Alex Tabarrok :如何用创新来克服危机

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http://dotsub.com/view/0e8eddaf-e142-457a-b4f9-d21a5c3b8c2e
Alex Tabarrok :如何用创新来克服危机
20世纪的上半叶 是人类历史上一个彻底失败的阶段, 那是一场浩劫. 我们经历了第一次世界大战, 大萧条, 第二次世界大战, 以及共产主义国家的兴起. 这其中的每一个势力都 將世界隔离开来, 分化世界, 分裂世界. 这些势力制造了很多壁垒, 政治壁垒, 贸易壁垒, 运输壁垒, 通信壁垒, 以及种种阻碍交流的无形屏障, 它们分裂了人民, 也分裂了国家.
直到二十世纪下半叶, 我们才慢慢开始从这个 深渊里爬出来. 贸易壁垒开始轰然倒塌. 这里是一些关税数据: 从开始的百分之四十, 一直降到百分之五以下. 我们实现了全球化. 这意味着什么呢? 这意味着人类的合作 已经跨越国界. 我们使世界变得更合作. 运输壁垒也倒塌了. 1950年, 一艘典型的货船可装载 五千至一万吨货物. 今天,一艘集装箱船的载重量达到十五万吨. 运作它需要的船员队伍比之前还小, 而且卸载也比以往更快. 通信壁垒, 不用我多说, 随着互联网的出现 也已不复存在了(GFW). 当然还有铁幕的瓦解, 政治壁垒已逐渐消除.
所有这一切都对世界有巨大的影响. 贸易增长了. 我有一些数据来证明. 1990年, 中国到美国的出口额是 150亿美元. 到2007年，则超过了3000亿美元. 也许最值得指出的是, 在21世纪初, 真的是第一次在现代历史上, 经济增长的势头几乎遍布世界各地 我已经提到过中国, 从1978年开始, 大约在毛泽东去世的时候, 开始了每年百分之十的经济增长. 年复一年, 真是难以置信! 史无前例的是, 中国把这么多人从贫困中 解救出来. 在过去三十年里, 中国运行了世界上最成功的 摆脱贫穷项目. 印度开始的晚一些, 但在1990年, 开始了迅猛的增长. 当时的人均年收入还 不到1000美元. 而在接下来的18年 几乎增加了两倍. 每年经济增长百分之六. 绝对难以置信. 非洲, 撒哈拉以南的非洲, 撒哈拉以南的非洲 是世界上 最抗拒发展的地区. 我们可以看到非洲的悲剧 就从这个条形图的前几个条. 负增长! 人民越来越穷, 都比不上他们父母的生活水平. 有时甚至比他们的祖父母还穷. 但在二十世纪末, 二十一世纪初, 我们看到非洲也开始发展. 正如你将会看到, 我认为我们有理由乐观. 因为我相信好戏还在后头呢! 为什么这么说呢?
在今天的发展的最前沿 主要是创新在推动经济增长. 也就是说, 尖端产品的特点是它的研究和开发费用 非常高, 但是制造成本很低. 这种创新, 比以往任何时候都更加 能够推动尖端技术的发展. 创新有一个很了不起的性质. 我认为托马斯杰斐逊 (Thomas Jefferson) 表达得相当好. 他说过, “他接受我的一个想法， 他自己受到教育，而我的想法并没有减少. 就象他借用我的蜡烛来点燃他的, 他有了光，而我并没有变暗." 或者换一个说法, 一个苹果可以喂一个人, 但一个创意可以哺育整个世界. 这并没有什么新奇的. 尤其对参加TED的代表们. 这实际上恰恰是TED的模式. 这里面真正的创新是认识到创意会起到更大的功能, 它会比以往任何时候都更能推动经济增长. 这就是为什么 贸易与全球化 比以往任何时候都更重要, 更有力. 而且比以往任何时候都能更快地促进经济增长.
