Kirk Citron 談真正不過時的新聞

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講者：Kirk Citron
2010年2月演講，2010年4月在TED上線
MyOOPS開放式課程
翻譯：洪曉慧
編輯：劉契良
簡繁轉換：陳盈
後製：洪曉慧
字幕影片後制：謝旻均
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Kirk Citron 談真正不過時的新聞
我們被新聞淹沒了，單單只是路透社，一年就發佈了350萬則新聞故事，這只不過是新聞來源之一而已。
我的問題是：這些新聞到底有多少確實會有長期影響呢？這就是「長遠新聞」背後的意義。這是由今日永存基金會提出的一個專案，它是由TED成員，包括Kevin Kelly 和 Stewart Brand建立的。我們試圖找出那些即使在50、100、或是一萬年後，仍然會有深遠影響的新聞故事。許多新聞經過上述條件過濾後，只有被閒置一旁的價值。
如果你找出去年美聯社的頭條，這則在10年後還要緊嗎？或是這則？或是這則？真的還要緊嗎？這個在50或100年後還要緊嗎？Okay，這就有點酷了。（笑聲）但去年的頭條是經濟；我敢打賭，遲早這個特殊的經濟不景氣現象將會成為舊聞。
那麼，什麼樣的故事可能對未來造成影響？好，讓我們來看看科學。某天，迷你機器人將能夠在我們血液裡穿梭以修復組織；如果你是老鼠的話，這已成真。幾則最新的報導－納米蜂用真蜂毒液殺死腫瘤；人們將基因植入人腦；人們造了可在人體內爬行機器人。
資源方面呢？該怎麼餵飽90億人？現在要餵飽60億人的肚子都成問題。我們才聽說有超過10億人處於饑餓中；若沒有基因改造作物，英國人就會餓肚皮了。幸運的是，比爾‧蓋茨對Agresearch 投資了10億美元。
國際政治方面呢？如果讓中國設定議程，世界會大不相同；而這是很有可能的事。他們已經超越美國，成為世界上最大的汽車市場；他們超越德國，成為最大的出口國；他們開始在兒童身上做DNA測試，以幫助他們選擇將來事業。我們正尋找各種方法，打破我們所知的各種限制。看看這些最近的發現－一種阿根廷蟻群已蔓延到除了南極洲以外的每一個大陸；另有自我導向機器人科學家發現新突破。很快的，科學或許不再需要我們；生活也不再需要我們。一種微生物沉睡12萬年之後復活；似乎無論我們存在與否，生命都會繼續。
但我選擇的去年長遠新聞頭條是這個－月球上發現了水。這使得在月球上建立殖民地簡單多了；如果NASA不這麼做，也許中國會；或在座的某人會簽下一張巨額支票。
我的觀點是：長遠來看，某些新聞故事確實比其他一些新聞更重要。
（掌聲）。
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以下為系統擷取之英文原文
About this talk
How many of today's headlines will matter in 100 years? 1000? Kirk Citron's "Long News" project collects stories that not only matter today, but will resonate for decades -- even centuries -- to come. At TED2010, he highlights recent headlines with the potential to shape our future.

About Kirk Citron

Kirk Citron began his career as a fast-rising advertising executive, but now writes and provides media consultation for select non-profits. Full bio and more links

Transcript

We are drowning in news. Reuters alone puts out three-and-a-half million news stories a year. That's just one source.

My question is: How many of those stories are actually going to matter in the long run? That's the idea behind The Long News. It's a project by The Long Now Foundation, which was founded by TEDsters including Kevin Kelly and Stewart Brand. And what we're looking for is news stories that might still matter 50 or 100 or 10,000 years from now. I mean look at the news through that filter, a lot falls by the wayside.

If you take the top stories from the A.P. this last year: Is this going to matter in a decade? Or this? Or this? Really? Is this going to matter in 50 or 100 years? Okay, that was kind of cool. (Laughter) But the top story of this past year was the economy. And I'm just betting that, sooner or later, this particular recession is going to be old news.

So, what kind of stories might make a difference for the future? Well, let's take science. Someday, little robots will go through our bloodstreams fixing things. That someday is already here if you're a mouse. Some recent stories: Nanobees zap tumors with real bee venom. They're sending genes into the brain. A robot they built that can crawl through the human body.

What about resources? How are we going to feed nine billion people? We're having trouble feeding six billion today. As we heard yesterday, there's over a billion people hungry. Britain will starve without genetically modified crops. Bill Gates, fortunately, has bet a billion on ag research.

What about global politics? The world's going to be very different when and if China sets the agenda, and they may. They've overtaken the U.S. as the world's biggest car market. They've overtaken Germany as the largest exporter. And they've started doing DNA tests on kids to choose their careers.

We're finding all kinds of ways to push back the limits of what we know. Some recent discoveries: There's an ant colony from Argentina that has now spread to every continent but Antarctica. There's a self-directed robot scientist that's made a discovery. Soon, science may no longer need us. And life may no longer need us either. A microbe wakes up after 120,000 years. It seems that with or without us life will go on.
But my pick for the top Long News story of this past year was this one, water found on the moon. Makes it a lot easier to put a colony up there. And if NASA doesn't do it, China might, or somebody in this room might write a big check.
My point is this: In the long run, some news stories are more important than others. (Applause)
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