Nandan Nilekani :2050印度的未来

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http://dotsub.com/view/d2386b35-7d9b-40c1-a0a9-3e663252e550
Nandan Nilekani :谈印度的未来
下面我来介绍一下印度 以及印度人们观念的演变 我觉得这是个很有意思的角度 因为在每个社会中，尤其是开放的民主社会里 只有观念树立之后，现实才能得以改变 观念逐渐演变成意识形态 然后出台相应政策，并最终付诸实践
1930年，美国经历大萧条时期 产生了有关国家社会安全问题的各种观点 并促进了罗斯福执政期间其他事件的发生 20世纪80年代的里根革命，放松了政府管制 如今，全球经济危机的爆发 引发了新规则的产生 重新探讨国家应该如何执政 所以说，观念改变国家
我们再来看印度 四种观念对印度 产生着巨大的影响 第一种，在我看来 是被我称为“已发生”的观念 这些观念产生的影响 造就了今天的印度 第二种观念，我把它们称为“进行中”的观念 这些观念已经被人们接受 但尚未付诸实践 第三种观念，我把它们称为 “探讨中”的观念 我们对这些观念进行争论 争论在现实中是否应当实施这些观念 第四种观念，也是我认为最重要的观念 是“我们有必要预先考虑到”的观念 因为作为一个发展中国家 我们看着世界其他国家正在面临的问题 由此可以事先预见到 问题将产生的后果 并调整工作方式来避免这些问题
对印度来说，我认为有六种观念 造就了今天的印度 第一个是对“人民”这一概念的理解 在六七十年代 “人民”对我们来说是一种压力 是一种负担 如今，“人民”对我们来说是一种资本 “人民”对我们来说是一种人力资源 我相信，这种心态上的转变 这种“人民”由负担 向人力资源的转变 可以说是印度人民思想上最根本的改变 人力资源这一概念的转变 体现在现实生活中 就是印度正在享有的人口红利 随着医疗体系的完善 婴儿死亡率的下降 生育率开始降低。印度所处的正是这一阶段 印度会有很多 高人口红利的年轻人 出现在接下来的三十年里 这种人口红利的独特之处在于 印度将成为世界上唯一一个 拥有人口红利的国家 也就是说，印度将成为全球老龄化的趋势下唯一一个年轻国家 这是非常重要的一点。 另外 我们剖析印度人口红利的特点 就会发现存在着两个人口曲线 一个在印度南部和西部 2015年将达到最高峰 因为该地区的生育率 已与西欧国家基本持平 另外一个在印度北部 它将成为未来人口红利的主体 但这些人口红利 就像人力资源的投资一样 只有当人们接受良好教育 身体健康，基础设施完善 当他们上班道路畅通，夜晚学习灯火通明时 只有在这些情况下，人们才能够受惠 才能够从人口红利中受益 换句话说，如果我们不对这些人口红利进行投入 同样的人口红利 有可能就变成人口祸患了 因此，印度现在正处在关键的时候 假如不是推动促进其人口红利 就会走上人口祸患的道路
第二点 印度改变了 对于企业家的定义 印度刚独立时 企业家被看作是 一群剥削人民的败类 但如今，60年后，随着创业者的涌现 企业家已成为现实中的楷模 对社会做着巨大贡献 这一改变促进了 整个经济体系的繁荣
我认为改变印度的第三个观念 是我们对英语语言所持态度的改变 之前 英语被认为是帝国主义者的语言 但如今 全球化的背景下 外包业务增加 英语语言帮助人们实现抱负 成为了大家蜂拥学习的一技之长 英语也逐渐转变成 我们巨大的战略性资本
