TopTenz2016.4.22---20年內機器人將主導十大職位

TopTenz2016.4.22---20年內機器人將主導十大職位
發佈日期：2016年4月22日
Oxford University recently released a study concluding that almost half of today’s jobs performed by humans will be taken over by robots and software automation within the next two decades. Bill Gates has warned us that “technology over time will reduce demand for jobs, particularly at the lower end of the skill set … 20 years from now, labor demand for lots of skill sets will be substantially lower. I don’t think people have that in their mental model.” It’s hard to imagine a world where half of today’s jobs have been transferred over to robots, but it’s coming. Here are some of the most likely candidates.
牛津大學最近公佈的一項研究結論人工執行，幾乎一半的今天的職位將被接管由機器人和自動化軟件在未來二十年之內。比爾·蓋茨曾告誡我們，“技術隨著時間的推移會減少就業需求，尤其是在技能的下端......從現在起20年來，為許多技能勞動力的需求將大幅降低。我不認為人們有在他們的心智模式
10. Service Clerks
9. Waiters
8. Telemarketers & Technical Support
7. Real Estate Agents
6. Journalists
5. Pharmacists
4. Drivers
3. Soldiers
2. Teachers
1. Doctors




==========Google 翻译==========

0:0010 Jobs That Robots Will Dominate Within 20 years 0:0710. Service Clerks 0:12The jobs that are already starting to disappear are the minimum-wage service clerks: cashiers, 0:18bank tellers, even librarians. Today, you can withdraw, deposit, and check your bank 0:23balance through an ATM, and speaking to a real live bank teller has become a rare event. 0:30Self-checkouts are available at retail stores across the country, greatly reducing the need 0:34for human cashiers. Retail employment hasn’t increased by much in recent years despite 0:38sales performing strongly. It’s estimated that over $1 trillion will be transacted through 0:40self-service machines in 2014. It’s not hard to imagine a giant retailer like Wal-Mart 0:40or Target developing a completely automated store within the next few years. The technology 0:41is there, and in the case of self-checkout lines it has already proved to save them a 0:41lot of money. 0:419. Waiters 0:42Next time you go to Applebee’s or Chili’s, check out the tablet computers they now have 0:46on each table. Although both restaurants still employ waiters, food and drinks can now be 0:51ordered through the computers themselves, without ever talking to your server. More 0:55and more restaurants are encouraging their customers to use tablets to order food and 0:58pay their bill. This saves the restaurant money on staff, and customers actually end

1:03up spending more when they’re ordering from a tablet. 1:06One restaurant in Shandong, China has completely done away with human waiters in order to boost 1:11efficiency, and robots that cook and prepare gourmet food at a rapid rate have also been 1:14developed. (LINK 7) It won’t be much longer before large chain restaurants make the move 1:14to entirely robot-run establishments. 1:148. Telemarketers & Technical Support 1:15Telemarketers and technical support workers already sound like robots, so it’s not difficult 1:20to see how easily their jobs can be replaced by them. In some cases, these jobs have already 1:25been taken over. One example is a telemarketer named Samantha West. An insurance company 1:30in Florida employs the human-sounding robotic operator in order to gather information from 1:35callers before passing them onto a live human to finalize the sale. 1:39But how much longer until even the human closer is completely automated? Enter IBM’s Watson. 1:42After dominating the popular trivia show Jeopardy!, Watson’s next mission is to become a sales 1:44and customer support genius. Seriously. There’s a ton of money in sales and customer service, 1:45and IBM believes they can teach Watson to accurately respond to difficult off-script 1:49questions that sometimes confuse telemarketers and customer support technicians. IBM has 1:54actually created a machine that sells itself. They currently use Watson to sell Watsons 1:55to other companies. 1:557. Real Estate Agents 1:56The least glamorous aspect of being a real estate agent is spending hours each week showing

2:01off homes to prospective buyers. You make a plate of cookies, brew a pot of coffee, 2:02maintain the cleanliness of the home, and give the same mundane tour over and over. 2:03This entire task is on its way to being completely automated. MIT is developing “highly expressive 2:09humanoids” that move and interact with humans in a natural way. They can learn from people, 2:14and one robot named Rea has been trained to answer questions about property. 2:17There’s also no longer a need for the home owners to even clean their property — they 2:18can just buy a robot. A company called Robomow has come out with a machine that will vacuum 2:18your house, go outside and mow the lawn, and then hop in your pool and give that a clean 2:19too. We’ve come a long way from those first vacuuming Roombas. 2:206. Journalists 2:20Even supposedly creative career fields, such as journalism, will be replaced with machines. 2:25One expert predicts that over 90% of news articles will be written solely by computers 2:30within 15 years. It’s not hard to see why. News articles do little more than report the 2:36facts in an easy-to-read way. It shouldn’t be too much of a problem to train a computer 2:40to ingest data and spit out a finished news story. 2:43And apparently, it’s not. Narrative Sciences is the leader in machine-generated content. 2:49Their company produces stories completely untouched by humans. And these aren’t just 2:53test articles spit out at some university somewhere. You’ve probably read some robot 2:57written articles already and been none the wiser. The Big Ten Network uses Narrative