为了解释为什么会是这样, 我先问一个问题. 假设有两个疾病, 一个是罕见的疾病，另一个是常见病. 但是如果不治疗他们, 后果会同样严重. 如果你来选择, 你会选哪一个呢? 常见病还是罕见病? 常见病. 对了. 我认为这是绝对正确的. 为什么呢? 因为治疗常见疾病的药物 会比治疗罕见疾病的药物多得多. 问题的根源在于动力. 发明新药物的成本都差不多, 无论那个药物可以治疗1000人, 10万人, 或100万人. 但是, 如果那个药物能治疗100万人, 它的营业收入会很高. 显然了, 生产治疗常见病药物 的动力要大得多. 换句话说, 大市场救生命. 这真是真正的"同病相怜"啊.
请想一想: 如果中国和印度像今天的美国一样富有, 抗癌药物的市场将是现在的8倍. 我们还没有达到那个程度, 但这是会实现的! 随着其他国家变得更加富有 对这些药品的需求 将大幅增加. 这意味着研发的动力会增加, 这对全世界每个人都有好处. 市场越大, 创新的动力越大. 不论是软件, 还是计算机芯片, 还是一个崭新的设计. 对于来自好莱坞的观众 这甚至可以解释为什么动作片的预算 比喜剧片要大. 这是因为动作片更容易翻译到 其他语言和其他文化. 这些电影的市场更大, 所以人们更愿意多投资, 所以预算可以更大.
好. 那么, 如果市场越大, 创新的动力越大, 我们如何能最大限度地发挥这一动力呢? 通过统一世界市场, 通过世界全球化. 我喜欢的说法是, "同一个想法", 想法就是为了分享, 就是说, 同一个想法可以为同一个世界服务, 为同一个市场服务. 同一个想法, 同一个世界, 同一个市场. 除此之外, 还有什么渠道来创造新的想法呢? 这些动力包括 全球化, 贸易. 还有什么别的办法呢? 恩，更多的创新者. 来自社会各阶层的创新者. 艺术家和改革家, 包括许多在这个讲台上演讲过的人. 我今天要特别提到科学家和工程师 因为我在这方面有一些数据. 我是一个靠数据说话的人.
今天, 不到百分之零点一 的世界人口是科学家和工程师. （众笑） 美国一直是创新方面的带头人. 一大部分的创新者在美国. 但是, 美国开始失去它在创新方面的领导地位. 对此我表示衷心感谢. 这是一件好事. 庆幸的是, 我们不在是创新方面的带头人了 因为长期以来, 美国 和其他几个发达国家, 肩负着整个研究和开发的 的重任. 但是, 请大家考虑一下: 如果整个世界都象现在的美国一样富裕, 那么, 将有5倍多的科学家和工程师 来贡献创意, 这对每个人都大有好处, 供大家分享. 我想到伟大的印度数学家拉马努金 (Ramanujan). 在今天的印度, 有多少个Ramanujans 在耕地里辛勤地劳动, 几乎无法养活自己, 他们什么时候才能来回报世界? 现在我们还没有达到那个程度. 但是, 这会在本世纪内实现的. 上个世纪的真正的悲剧是, 打个比喻: 如果你把世界人口想像成 一个巨大的计算机, 一个大规模并行处理器, 那么, 极其不幸的是 数十亿的处理器都没开动. 但是在这个世纪, 中国开始上线. 印度开始上线. 非洲也开始上线. 在这个世纪之内, 我们将看到下一个出生在非洲的爱因斯坦.
让我们来看一些数据. 这是关于中国的. 1996年, 中国产生不到100万 的新大学生,每年. 2006年, 这个数字超过了500万! 这意味着什么呢? 这意味着, 当别的国家变富以后, 我们都将会受益. 我们不应该担心其他国家在变富. 我们应该大力支持 一个富裕的中国, 一个富裕的印度, 和一个富裕的非洲. 我们需要增大对创新的需求, 需要扩大市场, 象我在前面讲到的, 还有, 我们需要向世界提供更多的创新. 现在你可以理解我为什么对此充满信心. 全球化在增大对创新的需求, 这是创新的动力. 教育投资使我们产出更多的创新想法.
