TED Talks2016.2.29---Dambisa Moyo :让我们来解决经济增长停滞
TED Talks2016.2.29---Dambisa Moyo :让我们来解决经济增长停滞
發佈日期：2016年2月29日
Economic growth is the defining challenge of our time; without it, political and social instability rises, human progress stagnates and societies grow dimmer. But, says economist Dambisa Moyo, dogmatic capitalism isn't creating the growth we need. As she shows, in both state-sponsored and market-driven models, capitalism is failing to solve social ills, fostering corruption and creating income inequality. Moyo surveys the current economic landscape and suggests that we have to start thinking about capitalism as a spectrum so we can blend the best of different models together to foster growth.
经济增长是我们这个时代的决定性挑战;没有它，政治和社会不稳定上升，人类进步的停滞和社会发展的调光器。但是他说，经济学家Dambisa莫约，教条式的资本主义也没有创造我们所需要的增长。当她表明，在这两个国家支持和市场驱动的车型，资本主义未能解决社会弊病，培育腐败和创造收入的不平等。莫约调查了当前的经济形势，并建议我们必须开始思考资本主义作为一种频谱，所以我们可以融合最好的型号不同，共同促进增长。
==========Google 翻译==========
0:08our ability to create and sustain economic growth is the defining
0:19challenge of our time of course there are other challenges healthcare disease
0:24burdens and pandemic environmental challenges and of course radicalized
0:31terrorism however to the extent that we can actually make the economic growth
0:37challenge it will take us a long way to solving the challenges that I just
0:41investigated more importantly unless and until we solve economic growth and
0:49create a favorable long-term economic growth will be unable to address the
0:56seemingly intractable challenges that continue to provide the globe today
1:00whether it's health care education or economic development the fundamental
1:07question is this how are we going to create economic growth in advance from
1:12developed economies like the United States across Europe at the time with
1:17the continued to struggle to create economic growth after the financial
1:20crisis they continue to underperform and to see an erosion in the three key
1:27drivers of economic growth capital labor and productivity in particular these
1:35developed economies continue to see depth and deficits the decline and
1:41erosion of both the quality and quantity of labor and they also see productivity
1:47starting in a similar vein how we're going to create economic growth in the
1:52emerging markets where ninety percent of the world's population lives and where
1:57on average seventy percent of the population is under the age of 25 in
2:02these countries it is essential that they grow at a minimum of 7 percent a
2:07year are in order to put a dent in poverty and to double per capita incomes
2:12in one generation and yet
2:15today the largest emerging economies countries with at least 50 million
2:20people continue to struggle to reach that 7% magic mark was then that
2:26countries like India Russia South Africa Brazil and even China I'm falling below
2:32that 7% number and in many cases actually regressive economic growth
2:38matters with economic growth countries and societies internship virtuous cycle
2:45of upward mobility opportunity and improved living standards without growth
2:52countries contract and atrophy not just in the annals of economic statistics but