3:00Sciences’ machine to produce sports stories, and even Forbes magazine employs robot journalists 3:01to write and publish company earnings reports. 3:015. Pharmacists robot-pharmicist 3:02Replacement of pharmacists with robots has already begun, as the UCSF Medical Center 3:06has built an entirely automated hospital pharmacy run by intelligent machines. The robots at 3:12UCSF process, prepare, and track medications. Everything is done without any human input, 3:17and the result is improved safety for patients. Experts believe that pharmacists will be the 3:22first highly skilled workers that will lose their careers to robots. The pharmacy bots 3:27of today label vials, count pills, bill insurance companies, and look up patient records. The 3:31best robot pharmacists used today are already faster and commit far less errors than their 3:33human counterparts. 3:334. Drivers 3:34Everyone has heard of Google’s self-driving car program. These Google cars have autonomously 3:39driven over half a million miles with no accidents at all while under the control of the machines. 3:45It’s only a matter of time before these self driving machines spread, and millions 3:49of people are out of jobs. Bus drivers, truck drivers, taxi drivers, airline pilots, even 3:51the pizza delivery guy will be put out of work. 3:51In Australia, there’s already a large mining facility that has replaced all of its human 3:55drivers with 45 massive robot-controlled mining trucks. Trucks that drive themselves would

4:00save businesses a ton of money. These things can drive constantly, and there’s no need 4:05to pull over to sleep for eight hours or even stop for food. Replacing human drivers with 4:09robots will massively increase productivity. Unfortunately, this may be one of the largest 4:09groups of people left without jobs when autonomous vehicles are available on a massive scale. 4:093. Soldiers 4:10This is where it gets scary. Robotic Drones have already been in use by the CIA for years, 4:16and over 2,000 people in Pakistan have been killed by drones in the last decade. We’ve 4:20all seen videos of those four-legged pack-mule bots carting army equipment around, but how 4:24much longer until robot warriors are employed on a massive scale? General Robert Cone believes 4:30that by the middle of the century, US Army soldiers will be fighting alongside robo-squadmates. 4:34The Army is already planning on reducing the size of its combat teams from 4,000 human 4:36soldiers to 3,000, with robots and drones filling the gap. 4:36On the one hand it may seem a relief to have machines doing the dirty work of war for us, 4:39but on the other hand this could have terrifying consequences. The International Committee 4:44for Robot Arms Control was formed in 2009 to warn us of the disastrous consequences 4:49building robotic kill-machines could lead to. A future war scenario as outlined in the 4:52Terminator movies doesn’t seem that far fetched anymore. 4:532. Teachers 4:54Even teachers are at risk for losing their jobs in the next two decades. Computer scientists 4:59are developing super-sophisticated machines that interact with people in a natural way

5:04to teach them basic skills. This includes vocabulary and mathematics. Machines such 5:07as these are currently used to teach autistic children how to play and interact with other 5:08people. In Korea, human teachers have already been largely replaced by robots in some classrooms. 5:13Engkey, a popular English teaching robot, is in use in several schools in a new program 5:18launched by the South Korean government. The Engkey bots are still supported by a human 5:23teacher who appears on a video screen once problems arise. But, how much longer until 5:28even this human is replaced by a Watson-like super-intelligent machine? 5:321. Doctors 5:34Yes, even doctors are threatened by the rapid increase in machine intelligence. Even today 5:39when you go in for surgery, chances are you will be operated on with the help of a robot. 5:44Most large hospitals, and even many of the smaller ones, have huge octopus-armed machines 5:50that assist the doctors with performing surgeries. The robots are more precise and faster in 5:54many ways, and they even allow surgeons to work remotely. Imagine surgeons of the future 5:57lounging around in their underwear at home, eating cereal, watching Netflix, and at the 5:57same time remotely directing a robot surgery machine somewhere across the country. (LINK 5:5825) 5:58Some predict that four out of five doctors will eventually be replaced with computers.

