Investors Trading Academy2015.12.21---2016年金融趨勢展望

Investors Trading Academy2015.12.21---2016年金融趨勢展望
佈日期：2015年12月21日
Welcome to the Investors Trading Academy event of the week. Each week our staff of analysts and educators tries to provide you a better understanding of a major market event scheduled soon and that have an effect on the global markets. As the end of the year quickly approaches and the new year is set to begin the staff at Investors Trading Academy want to share with you some of our predictions for 2016.
In the coming year, investors face the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve shifting borrowing costs higher for the first time in nearly a decade, while trying to gauge the extent of China's slowing growth and how far other leading central banks ease policy.
How this divergence between the US and rest of the global economy plays out, looms as one important driver of investment sentiment across markets over the coming year. The Fed is very likely to face a dilemma of financial market turmoil and slowing global economic growth, which could reverse the US economic recovery. The US rate hike is likely to be slow and gradual. In fact, the market widely expects there will one to two rate hikes next year. The Fed might cut rates again in late 2016 or even launch QE4 if the US economic growth lags behind expectation.
Having sparked worldwide controversy by announcing he wants to ban Muslims entering the United States, Donald Trump could become a major cause of volatility in financial markets throughout the first half of 2016. Speaking after the recent mass shooting in San Bernardino, Calif., the Republican presidential candidate called for a “total and complete shutdown” of Muslims entering America. Clearly, Mr. Trump's comments are important as he is, currently, the front-runner in the race to be the GOP candidate and, therefore might make it to the Oval Office. America is the largest economy in the world and its policies are closely watched by financial critics across the globe.
The upturn in the US will enter its seventh year in 2016, and now has its zenith behind it. The recovery in the Eurozone, conversely, is a mere three years old and still has further potential. The resulting strong levels of demand are helping exporters to weather the price shocks.
China is now confronting a new reality. In the foreseeable future, it will need to adjust to significantly lower annual growth rates than the ambitious 6.5% targets set in its new five-year plan for 2016-2020. Both Asian giants are major importers of raw materials, and will continue to benefit from low commodity prices. However, in contrast to 2014 and 2015, the overall world economy is unlikely to derive much additional stimulus from declining prices for raw materials next year.
The major trends we are in 2016 are:
1) the dollar strength is set to continue and even post one-way rally
2) commodity prices will remain under pressure
3) global economy will be under stress or even face the risk of recession
4) global inflation will continue to slide and could even lead to deflationary risk.
5) Global political risk will rise as many continue to blame the establishment for the current economic situation.
By Barry Norman, Investors Trading Academy - ITA
欢迎来到本周的投资者交易学院事件。每个星期，我们的分析师和教育工作者的工作人员试图为您提供一个更好地了解计划很快一个主要的市场活动，而对全球市场产生影响。随着今年年底迅速接近，并在新的一年将开始对员工投资者交易学院希望跟大家做一些我们的预测为2016年分享。 在新的一年，投资者面临美国联邦储备转移的借款成本第一次在近十年的较高，而试图衡量中国的经济增长放缓，以及如何远远领先其他各国央行放松货币政策的程度的可能性。 如何与美国之间的这种分歧对全球经济的其余部分发挥出来，隐隐成为投资情绪的跨市场在未来一年的一个重要驱动力。美联储很可能会面临一个两难的金融市场动荡以及全球经济增长放缓，这可能会扭转美国经济的复苏。
美国的加息很可能是缓慢而渐进的。事实上，市场普遍预计将有一到两个加息，明年。美联储可能会在2016年后期再度降息甚至推出QE4，如果美国经济增长落后于预期。
拥有世界范围内引发了争议，宣布他要禁止穆斯林进入美国，唐纳德·特朗普可能成为金融市场波动的主要原因在整个2016年发表演讲后，在圣贝纳迪诺，加利福尼亚州，共和党最近拍摄质量上半场总统候选人呼吁穆斯林入境美国的一个“​​全面和彻底关机”。显然，特朗普先生的意见是很重要的，因为他是目前的领跑者在比赛中是共和党候选人，因此可能使它的椭圆形办公室。美国是最大的经济体在世界和它的政策是由世界各地的金融评论家的密切关注。
在美国的复苏将在2016年进入第七个年头，现在有它背后的顶峰。欧元区的复苏，相反，是一个只有3岁，仍然有进一步的潜力。需求产生强劲的水平是帮助出口商抵御价格波动。
中国现在面对一个新的现实。在可预见的未来，这将需要调整到显著降低年增长率比为2016-2020的新五年计划设定的雄心勃勃的6.5％的目标。这两个亚洲大国的原料主要进口国，并将继续从低廉的商品价格中获益。然而，与2014年和2015年，世界总体经济不太可能获得多少额外的刺激，从价格下降的原材料明年。
主要的趋势，我们在2016年是：
1）美元走强将继续下去，甚至后期单向反弹
2）大宗商品价格将继续承压
3）全球经济将承受压力，甚至面临衰退的风险
4）全球通胀将继续下滑，甚至有可能导致通货紧缩的风险。
5）全球政治风险将上升，因为许多人仍然指责设立了当前的经济形势。
巴里·诺曼，投资者交易学院 - ITA