shoes, because then we get continued population growth.

And let me show you why by converting back to the old-time digital technology. Here I have on the screen my country bubbles. Every bubble is a country. The size is population. The colors show the continent. The yellow is the Americas; dark blue is Africa; brown is Europe; green is the Middle East; and this light blue is South Asia. That's India and this is China. Size is population. Here I have children per woman, two children, four children, six children, eight children -- big families [versus] small families. The year is 1960. And down here, child survival, the percentage of children surviving childhood up to starting school. 60 percent, 70 percent, 80 percent, 90, and almost 100 percent, as we have today in the wealthiest and healthiest countries. But look, this is the world my teacher talked about in 1960. One billion Western world here, high child-survival, small families. And all the rest, the rainbow of developing countries, with very large families and poor child survival.

What has happened? I start the world. Here we go. Can you see, as the years pass by, child survival is increasing? They get soap, hygiene, education, vaccination and penicillin. And then family planning. Family size is decreasing. [When] they get up to 90-percent child survival, then families decrease. And most of the Arab countries in the Middle East is falling down there [to small families]. Look, Bangladesh catching up with India. [All] emerging economies [in the] world joins the Western world with good child survival and small family size. But we still have the poorest billion. Can you see the poorest billion, those [two] boxes I had over here? They are still up here. And they still have a child survival of only 70 to 80 percent, meaning that if you have six children born, there will be at least four who survive to the next generation. And the population will double in one generation.

So the only way of really getting world population growth to stop is to continue to improve child survival to 90 percent. That's why [health] investments by Gates Foundation, UNICEF and aid organizations, together with national government in the poorest countries, are so good. Because they are actually helping us to reach a sustainable population size of the world. We can stop at nine billion if we do the right things. Child survival is the new green. It's only by child survival that we will stop population growth. And will it happen? Well, I'm not an optimist, neither am I a pessimist. I'm a very serious "possibilist." It's a new category where we take emotion apart, and we just work analytically with the world. It can be done. We can have a much more just world. With green technology and with investments to alleviate poverty, and with good global governance, the world can become like this.

And look at the position of the old West. Remember when this blue box was all alone, leading the world, living its own life. This will not happen again. The role of the old West in the new world is to become [part of] the foundation of the modern world -- nothing more, nothing less. But it's a very important role. Do it well and get used to it.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)