6:03In India and Brazil, machines have already begun to practice primary care, and in some 6:07ways they perform much more accurately than human doctors. (LINK 26) And with the news 6:12of Apple’s Healthbook, it’s not difficult to imagine annual physicals becoming a thing 6:16of the past. When your phone has the ability to constantly monitor your blood sugar, heart 6:25rate, body weight, hydration, and perform other health tests, is there any reason to 6:29get a follow up from a human doctor?


0:00 10作业机器人将主导20年内 0:07 10.服务文员 0:12那些已经开始消失的工作岗位是最低工资的服务文员：收银员， 0:18银行柜员，甚至馆员。今天，你可以退出，存款，并检查您的银行 0:23通过ATM平衡，讲一个活生生的银行取款已成为一种罕见的事件。 0:30自检出可在全国各地的零售商店，大大减少了需要 0:34人类收银员。零售业就业尚未尽管最近几年增加了很多 0:38销售表现强劲。据估计，超过1万亿$将通过进行交易 0:40自助服务机在2014年不难想象，一个零售业巨头如沃尔玛 0:40或目标制定未来几年内一个完全自动化的存储。技术 0:41在那里，并在自助结帐线的情况下，它已经证明，以节省他们 0:41大量的资金。 0:41 9.服务员 0:42你去阿普尔比的或辣椒的下一次，检查出的平板电脑，他们现在有 0:46每个表。虽然这两个餐厅仍然使用服务员，食物和饮料，现在可以 0:51通过电脑本身有序的，从来没有谈论到您的服务器。更多 0:55多的餐馆正在鼓励他们的客户来使用平板电脑点菜和 0:58支付他们的账单。这节省了员工餐厅的钱和客户实际上最终

1:03达花费更多时，他们从平板电脑订货。 1:06在山东一间餐厅，中国已经完全是为了提高免掉人类服务员 1:11效率，机器人做饭，以极快的速度准备的美食也已 1:14发达。 （LINK 7）这不会是更长大型连锁餐厅做出行动前 1:14完全机器人经营的场所。 1:14 8.电话营销及技术支持 1:15电话销售和技术支持人员已经听起来像是机器人，所以它并不难 1:20来看看如何轻松地将其作业可以由他们来代替。在某些情况下，这些工作已经 1:25被接管。一个例子是一个命名萨曼莎西电话购物。保险公司 1:30在佛罗里达州雇佣人的冠冕堂皇的机器人操作者为了从收集信息 1:35它们传递到一个活人敲定出售前呼叫者。 1:39不过多久，直到连人类的接近是完全自动的？进入IBM的沃森。 1:42雄踞流行的琐事节目危害！之后，沃森的下一个任务是要成为一个销售 1:44和客户支持的天才。认真。有一个在销售和客户服务一吨的钱， 1:45而IBM相信他们可以教沃森准确地难离响应脚本 1:49问题有时混淆电话销售和客户支持技术人员。 IBM拥有 1:54实际上创造了销售本身的机器。他们目前使用屈臣氏卖屈臣氏 1:55给其他公司。 1:55 7.房地产经纪人 1:56身为房地产商最不光鲜的一面是花几个小时，每星期放映

2:01小康之家向准买家。你做饼干的一盘，沏一壶咖啡， 2:02维持家里的清洁，一遍又一遍给出相同的世俗之旅。 2:03这整个任务是在它的途中被完全自动化。麻省理工学院正在开发“极富表现力 2:09类人型机器人“的移动和以自然的方式人类互动。他们可以从别人身上学习， 2:14并命名为雷亚一个机器人一直练到回答关于财产的问题。 2:17还有不再需要的业主，甚至清洗他们的财产 - 他们 2:18可以只买一个机器人。所谓Robomow一家公司还推出了一台机器，将真空 2:18你的房子，到外面去修剪草坪，然后在你的游泳池跳，并给一个干净的 2:19太。我们从那些最初的吸尘Roombas很长的路要走。 2:20 6.记者 2:20即使所谓创作生涯的领域，如新闻，将与机器取代。 2:25一位专家预测，新闻文章的90％以上将被电脑完全写 2:30在15年。不难看出为什么。新闻文章做多一点的报告 2:36事实在一个易于阅读的方式。它不应该过多地训练电脑的问题 2:40摄取数据并吐出完成新闻故事。 2:43而显然，事实并非如此。叙事学是机器生成的内容中的佼佼者。 2:49他们公司生产的故事被人类完全不变。而这些不只是 2:53测试文章在一些大学吐出的地方。你可能读过一些机器人 2:57撰写的文章已经过和没有收获。大十网络使用叙事