2:58also in the meaning of life and how lives in the economic growth matches
3:04powerfully for the individual growth wanes the risk to human progress and the
3:11risk of political and social instability rises and societies become dimmer and
3:18smaller the context tactics and countries and emerging markets do not
3:24need to grow at the same rate of developed country now I know some of you
3:30in this room
3:31find this to be a risky proposition for some people here who will turn around
3:37and Phoebe quite disillusioned by what's happened around the world and basically
3:41ascribe to economic growth you worry about overpopulation of the planet and
3:47looking at the UN recent statistics on projections that the world had been
3:51eleven billion people on the planet before tech toes and 2100 you concerned
3:56about what that does to natural resources
3:59arable and potable water energy and minerals you also concerned about the
4:06degradation of the environment and you worrying about how men in the body in a
4:12cobra nobilis has become greedy and corrupt but I'm here to tell you today
4:20economic growth has been the backbone of changes moving and living standards of
4:25millions of people around the world and more importantly it's not just economic
4:30growth has been driven by capitalism the definition of capitalism very simply put
4:38is that the factors of production such as trade and industry capital labor I
4:45left in the hands of the private sector and not the state it's really essential
4:50here that we understand that fundamentally the critique is not for
4:55economic growth per se but what has happened to capitalism and to the extent
5:00that we need to create economic growth over the long term we're going to have
5:04to pursue it with a better form of economic sense
5:08economic growth needs capturing them but it needs it to work properly and as i
5:15mentioned a moment ago the core of the capitalist system has been defined by
5:21private actors and even miss however is a very simplistic dichotomy capitalism
5:28good non capitalism bad when in practical experience
5:33capitalism is much more of a spectrum and we have countries such as China
5:38which have practice more state capitalism and we have countries like
5:42the united states which are more market capitalists all our efforts to critique
5:46the capitalist system however have tended to focus on countries like China
5:51that are in fact not blatantly market kept in this however there is a real
5:57reason and real concern for us to now focus on detentions on pure forms of
6:03Captain Awesome particularly those embodied by the United States this is
6:07really important because these type of capitalism has increasingly been
6:13afforded the critique that it is now fostering corruption and were still it's
6:18increasing income inequality the idea that there are few are benefiting at the
6:25expense of the many but really critical questions that we need to address
6:32is how can we fix capitalism nobody can help create economic growth but at the
6:37same time can help to address social ills in order to think about that