事实上, 如果你看看世界历史 你可以看到一些乐观的理由. 从人类的起源 到1500年, 经济增长率为零, 没有任何增长. 1500至1800年, 只有一点点的经济增长. 但那时一个世纪的经济增长 比现在一年的增长还少. 1900年代, 增长率大约是百分之一. 二十世纪, 百分之二多一点. 二十一世纪, 增长率可达到百分之3.3, 或者更高. 即使是以这样的速度发展, 到2100年, 世界人均国内生产总值 将达到20万美元. 这不是美国的人均国内生产总值, 它将超过100万. 但世界人均国内生产总值是20万美元. 这不是远不可及的. 我们看不到那一天了. 但我们的孙子们大概会的. 而且据我看, 我认为这是一个相当适中的预测. 在Kurzweilian看来, 这个预测很悲观. 在Kurzweilian看来, 我象Eeyore的角色一样, 对经济增长很悲观. （众笑）
好. 那么会遇到什么样的问题呢? 大萧条会不会再发生? 那么让我们来看看. 让我们来看一下大萧条时期. 这是人均国内生产总值 从1900年到1929年. 让我们想象一下, 在1929年,如果你是一位经济学家 试图预测美国的未来经济增长率, 你还不知道美国经济即将猛降. 不知道我们即将进入 20世纪最重大的经济灾难期. 不知道这些情况, 你会怎样预测呢? 如果你的预测是根据 1900年至1929年的平均增长速度 你预测的结果大概是这样. 如果你更乐观一点, 根据兴隆的20年代来预测, 你会得到这个结论. 那么实际情况如何呢? 我们掉下了悬崖，但我们恢复过来了. 事实上, 20世纪下半叶的 增长速度远远超过了任何预测, 如果你的预测是基于20世纪上半叶的数据. 所以说, 经济增长可以冲走 大萧条造成的损失.
好. 还有什么值得考虑的呢? 石油. 石油. 这是一个大课题. 当我在准备这个讲演的时候, 石油是140美元一桶. 所以, 大家都在想一个问题. 他们在问, “中国在喝我们的奶昔么?" （众笑） 这是有一定的道理的. 如果考虑到有限的资源. 随着经济增长的加快, 对资源的需求也会增加. 但我认为在坐的观众不用我讲就明白, 石油价格增长并不一定是一件坏事. 此外, 正如大家都知道, 能源, 而不是石油, 是最重要的. 而且, 油价越高, 投资新能源研发的动力越大. 你可以从数据里看得出: 随着石油价格的上涨, 能源专利也在上升. 今天的世界做了很好的准备 来应付油价上涨的危机, 比以往任何时候都有准备, 正是因为我所讲到的. 同一个想法, 同一个世界, 同一个市场.
所以我很乐观 只要我们坚持以下这两个想法: 继续推动世界市场的全球化, 继续扩大跨越国界的合作, 并继续投资于教育. 美国在这一方面有特别重要 的作用 -- 继续全球化我们的教育体系, 继续保证我们的教育系统开放给来自世界各地的学生 -- 因为我们的教育体系 正如一根蜡烛, 其他学生来用它来点燃他们自己的蜡烛. 你们还记得我引用过的Jefferson的话吗? Jefferson 说过. "当他们来用 我们的蜡烛去点燃他们的蜡烛时, 他们有了光, 而我们也不会变暗." 但是, Jefferson并不完全正确, 对吗? 因为事实上, 当他们用我们的蜡烛来点燃他们的蜡烛时, 大家有两倍的光来共享. 因此, 我的看法是, 我们应该保持乐观. 传播思想, 传播光明.
谢谢. （掌声）