3:00科学'机生产运动的故事，甚至是福布斯杂志采用机器人记者 3:01编写和出版公司的盈利报告。 3:01 5.药剂师机器人pharmicist 3:02与机器人药剂师的更换已经开始，作为UCSF医疗中心 3:06已经建立了智能机运行一个完全自动化的医院药房。机器人在 3:12加州大学旧金山分校的过程，准备和跟踪药物。一切都没有任何人力投入完成后， 3:17其结果是为患者改善的安全性。专家认为，药剂师将成为 3:22第一个高技能工人将失去他们的职业生涯中的机器人。药房机器人 3:27今日标签瓶，计数丸，票据保险公司，并查找病人的病历。该 3:31目前使用的最好的机器人药剂师已经快，并承诺比远不如自己的错误 3:33人同行。 3:33 4.驱动程序 3:34大家都听过谷歌的自动驾驶汽车的方案。这些谷歌的汽车有自主 3:39带动50多万英里，没有意外可言，而机器的控制之下。 3:45这只是一个时间的问题，这些自驾机蔓延之前，数百万 3:49人们失去工作的人。公交车司机，卡车司机，出租车司机，飞行员，甚至 3:51送披萨的家伙会被放出来的工作。 3:51在澳大利亚，有已经是已经取代了其所有的人的大型采矿设备 3:55司机45大规模的机器人控制的矿用卡车。该驱动器本身卡车则

4:00为公司节省大量的金钱。这些东西可以驱动不断，而且也没有必要 4:05拉过来睡八个小时，甚至停止为食。更换人类司机 4:09机器人将大规模提高生产效率。不幸的是，这可能是最大的一个 4:09一群人离开时没有自主车可大规模作业。 4:09 3.士兵 4:10这是它得到可怕的。机器人无人驾驶飞机已在使用由中央情报局多年， 4:16和超过2000人在巴基斯坦已经在过去的十年无人机打死。我们已经 4:20这些四条腿的驮骡机器人搬来搬去军队装备的所有看​​过视频，但如何 4:24更长的时间，直到机器人战士被采用大规模？罗伯特认为锥 4:30 ，到本世纪中叶，美国军士兵将沿着ROBO-squadmates战斗。 4:34陆军是从4000人减少了它的作战团队的规模已经开始筹划 4:36兵3000，与机器人和无人驾驶飞机填补了国内空白。 4:36一方面，它可能看起来救济有机器做战争的肮脏的工作对我们来说， 4:39但在另一方面，这可能具有可怕的后果。国际委员会 4:44机器人武器控制在2009年形成以警告我们的灾难性后果 4:49建设机器人杀人机器可能会导致。作为概述了未来战争场景 4:52终结者电影似乎并不牵强了。 4:53 2.教师 4:54即使教师在在未来二十年中失去工作的风险。计算机科学家 4:59正在开发的超精密的机器，在一个自然的方式与人互动

5:04教给他们基本技能。这包括词汇和数学。这样的机器 5:07因为这些都是目前用来教自闭症孩子怎么玩，并与其他互动 5:08人。在韩国，教师的人已经很大程度上被一些教室的机器人取代。 5:13 Engkey，一个流行的英语教学机器人，是在几所学校在使用新的程序 5:18由韩国政府启动。该Engkey机器人仍然由人支持 5:23在视频屏幕上一旦出现问题会出现谁的老师。但是，如何直至更长 5:28即使这个人是由沃森般的超级智能机器所取代？ 5:32 1.医生 5:34是的，即使医生通过机器智能的快速增长的威胁。即使在今天 5:39当你去进行手术，那么你将与机器人的帮助下进行操作。 5:44大多数大医院，甚至许多规模较小的，具有巨大的章鱼武装机 5:50 ，帮助医生与执行手术。机器人更精确和更快的 5:54很多方面，他们甚至让医生远程工作。畅想未来的外科医生 5:57四处闲逛在家里自己的内衣，吃谷物，观看Netflix和在 5:57同时远程指挥机器人手术机的地方遍布全国各地。 （链接 5:58 25） 5:58有人预测五分之四的医生会最终与电脑进行更换。

6:03在印度和巴西，机器已经开始练习初级保健，并在一些 6:07他们的方法进行更精确地比人类医生。 （LINK 26），并与新闻 6:12苹果的Healthbook的，这是不难想象的年度体检成为一个事 6:16过去的。当您的手机必须不断监测血糖，心脏的能力 6:25率，体重，水化，并执行其它健康测试，是没有任何理由 6:29从一个人的医生跟进？