还有科技 40年前，电脑给我们的印象是 令人畏惧 充满威胁的 人们会因此而失去工作 今天 我们所在的国家 每月销售八百万手机 其中百分之九十 是预付费手机 因为人们没有信用记录 预付费手机中的百分之四十 每次充值少于20美分 科技已经被大规模接受 完全自由化，并被广泛应用 因此 一开始 被视作人类威胁并禁止使用的科技 逐渐赢得了人们的认可 20年前 出台过一项有关银行计算机化的报告 人们没有把这份报告命名为 关于电脑的报告 他们把电脑称为过账机 他们不想让工会认为那是电脑 后来他们想要使用更高级更强大的电脑时 他们称其为高级过账机 之后 我们经历了很多 电话成为了一种赋权的工具 并真正改变了印度人们看待科技的态度
另一方面 现在的印度人民前所未有地 适应着全球化的发展 有200多年的时间 印度人民生活在 东印度公司和帝国主义规则下 他们对全球化的正常反应 就是认为那是一种帝国主义 但现在 很多印度公司往国外发展 印度人们走出来 在世界各地工作 他们增添了很多自信 并且意识到 他们可以参与到全球化的进程中 我们在人口上有优势 因为我们是世界老龄化趋势下唯一的年轻国家 这使全球化对印度人民来说有着更大的吸引力
最后一点 印度正在经历 民主的不断深化 当60年前 民主来到印度时 那只是一小部分人的观点 一小部分想把民主带进印度的人 因为他们想为印度带来不一样的观点 比如投票，议员，宪法等先进思想 但现在 民主已经成为了从下向上的进程 每个人都意识到 拥有言论权的好处 和开放社会的优势 民主也就是这样深入人心的
我认为这六个观念 人力资源概念的产生 印度企业家的发展 英语语言成为人们的一技之长 科技成为一种赋权的手段 全球化开始发挥积极作用 以及民主的不断深化--这些都促成了 印度今天的进步 今天这史无前例的快速发展
话虽如此 接下来我们来看“进行中”的观念 这些观念在社会中已经没有异议 但却无法得以实施 有四种这样的观念 一是教育问题 由于某些原因，不管什么样的原因，我们缺少资金 缺少优先重点，因为宗教有着更悠久的文化影响 初等教育没有得到应有的重视 但我觉得现在 到了十分关键的时刻 我们很遗憾地看到 政府的公立学校不能正常运行 当下，孩子们只能去私立学校 即使在印度的贫民窟 超过一半的城市孩子都去私立学校 所以学校正常运行是一个不小的挑战 即便如此，每个人都极其希望 穷人们也不例外，希望他们的孩子接受教育 所以我认为 初等教育的观念 已经深入人心 但还未得以实施
类似地，基础设施建设也是如此 很长一段时间以来，基础设施建设都不予优先考虑 去过印度的人们都有所体会 这和中国的情况是完全不同的 但现在 基础设施建设终于成为了 人们达成一致并希望实施的观念 这在官方声明中得以体现 20年前的政治口号是"Roti,kapra,makan" 意思是“食物，衣服和住所” 现在的政治口号是"Bijli,sarak,paani" 意思是“电力，水利和公路” 这就是思想上的转变 基础设施建设得到了肯定 所以我相信 这个观念已经得到了大家的认同 只是还没有落实而已
第三件事是城市 因为甘地重视农村 而英国殖民者从城市统治 因此尼赫鲁并没有把新德里当作典型的印度城市 长久以来 我们忽视城市建设 大家从现实生活中可以看出 但现在 经历了经济改革 和经济增长 城市拉动 经济增长 城市提高创造力 城市促进创新精神 这些理论最终被人们所接受 我觉得大家现在可以看到我们城市建设的趋势 这同样也是 已被大家接受但还未实现的观念
最后一个概念 印度是一个单一的市场 因为当你不把印度当作一个市场的时候 你并不关心它是否单一 因为这并无所谓 那你就面临着这样一个局面 每个州有自己的产品市场 每个省有自己的农业市场 现在的政策 税收 基础设施建设及其他政策 正在逐步将印度作为一个单一市场 所以国家内部现在也有着一个全球化的趋势 这和国家外部的全球化同等重要 这四个因素 初等教育 基础设施建设，城市化和单一市场 在我看来 是印度 已经接受 但未实现的观念