6:43framing we have to ask ourselves how does capitalism work today very
6:48simplistically capitalism is set on the basis of an individual utility maximize
6:55it's selfish individual who goes after what he or she wants and only after
7:01their maximize the utility did they then decide it's important to provide support
7:06to other social contracts of course in this system government to do tax and
7:13they used part of the revenues to fund social programs recognizing the
7:17government's role is not just regulation but also be arbiter of social cuts but
7:23nevertheless this framework two-stage framework is the basis from which we
7:29must now start to think about how we can improve the capitalist I would argue
7:34that there are two sides to this challenge
7:37first of all we can draw on the right wing policies to see what could be
7:42beneficial for us to think about how we can improve captain is in particular
7:47right meaning policies have tended to focus on things like conditional
7:51transfers will we pay and reward people for doing the things that we actually
7:56think can help enhance economic growth for example sending children to school
8:01and parents could earn money for that we're getting the children inoculated
8:06when immunized parents to get paid for doing better now quite apart from the
8:11debate on whether or not we should be paying people to do what we think they
8:16should do anyway the fact of the matter is that pay for performance has actually
8:21you look some positive results in places like Mexico in Brazil and also in pilot
8:27programs in New York but they're also benefits and significant changes
8:32underway
8:33on meth meaning policies arguments that government should expand its role and
8:38responsibilities so that is not so narrowly defined and that government
8:42should be much more of an arbiter of the factors of production have become
8:46commonplace with the success of China but also we've started to have debates
8:51about how the role of the private sector should move away from just being a
8:55profit motive and really be more engaged in the delivery of social programs
8:59things like the corporate social responsibility programs albeit small in
9:04scale are moving that right direction of course also left-leaning policies have
9:11tended to blur the lines between government NGOs and private sector to
9:16very good examples of this are the 19th century the United States when the
9:21infrastructure was really about public-private partnerships more
9:25recently of course the advent of the Internet has also proven to the world
9:29that public and private can work together for the betterment of society
9:33my fundamental message to you is this we cannot continue to try and solve the
9:42world economic growth challenges by being dogmatic I'm being unnecessarily
9:47ideological in order to create sustainable long-term economic growth
9:53and thought the challenges and social ills that continue to plague the world
9:57today we're going to have to be more broad-minded about what might work
10:02ultimately we have to recognize that ideology is the enemy of growth
10:08thank you
