arirangnews2013.6.3---安倍经济学影响韩国及全球经济

arirangnews2013.6.3---安倍经济学影响韩国及全球经济
아베노믹스: 여파와 앞으로의 전망은?
Abe-nomics .
Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's aggressive monetary policies -- mainly aimed at boosting its economy through massive quantitative easing.
But Tokyo's attempts -- including the massive issuance of sovereign bonds. is not only affecting the foreign exchange market with the depreciating yen.
It's also shadowing Korea's financial markets by dragging down Seoul's outbound shipments.
Joining us now is Arirang News' Song Ji-sun who'll tell us more about what we can expect in the coming months. and what is expected if Abenomics ends up being a failure, or a success.
So Ji-sun,. let us begin by talking about what Abenomics is.
Good evening.
It's been only six months since the so-called Abenomics policy kicked in December last year -- after Japanese Prime Minister Abe Shinzo took office.
He set out a main goal of reviving the stagnant Japanese economy. and the policy can be broken down into three parts.
Kicking off the Abenomics paradigm. was massive quantitative easing that depreciated the Japanese yen. and gave the benchmark stock exchange Nikkei a boost in the first couple of months.
Tokyo also plans to expand its government expenditure. and in the long term -- conduct government reforms -- mainly focused on deregulation, taxation among others.
The restructuring plan is scheduled to be released before the end of this month.
But the downside of its massive bond issuance has already begun to surface.
This is why Japan's quantitative easing could pose such a high risk.
Japan procures more than half of its government budget through sovereign bonds. and the rest through tax revenues.
"More than 95-percent of Japan's national bonds are owned by local investors, and it's easy for Tokyo to raise money through bonds.
But eventually, it will be tough for Tokyo to pay back the principal. with the long-term bond interest rate rising to over 1-percent these days.
Note that Japan's benchmark interest rate hovers slightly above the 0-percent mark.
When bond-buyers sell it back, the Japanese bond will lose its attractiveness, putting the government in a difficult spot."
And Korea has been hit by this Abenomics policy in its exports.
Korea's major exporting companies have seen continuous drops in their sales overseas. while Japanese exporters saw a dramatic rise since the third quarter last year -- when the yen started to shed its value.
For Korea, outbound shipments -- not just to Tokyo, but to other destinations around the world have also seen a cut back in orders. as many of Korea's flagship export items are in direct competition with Japanese counterparts.
"The low-yen, higher won trend kicked in last November, and it usually takes 7 to 8 months for that to be reflected to export shipments.
Korea's major exporting companies will continue to suffer from the weak yen. in the second half -- and in the long run, as well."
But Ji-sun, how do we know if Abenomics is working?
How do you define the success or failure of this policy?
To answer your question, it's not clear cut.
If we define success as Tokyo reviving its economy as planned. it may not be a good signal for Korea -- as Japanese exporters will regain competitiveness and compete head on with Korean exporters in the global market.
But on a more of a macro-point of view, the global economy will be given a boost -- given that the Japanese economy is the third largest in the world.
If Abenomics fails to achieve its goals. the market consensus is that Tokyo will slump back into a period of no growth very much like the decades of depression that continued before Abenomics took effect.
This of course means years of deflation will return. and the market will lose its credit on the Japanese government with higher default risks.
Experts say the key to success -- will be the reform and restructuring of the government . and how well Tokyo executes it.
And what are sentiments from other countries regarding this policy . are they just as concerned some in Korea are?
Last Friday, the International Monetary Fund warned there are "considerable downside risks" if Tokyo doesn't slash back its huge national debt.
The IMF praised Abe and the Bank of Japan for being on the right track in their bid to reverse years of falling prices. but noted that Tokyo must deliver on its pledges for more reforms.
ABE经济学。日本首相安倍晋三的积极的货币政策的-主要是针对“CC” 通过大规模的量化宽松政策刺激经济，但东京的尝试-包括大量的发行主权债券。
是不仅影响外汇市场日元贬值。它也遮蔽韩国的金融市场拖累首尔的出境货量。现在加入我们是阿里郎新闻“宋纪太阳谁就会告诉我们更多关于什么，我们可以期待在未来几个月内。和期望是什么，如果Abenomics结束是一个失败，或成功。
继太阳。让我们开始，由谈论什么是Abenomics的。晚上好。一直以来所谓Abenomics的政策踢在去年12月-日本首相安倍晋三上任后仅半年，他载复苏的一个主要目标日本经济停滞。政策可以分解成三个部分。
踢关闭的Abenomics范式。大规模的量化宽松政策，贬值日元。并给予基准证券交易所日经指数在头几个月提振，东京还计划扩大政府开支。
在长期-进行政府改革-主要集中在放松管制，税收等等。重组计划预计将于本月底前公布，但其庞大的债券发行的缺点已经开始浮出水面。
这就是为什么日本的量化宽松政策可能会造成这样的高风险。
日本采购其政府预算一半以上通过主权债券。
由本地投资者拥有的其余部分通过税收收入。“超过95-％，日本的国家债券，它很容易为东京，以筹集钱，通过债券，但最终，这将是艰难的为东京，以支付回本金。
与的长期债券息率上升超过1％，这些天。请注意，日本的基准利息率徘徊略高于0％的大关。当债券的买家出售其背部，日本债券将失去它的吸引力，把政府在一个困难点。
“ 韩国已经打这个Abenomics政策，在其出口韩国的主要出口企业已经看到了他们的海外销售连续下降。而日本出口商看到了去年第三季度以来的急剧上升- ，日元开始摆脱其价值。
对于韩国，出口货运-不只是到东京，但世界各地的其他目的地也看到了切回订单。作为许多韩国的旗舰出口项目是在与日本同行的直接竞争。“的低日元，更高韩元趋势踢在去年11月，和它通常需要7至8个月内，以可反映于出口货物。
韩国的主要出口企业将继续遭受日元疲软。在下半年-从长远来看，也是如此。“
不过，继太阳，我们怎么知道，如果Abenomics工作你如何定义这个政策的成功或失败？要回答你的问题，它不是明确的，如果我们将成功定义为东京经济复苏计划。它可能不是一个很好的信号，韩国-日本出口商将重拾竞争力与韩国出口商在全球市场上的竞争，但在一个更宏观的角度来看，全球经济将受到提振- -鉴于日本经济在世界第三大。
如果的Abenomics未能实现其目标。市场的共识是，东京将低迷一段时间里没有任何增长非常喜欢的几十年的抑郁症之前，继续Abenomics生效，当然，这意味着多年的通缩将返回。市场将失去其信用日本政府具有较高的违约风险。
专家说，成功的关键-将是改革和改组政府。以及东京执行。来自其他国家的情绪，关于这个政策是什么。他们就像关注一些在韩国是上周五，国际货币基金组织（IMF）警告说，有“相当大的下行风险，”如果东京不大幅削减其巨额国债。国际货币基金组织赞扬安倍晋三和日本央行正对正确的轨道上他们的出价扭转多年的价格下跌。但他指出，东京必须兑现其承诺进行更多改革。