接下来就是探讨中的观念 我们还为此进行争论的观念 所进行的争论常常陷入僵局 这些观念都有哪些呢？第一，我认为，是我们的意识形态 由于印度种姓制度这一历史背景 也由于众多印度人民 一直被冷落 很多政治工作都是为了确保 落实这一点 招致了不少异议和其他方法 这和我们贴补人民的方式也有关 也和我们两边的观点有关 印度很多问题都是关于意识形态的 关于种姓制度和其他事情 这项政策逐渐陷入僵局 这是需要解决问题之一
第二点是我们的劳工政策 现政策下 企业家很难 在公司创造标准化职位 因此 93%的印度劳工 都是处于无组织的状态 他们没有救济金 没有社会福利 没有退休金 没有医疗保健 什么都没有 这种现状必须改变 因为如果不能给人民 提供规范的劳动制度 最终将有大批人们受到剥削 因此我们需要建立一套崭新的劳动法 摆脱今天劳动法的繁复 同时发布政策将更多的人们带入正规的行业 并为上百万需要工作的人创造就业机会
第三件事是我们的高等教育 印度的高等教育完全受到管制 个人很难创办大学 国外的大学也很难来到印度 结果我们的高等教育 很自然地不能满足印度的需要 由此带来的很多问题值得我们关注
但我相信 最重要的 是我们需要预见的观念 印度可以借鉴发生在西方的事 发生在其他地方的事 并反思自己需要作出的努力 首先 我们十分幸运 现在的科技 更加发达 超过了其他国家发展时的科技水平 所以我们可以利用科技来执政 我们可以利用科技直接从中获益 我们可以利用科技增加透明度 及其他好处
第二件事 是医疗保健 印度人们有些严重的 健康问题 比如心脏病晚期 糖尿病晚期 肥胖症晚期 所以我们不能简单地把一系列贫穷时期的疾病 替换成一系列富足时期的疾病 因此我们要重新审视我们看待医疗系统的方式 我们需要一个战略 这样我们才不至于走另一个极端
同样地 现在西方社会里 我们可以看到社会保障带来的问题 社会福利的花费 医疗保险的花费 医疗辅助计划的花费 因此对于一个年轻国家来说 有机会从头建立一个现代退休金体系 这样在年老的时候 就不会出现津贴问题
另外 印度负担不起 环境污染的后果 因为环境和发展是密不可分的 给大家一个粗略的概念 世界每年消耗稳定在 200亿吨 对于9亿人口来说 我们平均二氧化碳排放量每年达两吨 印度已经达到每年两吨 但如果印度以8%的速度增长 2050年人均年收入将是现在的16倍 所以我们说 收入增长16倍而二氧化碳排放不增长 这样我们可以从根本上 改变对环境的态度 对能源的态度 以及我们创造国家发展的崭新范例
为什么这对大家很重要呢？ 为什么发生在一万英里以外的事情对大家很重要呢？ 第一，它重要是因为 它代表着超过十万人民 十万人民 也就是世界总人口的六分之一 它重要是因为这是民主的体现 以此证明 增长和民主并不矛盾也是很重要的 我们可以拥有民主 可以拥有开放的社会 我们也可以拥有增长 它的重要性也在于如果这些问题得以解决 世界的贫困问题也将迎刃而解 它的重要性还体现在 这也是解决世界环境问题的关键点
如果我们真的想有所作为 我们要真正设定二氧化碳排放的最高限度 我们要真正降低能源的使用 印度这样的国家需要解决此类问题 如果我们观察 西方200年来的发展 其平均增长约为2% 这里我们讨论的 却是增长率为8%至9%的国家 这是有着很大区别的 当印度以3% 3.5%的速度增长 人口以2%速度增长时 其人均收入每45年翻一番 当经济增长率上升到8% 人口增长率下降到1.5% 人均收入每9年翻一番 换言之 我们的确在加速进行着整个过程 十亿人口逐步走上幸福的道路 我们必须有一个清晰的策略 这对印度极为重要 对世界也极为重要 因为 我认为在座的你们 也应该像我一样 关注这个问题
非常感谢 （掌声）