10:15by saying what do you say to those who react that way
10:26well I think that that's completely legitimate and I think that the me
10:29already having that discussion there's a lot of work going on around happiness
10:33and other metrics being used for measuring people's success and
10:37improvements in living standards and so I think that we should be open to what
10:41they deliver improvements in people's living standards and continue to reduce
10:44poverty around the world
10:45pleading for rehabilitating growth but the only way for that to happen without
10:50compromising the viewer to restore economic growth somehow to decouple from
10:57the underlying use of resources do so well I think that I'm more optimistic
11:01about human ability and ingenuity I think if we start to constrain ourselves
11:07using the finite scarce and depleting resources that we know today we could
11:12get negative and quite concerned about the way the world is however we've seen
11:16the club Bodrum we've seen previous claims that the world would be running
11:21out of resources and its not to argue that those things on valid but I think
11:25with ingenuity we could see desalination I think we could reinvest in energy so
11:29that we can actually get better outcomes and soon that since I'm much more
11:33optimistic about what humans can do about your proposals for growth and and
11:40and taking a different direction is that
11:42suggesting to fix capitalism with more capitalism with you know putting a price
11:48tag on good behavior as incentive or developing a bigger role for business in
11:54social issues is that what you're suggesting I'm suggesting we have to be
11:57open-minded I think it is absolutely the case that traditional models of economic
12:03growth are not working the way we would like them to and I think that's no
12:07accident that today the largest economy in the world the United States has
12:11democracy liberal democracy at its core political stance and it has free market
12:16capitalism to the extent that it is free free market capitalism as economic sense
12:21the second largest economies China it has deep prioritize democracy and
12:26they've kept them as much as completely different model these two countries
12:29completely different political models on completely different economic models and
12:33yet they have the same income inequality number
12:36measured as a Gini coefficient I think those of the debates we should have
12:39because it's not it's not clear at all what model we should be adopting and I
12:44think there needs to be much more discourse and much more humility about
12:47what we know and what we do
12:49121 is going on in Paris if you could send a tweet to all the head of state
12:56and head of delegation was there what would you say again I would be very much
13:00about being open-minded as you are aware of the issues around environmental
13:04concerns have been on the agenda for many times now in Copenhagen 72 in
13:08Stockholm and we'd keep revisiting these issues
13:12partly because there is not a fundamental agreement and practice a
13:16schism between what they developed countries believe once and what emerging
