IISSorg2013.5.10---亚洲的海军军备竞赛

IISSorg2013.5.10---亚洲的海军军备竞赛
The Asia-Pacific region is likely to be the fulcrum of international security affairs in the twenty-first century. As the region's economies become stronger, defence budgets are rising and navies are expanding and modernising. Some aspects of this procurement drive show the hallmarks of an arms race--action--reaction dynamics between peer competitors. Is the Asia-Pacific on the brink of an outright naval arms race, that could entail vast expenditures, threaten regional security and severely disrupt global trade? Or can rising naval capabilities and a desire for prestige among regional powers be reconciled with economic interdependence, freedom of navigation and managed competition between great powers? Professor Geoffrey Till has analysed the naval expansion of the four major Asia-Pacific powers -- the US, China, India and Japan. His study looks at recent and planned procurement to find examples of action--reaction behaviour, and analyses the underlying tensions and the potential for competition. It offers an insight into the size, expenditure and capability of the naval forces in each country and the role of the navy in overall military strategy; examines naval philosophies and specific security concerns, and how these will influence decision-making; and assesses how each nation's naval strategy is evolving in response not only to global threats, but to shifts in the regional power balance. Geoffrey Till is a British naval historian and Professor of Maritime Studies in the Defence Studies Department of King's College London. He is the Director of the Corbett Centre for Maritime Policy Studies.
亚太地区可能是在二十一世纪的国际安全事务的支点。由于该地区的经济变得更强，国防预算上升和海军扩大和现代化。本次采购的驱动器的某些方面显示同行竞争对手之间的军备竞赛-行动-反应动力学的特点。是亚太彻头彻尾的海军军备竞赛，可能会带来巨大的支出，对地区安全构成威胁，严重扰乱全球贸易的边缘？或者可以上升的海军能力和威信的欲望地区大国之间的和解与经济相互依存，航行自由以及大国之间的竞争管理教授杰弗里直到分析了海军扩张的四大亚太权力-美国，中国，印度和日本。他的研究着眼于近期和采购计划，找到行动的例子-反应行为，并分析潜在的紧张和竞争的潜力。它提供了一个洞察每个国家的海军力量和海军的整体军事战略的作用的大小，开支和能力;考察海军的理念和具体的安全问题，以及如何，这些都将影响决策，并评估每个国家的海军战略是不断发展的，不仅对全球的威胁，但变化在地区的力量平衡。杰弗里·蒂尔是英国海军历史学家和海事研究的伦敦大学国王学院国防研究系教授。他是科比特海洋政策研究中心主任。