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Nandan Nilekani's ideas for India's future
Let me talk about India through the evolution of ideas. Now I believe this is an interesting way of looking at it because in every society, especially an open democratic society, it's only when ideas take root that things change. Slowly ideas lead to ideology, lead to policies that lead to actions.

In 1930 this country went through a Great Depression, which led to all the ideas of the state and social security, and all the other things that happened in Roosevelt's time. In the 1980s we had the Reagan revolution, which lead to deregulation. And today, after the global economic crisis, there was a whole new set of rules about how the state should intervene. So ideas change states.

And I looked at India and said, really there are four kinds of ideas which really make an impact on India. The first, to my mind, is what I call as the "ideas that have arrived." These ideas have brought together something which has made India happen the way it is today. The second set of ideas I call "ideas in progress." Those are ideas which have been accepted but not implemented yet. The third set of ideas are what I call as "ideas that we argue about" -- ideas where we have a fight, an ideological battle about how to do things. And the fourth thing, which I believe is most important, "ideas that we need to anticipate." Because when you are a developing country in the world where you can see the problems that other countries are having, you can actually anticipate what that did and do things very differently.

Now in India's case I believe there are six ideas which are responsible for where it has come today. The first is really the notion of people. In the '60s and '70s we thought of people as a burden. We thought of people as a liability. Today we talk of people as an asset. We talk of people as human capital. And I believe that this change in the mindset of looking at people as something of a burden, to human capital, has been one of the fundamental changes in the Indian mindset. And this change in thinking of human capital is linked to the fact that India is going through a demographic dividend. As healthcare improves, as infant mortality goes down, fertility rates start dropping. And India is experiencing that. India is going to have a lot of young people with a demographic dividend for the next 30 years. What is unique about this demographic dividend is that India will be the only country in the world to have this demographic dividend. In other words, it will be the only young country in an aging world. And this is very important. At the same time if you peel away the demographic dividend in India there are actually two demographic curves. One is in the south and in the west of India, which is already going to be fully expensed by 2015 because in that part of the country, the fertility rate is almost equal to that of a West-European country. Then there is the whole northern India, which is going to be the bulk of the future demographic dividend. But a demographic dividend is only as good as the investment in your human capital. Only if the people have education, they have good health, they have infrastructure, they have roads to go to work, they have lights to study at night -- only in those cases can you really get the benefit of a demographic dividend. In other words, if you don't really invest in the human capital, the same demographic dividend can be a demographic disaster. Therefore India is at a critical point where either it can leverage its demographic dividend or it can lead to a demographic disaster.

The second thing in India has been the change in the role of entrepreneurs. When India got independence entrepreneurs were seen as a bad lot, as people who would exploit. But today, after 60 years, because of the rise of entrepreneurship, entrepreneurs have become role models. And they are contributing hugely to the society. This exchange has contributed to the vitality and the whole economy.

The third big thing I believe that has changed India is our attitude towards the English language. English language was seen as a language of the imperialists. But today with globalization, with outsourcing, English has become a language of aspiration. This has made it something that everybody wants to learn. And the fact that we have English is now becoming a huge strategic asset.

The next thing is technology. 40 years back, computers were seen as something which was forbidding, something which was intimidating, something that reduced jobs. Today we live in a country which sells eight million mobile phones a month, of which 90 percent of those mobile phones are prepaid phones because people don't have credit history. 40 percent of those prepaid phones are recharged at less than 20 cents at each recharge. That is the scale at which technology has liberated and made it accessible. And therefore technology has gone from being seen as something forbidding and intimidating to something that is empowering. 20 years back, when there was a report on bank computerization, they didn't name the report as a report on computers. They call them as ledger posting machines. They didn't want the unions to believe that they were actually computers. And when they wanted to have more advanced, more powerful computers they called them advanced ledger posting machines. So we have come a long way from those days where the telephone has become an instrument of empowerment and really has changed the way Indians think of technology.

And then I think the other point is that Indians today are far more comfortable with globalization. Again, after having lived for more than 200 years under the East India Company and under imperial rule, Indians had a very natural reaction towards globalization believing it was a form of imperialism. But today as Indian companies go abroad as Indians come and work all over the world, Indians have gained a lot more confidence and have realized that globalization is something they can participate in. And the fact that the demographics are in our favor, because we are the only young country in an aging world, makes globalization all the more attractive to Indians.

And finally, India has had the deepening of its democracy. When democracy came to India 60 years back it was an elite concept. It was a bunch of people who wanted to bring in democracy because they wanted to bring in the idea of universal voting and parliament and constitution and so forth. But today democracy has become a bottom-up process where everybody has realized the benefits of having a voice, the benefits of being in an open society. And therefore democracy has become embedded.

I believe these six factors -- the rise of the notion of population as human capital, the rise of Indian entrepreneurs, the rise of English as a language of aspiration, technology as something empowering, globalization as a positive factor, and the deepening of democracy -- has contributed to why India is today growing at rates it has never seen before.

But having said that, then we come to what I call as ideas in progress. Those are the ideas where there is no argument in a society, but you are not able to implement those things. And really there are four things here. One is the question of education. For some reason, whatever reason, lack of money, lack of priorities, because of religion having an older culture primary education was never given the focus it required. But now I believe it's reached a point where it has become very important. Unfortunately the government schools don't function, so children are going to private schools today. Even in the slums of India more than 50 percent of urban kids are going into private schools. So there is a big challenge in getting the schools to work. But having said that, there is an enormous desire among everybody, including the poor, to educate their children. So I believe primary education is an idea which is arrived but not yet implemented.

Similarly, infrastructure. For a long time, infrastructure was not a priority. Those of you who have been to India have seen that. It's certainly not like China. But today I believe finally infrastructure is something which is agreed upon and which people want to implement. It is reflected in the political statements. 20 years back the political slogan was, "Roti, kapra, makan," which meant, "Food, clothing and shelter." And today's political slogan is, "Bijli, sarak, paani," which means "Electricity, water and roads." And that is a change in the mindset where infrastructure is now accepted. So I do believe this is an idea which has arrived but simply not implemented.