13:20market countries want emerging market countries need to continue to create
13:24economic growth so that we don't have political uncertainty in those countries
13:28developed countries recognize that they have a real important responsibility not
13:33only just managed their co2 emissions and some of the degradation that they're
13:37contributing to the world but also as transparent as an R&D and so they have
13:41to come to the table as well but in essence cannot be a situation where with
13:46me start ascribing policies to the emerging markets without developed
13:51countries themselves also taking point to swipe at what they're doing them both
13:54in demand and supply in developed markets I think about coming to thank
13:58you very much
0:00译者: Yi-Fan Yu 审译者: Gentian Pan
0:13我们创造及维持经济成长的能力
0:18是我们这个世代的关键性挑战。
0:21当然还有其他挑战--
0:23卫生保健、疾病负担、流行病、
0:26环境变迁的挑战、
0:29当然，还有激进的恐怖主义。
0:32然而，
0:34以我们实际上能解决经济成长挑战的程度而言，
0:38若要解决我刚刚说明的那些挑战，
0:40我们还有很长的路要走。
0:43更重要的是，
0:45除非直到我们解决并创造了稳定、永续的经济成长，
0:53否则我们将不能解决看起来很棘手、如今仍弥漫全球的挑战，
1:01不管是卫生保健、教育或经济发展。
1:06最基本的问题是：
1:09我们要如何
1:11在高度发达的经济体，像美国和欧洲，
1:16在他们经历金融危后， 现仍持续挣扎的状况下，
1:19还可以继续创造经济成长呢？
1:22他们持续表现得不如预期，
1:25而且还可以看出在经济成长的三大要素上出现了衰败现象：
1:30资本、劳动力、生产力。
1:33特别是，
1:35那些发达的经济体中， 持续有负债、财政赤字、
1:40劳动力质量与数量上的下降与侵蚀、
1:45同时也看到生产力停滞现象。
1:48同样的脉络下，
1:50我们要如何在
1:52拥有90% 世界人口居住的地方
1:56且70% 人口平均年龄在25 岁以下的新兴市场中
2:00持续创造经济成长？
2:02在这些国家中，
2:04至少要7% 的年增长率
2:08才能减少贫困现象
2:10以及让人均资本所得可在一个世代的时间内加倍成长。
2:14但如今，
2:16最大的新兴经济体
2:18 --人口至少5000万的国家--
2:21仍在为那7% 的「魔法数字」挣扎着。
2:25更糟的是，
2:27像印度、俄罗斯、南非、 巴西，甚至是中国这些国家，
2:31现今已低于7% 这个数字，
2:34而且，很多国家实际上正在倒退。
2:37经济成长是十分重要的。
2:40有了经济成长，
2:41国家及社会才会进入一个良性循环，
2:46包含社会经济地位的上升、 就业机会及改善生活水平。
2:51没有增长，国家会紧缩与衰退，
2:55不仅是年度经济统计数字，
2:58还包括生命的意义与生活的品质。
3:02经济成长对个人也十分的重要。
3:07一旦成长的趋势衰退，
3:08人类进步的风险、
3:10以及政局和社会不稳定的风险就会上升，
3:15而社会就会更加黑暗、动荡与渺小。
3:20环境条件很重要。
3:22新兴市场的国家，
3:23不需要像已开发国家那样的成长率。
3:29现在，我知道在场有些人会觉得我接来说的是个大胆的论点。
3:34这里有些人，
3:36会转身过去不理会并对世界周遭发生的事情
3:39不抱任何希望，
3:40且基本上，还把罪怪在经济成长上。
3:44你担心地球上人口过剩，
3:47并看着联合国最近的统计及规划，
3:50了解到地球会在公元2100 年以前
3:53来到110 亿的人口数量，
3:56你担心这对自然资源会造成什么样的冲击--
3:59可耕种的土地、 可饮用的水资源、能源、矿产。
4:04你也担心环境的恶化。
4:08你也会担心，
4:10人们在支持企业全球化的体现，
4:14怎么变得这么贪婪与腐败。
4:18但我今天要告诉各位，
4:20经济成长已经成为
4:22全世界好几百万人改变生活水平的骨干。
4:27而且更重要的是，
4:29经济成长并不是只被资本主义所主导。
4:36资本主义的定义，简单的说，
4:39就是那些生产力因素，
4:42像是，贸易、工业、资本和劳动力，
4:45掌握在私人企业而非国家手上的部分。
4:49在这里很重要的一点，我们要知道，
4:52基本上应该被指责的不是经济成长本身，
4:57而是资本主义出了什么问题。
4:59所以若考量到我们长期需要创造经济成长率的广度，
5:03我们就要用比较好的经济角度方式去追寻它。
5:09经济成长需要资本主义，
5:12但要好好地进行。
5:14正如我稍早提过的，
5:17资本主义系统的核心已被定义为以私人企业所主导。
5:23然而，即使这只是很简单的二分法。
5:27资本主义：好；非资本主义：不好。
5:31但以实务操作而言，
5:33资本主义像是个光谱。 （资本的分配有很多种方式）
5:36我们有像是中国这类的国家，
5:38实施的资本主义较倾向于「国家」主导。
5:41也有像美国这类的国家，
5:43实施的资本主义较倾向于「市场」主导。
5:45然而，我们对资本主义的批评
5:48大部分是针对像中国那种摆明不是纯市场资本主义的国家。
5:55然而，我们有一个真正的理由及真正要注意的地方就是
5:59现在要把注意力放在有较单纯架构的资本主义上面，
6:03特别是那些由美国体现出来的资本主义。
6:07这真的很重要，
6:09因为这类的资本主义，
6:11它正在孳生腐败，
6:14批判的声音不断地增加，
6:17而更糟的是，
6:18收入不公平的现象一直在持续扩大--
6:22也就是少数人享受着多数人劳动成果的问题。
6:28有两个真正的关键我们需要解决，
6:32就是，我们要如何修正资本主义，
6:34让它可以帮助创造经济成长，
6:37同时帮助解决社会弊端。
6:41为了要思考这个架构， 我们必须问我们自己，
6:45现今的资本主义是如何运作的？
6:47非常简单，
6:49资本主义是架构在个人利益最大化上--
6:55让一个谋私利的个体去追寻他或她想要的。
7:00也唯有在他们的利益获得最大化后，
7:03他们才会去认真思考，
7:05提供援助履行「社会契约」的重要性。
