STRATFOR2016.3.4---2016年3月預覽

STRATFOR2016.3.4---2016年3月預覽
發佈日期：2016年3月4日
Stratfor Managing Editor Cole Altom discusses Chinese manufacturing, India's economy and the challenges faced by sovereign wealth funds.
Stratfor的总编辑科尔Altom探讨中国制造业，印度的经济和所面临的主权财富基金所面临的挑战。

0:05welcome to our first look at China Chinese manufacturing is in for a rude 0:10awakening gone are the days when firms could turn out product at a loss coming 0:14on loans and subsidies from Beijing to stay afloat with growth slowing China 0:19said on cutting costs and most inefficient industries and still at the 0:22top of the list as we've noted in previous compass issues Chinese steel 0:26demand has fallen but production hasn't in 2015 China produced eight hundred 0:30million metric tons of steel 0:32more than the rest of the world combined and training producers Beijing 0:35centralize and consolidate steel industry which could chip away a lot of 0:39weight capacity the consolidation will come at a high price 0:43thousands of people out of work particularly in some northern provinces 0:46whose economies rely heavily on steel production and likely send themselves in 0:49search of jobs that could also stunned China's economic growth in deprived 0:53aging of these tax revenue for the markets for competitors hoping that the 0:57new national cut China's steel production and raise global prices will

1:01be disappointed 1:02next return to India India's economic growth has stalled the promise of 1:06prosperity that brought Prime Minister Narendra Modi to power in a landslide 1:09victory has been broken 1:11of course would be unfair to blame motive for all of India's feelings this 1:15is because India still beset by structural problems beyond his control 1:18see most economies follow a predictable pattern as they develop from agrarian 1:21too low and manufacturing to high-end manufacturing eventually to service 1:25India's economy inverted this process resulted in nearly seven decades after 1:30the country achieved independence fifty percent of India's workforce remains 1:33employed an agricultural sector that accounts for just 18 percent of GDP to 1:38boost manufacturing as part of this make an India campaign and interior would 1:42create a hundred million jobs and make manufacturing account for as much as 25 1:45percent of GDP and despite some modest success the transformation to a motorist 1:50buyers actually require farming the land labor and tax laws that currently hinder 1:54manufacturing a tall order in a vast and fractures federalist system that 1:58represents a billion citizens divided by language religion ethnicity and cast so

2:03until he does this economic growth will probably remain below eight percent last 2:07week the Middle East for sovereign wealth funds and oil producing countries 2:10are enormous established separately from the country's central banks with a 2:13simple mehndi to save excess oil 2:15and generate long-term returns these funds have done just that roughly three 2:20trillion dollars of the 7.3 trillion dollars and such funds are sourced from 2:23oil money from the Gulf Cooperation Council below oil prices appear to have 2:27forced these funds to tighten their investment strategy and asset managers 2:31worldwide are reeling from sovereign wealth fund withdrawals could reach four 2:35hundred billion dollars in 2016 withdrawals are troubling news for asset 2:40managers but troops loyal prices of only accelerated a process that was already 2:44well underway sovereign wealth funds are choosing investments that the fill 2:47domestic needs and decrees that is developing renewable energy healthcare 2:51and infrastructure projects as well as global real estate investments with 2:55dependable returns in Europe Russia China and the United States and the GCC 2:59states also often invest heavily in developed market equities one fact

3:03remains not all GCC sovereign wealth funds for their new investors same way 3:08treatment exactly how they differ check out our March issue of compass which 3:11publishes March 7th

0:05欢迎我们的中国制造中国第一次看是在一个粗鲁 0:10觉醒了的日子，公司可以在亏损转出产品来 0:14从北京贷款和补贴与增长放缓中国维持下去 0:19表示，在削减成本和最没有效率的行业，仍然 0:22在列表的顶部，因为我们在以前的罗盘问题，中国钢铁已经指出 0:26需求下降，但产量并没有在2015年中国生产八百 0:30万吨钢材 0:32超过世界其他国家联合训练的生产者北京 0:35集中化和整合钢铁行业可能蚕食了不少 0:39承重能力整合会以高价 0:43成千上万的人失去工作特别是在一些北方省份 0:46其经济在很大程度上依赖于钢铁生产和发送可能在自己 0:49找工作也能愕然中国经济的增长在剥夺 0:53这些税收老龄化对市场的竞争对手希望的 0:57新的国家削减中国的钢铁生产和提高全球价格将

1:01失望 1:02下一回印度印度的经济增长已经停滞的承诺 1:06在山体滑坡带来的总理莫迪权力繁荣 1:09胜利已被打破 1:11当然是不公平的为所有印度的感情指责这个动机 1:15是因为印度仍然超出了他的控制结构性问题的困扰 1:18看到大多数经济体遵循一个可预测的模式，因为他们从农业发展 1:21太低，制造业向高端制造业的最终服务 1:25印度的经济反转这个过程后，导致将近七十年 1:30该国获得独立印度的劳动力遗体的百分之五十 1:33雇用的农业部门占国内生产总值的18％ 1:38提高制造为这部分做出印度竞选和内饰会 1:42打造百年万个就业岗位，使制造业占了25 1:45 GDP的改造，尽管一些适度的成功百分之一司机 1:50购房者实际上要求养殖，目前阻碍土地劳动法和税法 1:54在一个巨大的和骨折联邦制制造一个高大的顺序 1:58代表十亿人民通过语言宗教种族分裂，使投

2:03直到他这样做的经济增长可能会继续低于百分之八最后 2:07本周中东的主权财富基金和石油生产国 2:10是巨大分别从国家的央行有成立 2:13简单莫海蒂节省多余的油 2:15并产生长期回报这些基金刚刚做了大致有三种 2:20万亿美元的7.3万亿美元，这些资金是从来源 2:23来自海湾合作委员会石油美元以下的油价似乎有 2:27迫使这些资金收紧他们的投资策略和资产管理公司 2:31全球从主权财富基金提款缫丝可以达到400 2:35一百个十亿美元，2016年提款困扰资产新闻 2:40管理者，但部队只忠于价格加速这一过程已经 2:44如火如荼的主权财富基金正在选择投资，填充 2:47国内需求和法令正在开发可再生能源的医疗保健 2:51和基础设施项目，以及与全球房地产投资 2:55欧洲俄罗斯中国和美国与海合会可靠的回报 2:59国家也经常在发达市场股票大量投资一个事实

3:03仍然不是所有的GCC主权财富基金对他们新的投资方式相同 3:08治疗他们究竟是如何的不同检查罗盘我们的三月号这 3:11发布3月7日