The third thing is again cities -- it's because Gandhi believed in villages and because the British ruled from the cities. Therefore Nehru thought of New Delhi as an un-Indian city. For a long time we have neglected our cities. And that is reflected in the kinds of situations that you see. But today finally after economic reforms, and economic growth, I think the notion that cities are engines of economic growth, cities are engines of creativity, cities are engines of innovation, have finally been accepted. And I think now you're seeing the move towards improving our cities. Again, an idea which is arrived but not yet implemented.

The final thing is the notion of India as a single market because when you didn't think of India as a market, you didn't really bother about a single market because it didn't really matter. And therefore you had a situation where every state had its own market for products. Every province had its own market for agriculture. Increasingly now the policies of taxation and infrastructure and all that, are moving towards creating India as a single market. So there is a form of internal globalization which is happening, which is as important as external globalization. These four factors I believe, the ones of primary education, infrastructure, urbanization, and single market, in my view are ideas in India which have been accepted but not implemented.

Then we have what I believe are the ideas in conflict. The ideas that we argue about. These are the arguments we have which cause gridlock. What are those ideas? One is, I think, our ideological issues. Because of the historical Indian background, in the caste system, and because of the fact that there have been many people who have been left out in the cold, a lot of the politics is about how to make sure that we'll address that. And it leads to reservations and other techniques. It's also related to the way that we subsidize our people, and all the left and right arguments that we have. A lot of the Indian problems are related to the ideology of caste and other things. This policy is causing gridlock. This is one of the factors which needs to be resolved.

The second one is the labor policies that we have, which make it so difficult for entrepreneurs to create standardized jobs in companies, that 93 percent of Indian labor is in the unorganized sector. They have no benefits. They don't have social security. They don't have pension, they don't have healthcare, none of those things. This needs to be fixed because unless you can bring these people into the formal workforce, you will end up creating a whole lot of people who are completely disenfranchised. Therefore we need to create a new set of labor laws, which are not as onerous as they are today. At the same time give a policy for a lot more people to be in the formal sector, and create the jobs for the millions of people that we need to create jobs for.

The third thing is our higher education. Indian higher education is completely regulated. It's very difficult to start a private university. It's very difficult for a foreign university to come to India. As a result of that our higher education is simply not keeping pace with India's demands. That is leading to a lot of problems which we need to address.

But most important I believe are the ideas we need to anticipate. Here India can look at what is happening in the west and elsewhere, and look at what needs to be done. The first thing is, we're very fortunate that technology is at a point where it is much more advanced than when other countries had the development. So we can use the technology for governance. We can use the technology for direct benefits. We can use technology for transparency, and many other things.

The second thing is, the health issue. India has equally horrible health problems of the higher state of cardiac issue, the higher state of diabetes, the higher state of obesity. So there is no point in replacing a set of poor country diseases with a set of rich country diseases. Therefore we're to rethink the whole way we look at health. We really need to put in place a strategy so that we don't go to the other extreme of health.

Similarly today in the west you're seeing the problem of entitlement -- the cost of social security, the cost of medicare, the cost of medicaid. Therefore when you are a young country, again you have a chance to put in place a modern pension system. So that you don't create entitlement problems as you grow old.

And then again, India does not have the luxury of making its environment dirty because it has to marry environment and development. Just to give an idea, the world has to stabilize at something like 20 gigatons per year. On a population of nine billion our average carbon emission will have to be about two tons per year. India is already at two tons per year. But if India grows at something like eight percent, income per year per person will go to 16 times by 2050. So we're saying, income growing at 16 times and no growth in carbon. Therefore we will fundamentally rethink the way we look at the environment, the way we look at energy, the way we create whole new paradigms of development.

Now why does this matter to you? Why does what's happening 10 thousand miles away matter to all of you? Number one, this matters because this represents more than a billion people. A billion people, 1/6th of the world population. It matters because this is a democracy. And it is important to prove that growth and democracy are not incompatible, that you can have a democracy, that you can have an open society, and you can have growth. It's important because if you solve these problems you can solve the problems of poverty in the world. It's important because you need it to solve the world's environment problems.

If we really want to come to a point, we really want to put a cap on our carbon emission. We want to really lower the use of energy. It has to be solved in countries like India. You know if you look at the development in the west over 200 years, the average growth may have been about two percent. Here we are talking about countries growing at eight to nine percent. And that makes a huge difference. When India was growing at about three, 3.5 percent and the population was growing at two percent, its per capita income was doubling every 45 years. When the economic growth goes to eight percent and population growth drops to 1.5 percent, then per capita income is doubling every nine years. In other words you're certainly fast forwarding this whole process of a billion people going to prosperity. And you must have a clear strategy, which is important for India and important for the world. That is why I think all of you should be equally concerned with it, as I am. Thank you very much. (Applause)