7:09当然，在这系统下，政府会抽税，
7:12然后再用部分的税收来提供社会福利，
7:16为的是让人民知道，政府的角色不是只有立法管理，
7:19同时也扮演了社会福利仲裁者的角色。
7:23但尽管如此，
7:24这个框架结构--
7:26这两个阶段的框架结构--
7:28是我们现在必须开始思考
7:30要如何改善资本主义模式的基础。
7:33我认为这个挑战有两方面。
7:37首先，
7:38我们可以借鉴右翼政策，
7:41去看看对我们有什么利益
7:43去思考如何改善资本主义。
7:46特别是，
7:47右倾的政策
7:49已经倾向专注于像是「条件式补助」的事情上，
7:52就是我们支付并奖励人民进行
7:55那些我们认为可以帮助经济成长的事。
7:59例如，
8:00送小孩上学，
8:02父母可以得到补助酬赏，
8:04或者让他们的孩子注射疫苗，
8:08父母可以因此得到酬赏，
8:10现在，不用去争论
8:12我们是否应该提供酬赏
8:14支付给父母亲做他们本来就应该做的事，
8:17真正重要的事实是， 这种酬赏的实行
8:20已经产生一些正向的结果，
8:23像是在墨西哥这个地方、
8:24在巴西，
8:26以及在纽约试办的计画。
8:29但在左倾政策上也有一些福利政策及显著的变革正在进行。
8:35他们的论点是： 政府应该扩大它的角色及责任，
8:39让它不再是那么狭隘地被旧思维所定义，
8:42而是要让政府扮演生产力要素的仲裁者角色，
8:46而这些论点在中国已经是司空见惯的成功模式。
8:49但同时我们也要开始辩论
8:51有关于私人企业该扮演的角色
8:54应该跳脱只顾营利的动机，
8:56而真正地更加投入社会计画。
9:00像是企业的社会责任计画，
9:03即使规模不大，
9:05也是往正确的方向在进行。
9:08当然，左倾政策也已经模糊了，
9:11政府与非政府组织及私人企业的界线。
9:16这个概念有两个很好的例子， 一个是19 世纪的美国，
9:20当时推出的基础设施计划
9:22真的就是「公办私营」的伙伴关系。
9:25更近一点，当然，
9:27网际网路的出现，已经向世界证明
9:29公众与私人是可以一起合作改善社会。
9:36我要给各位传达的基本讯息就是：
9:39我们不能藉由固执己见或坚持不必要的意识形态来
9:44继续尝试并解决世界经济成长的挑战。
9:49为了创造稳定长期的经济成长，
9:53并解决挑战与现今持续弥漫在全球的社会问题，
9:57我们必须要有更包容的心胸
10:00了解什么是可行的。
10:02最后，
10:03我们必须要认清意识形态是成长的敌人。
10:08谢谢
10:09 （掌声）
10:14 Bruno Giussani： 我想要问一些问题，丹碧莎，
10:17因为有人可以对你最后一句话做回应，
10:19就是，成长的本身也是一种意识形态，
10:21它可能就是我们这一世代最主要的意识形态，
10:24如果有人这么回应，你要怎么回答？
10:26 DM：好的，我认为这完全合理，
10:28我认为我们已经讨论过，
10:31针对幸福这件事还有很多工作要做，
10:34而且，还要其他的测量方式可以衡量人们的成功，
10:37以及生活水平的改善。
10:39所以，我认为我们应该敞开心胸，
10:41讨论做什么事可以增进人类的生活水平，
10:44并且持续减少世界上的贫穷现象。
10:46 BG：所以，基本上，你是在为「回复成长」辩护，
10:49但是唯一
10:50能带领我们走向
10:51不牺牲掉地球利益的长期发展之路，
10:55就是要让经济成长
10:56与某一种「资源的潜在利用方式」脱钩。
10:59你认为这会发生吗？
11:00 DM：恩，我认为我对人类的能力与智慧是持比较乐观的看法。
11:05我想，如果我们开始
11:06约束自己使用我们今日所知道的有限、稀有、耗尽中的资源，
11:11我们就会变得相当负面(对经济成长)
11:13而且相当担心世界会变如何。
11:15然而，我们已经看到罗马俱乐部，
11:17我们已经看到之前的声明，
11:20全世界的资源会被消耗殆尽，
11:22不用去争论这些事情不可能。
11:25但我想，我们可以用智慧去慢慢减少资源的使用。
11:27我想，我们可以再投资到能源上面，
11:29如此我们就可以得到更好的结果。
11:31所以在这概念底下，
11:33对人类可以怎么做， 我是持比较乐观的看法。
11:35 BG：有件事让我印象深刻，
11:37就是有关于妳对回复经济成长的提议，
11:40里面提到了一个不一样的方向，
11:42你好像建议用更多的资本主义去修正资本主义，
11:47像是，在「好的行为」上放上一个价格标签做为诱因，
11:50或者在社会议题上， 让企业扮演一个更大的角色，
11:54这是妳建议的吗？
11:56 DM：我是建议，我们必须要开阔心胸。
11:58我想这绝对是一个问题，
12:00就是，传统的经济成长模式
12:03已经无法达到我们要它达成的目标。
12:05我想，这并不意外，
12:07现今，世界最大的经济体，美国，
12:11有民主、
12:12自由民主，作为它的核心政治立场，
12:15它还有自由的市场资本主义--
12:17某种程度上，它是自由的--
12:19自由的市场资本主义是它的经济立场。
12:21第二大经济体是中国。
12:23它有民主非优先顺位的发展制度，
12:25它有国家资本主义， 完全是不一样的模式。
12:29这两个国家，是完全不同的政治模式，
12:31完全不一样的经济模式，
12:33当然，他们一样有收入不平等的现象
12:36是根据基尼系数所量测出来的。
12:37我想，这些就是我们应该要辩论的地方，
12:39因为我们仍不清楚，
12:42该采取哪一种模式，
12:43我想，仍需有更多不同论述，
12:46以及更多的谦卑之心来面对我们所了解及或不了解的事情。
12:49 BG：最后一个问题， 联合国气候变化大会即将在巴黎举行。
12:53如果妳可以传送一条推特讯息
12:54给在那边的所有国家领袖及代表团团长，
12:57妳会跟他们说什么？
12:59 DM：我在说明一次， 我很希望大家敞开心胸讨论。
13:02你应该知道的，
13:03围绕在关怀环境的议题上
13:05已经在议程上被提出来很多次--
13:07 72年在哥本哈根，斯德哥尔摩， 举办的联合国人类环境大会--
13:09我们持续关注这些议题，
13:11部分原因是，根本没有基本的共识协议，
13:15事实上，仍有分歧的意见，
13:16介于已开发国家的信仰与希望
13:19及新兴市场国家的希望。
13:21新兴市场国家想要持续的经济成长，
13:25这里面我们没有政治不确定性的国家。
13:28已发展国家承认，
13:30它们真的有很重大的责任，
13:33要负责二氧化碳排放量的管理、
13:35还有扛起他们对全世界所造成破坏的责任，
13:39但也包含带领全球研发的潮流。
13:40所以，他们也必须要上桌讨论。
13:43但大体上，不会有一种状况就是...
13:45我们一开始就归咎新兴市场的政策却不讨论已开发国家本身的政策，
13:51然后还猛烈抨击他们在已开发市场的供需问题上所做的一切。
13:56 BG：丹碧莎，谢谢妳来TED ， DM：非常谢谢你。
14:01 （掌声）
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