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Alex Tabarrok on how ideas trump crises
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The first half of the twentieth century was an absolute disaster in human affairs, a cataclysm. We had the First World War, the Great Depression, the Second World War, and the rise of the communist nations. And each one of these forces split the world, tore the world apart, divided the world. And they threw up walls, political walls, trade walls, transportation walls, communication walls, iron curtains, which divided peoples and nations.

It was only in the second half of the twentieth century that we slowly began to pull ourselves out of this abyss. Trade walls began to come tumbling down. Here are some data on tariffs: starting at 40 percent, coming down to less than 5 percent. We globalized the world. And what does that mean? It means that we extended cooperation across national boundaries. We made the world more cooperative. Transportation walls came tumbling down. You know in 1950 the typical ship carried 5,000 to 10,000 tons worth of goods. Today a container ship can carry 150,000 tons. It can be manned with a smaller crew, and unloaded faster than ever before. Communication walls, I don't have to tell you, the internet, have come tumbling down. And of course the iron curtains, political walls have come tumbling down.

Now all of this has been tremendous for the world. Trade has increased. Here is just a little bit of data. In 1990 exports from China to the United States -- 15 billion dollars. By 2007, over 300 billion dollars. And perhaps most remarkably, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, really for the first time in modern history, growth extended to almost all parts of the world. So China, I've already mentioned, beginning in 1978, around the time of the death of Mao, growth -- ten percent a year. Year after year after year, absolutely incredible. Never before in human history have so many people been raised out of such great poverty, as happened in China. China is the world's greatest anti-poverty program over the last three decades. India, starting a little bit later, but in 1990, begetting tremendous growth. Incomes at that time less than 1,000 dollars per year. And over the next 18 years have almost tripled. Growth of six percent a year. Absolutely incredible. Now Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has been the area of the world most resistant to growth. And we can see the tragedy of Africa in the first few bars here. Growth was negative. People were actually getting poorer than their parents. And sometimes even poorer than their grandparents had been. But at the end of the twentieth century, the beginning of the twenty-first century, we saw growth in Africa. And I think, as you'll see, there's reasons for optimism. Because I believe that the best is yet to come. Now why.

On the cutting edge today it's new ideas which are driving growth. And by that I mean it's products for which the research and development costs are really high, and the manufacturing costs are low. More than ever before it is these types of ideas which are driving growth on the cutting edge. Now ideas have this amazing property. Thomas Jefferson, I think, really expressed this quite well. He said, "He who receives an idea from me receives instruction himself, without lessening mine. As he who lights his candle at mine receives light without darkening me. Or to put it slightly differently, one apple feeds one man, but an idea can feed the world. Now this is not new. This is practically not new to TEDsters. This is practically the model of TED. What is new is that the greater function of ideas is going to drive growth even more than ever before. This provides a reason why trade and globalization are even more important, more powerful than ever before, and are going to increase growth more than ever before.

And to explain why this is so, I have a question. Suppose that there are two diseases. One of them is rare, the other one is common. But if they are not treated they are equally severe. If you had to choose, which would you rather have? The common disease or the rare disease? Common. The common. I think that's absolutely right. Why? Because there are more drugs to treat common diseases than there are to treat rare diseases. The reason for this is incentives. It costs about the same to produce a new drug, whether that drug treats 1,000 people, 100,000 people, or a million people. But the revenues are much greater if the drug treats a million people. So the incentives are much larger to produce drugs which treat more people. To put this differently, larger markets save lives. In this case misery truly does love company.

Now think about the following: if China and India were as rich as the United States is today, the market for cancer drugs would be eight times larger than it is now. Now we are not there yet, but it is happening. As other countries become richer the demand for these pharmaceuticals is going to increase tremendously. And that means an increase incentive to do research and development, which benefits everyone in the world. Larger markets increase the incentive to produce all kinds of ideas. Whether it's software, whether it's a computer chip, whether it's a new design. For the Hollywood people in the audience, it even explains why action movies have larger budgets than comedies. It's because action movies translate easier into other languages and other cultures. So the market for those movies is larger. People are willing to invest more, and the budgets are larger.

Alright. Well if larger markets increase the incentive to produce new ideas, how do we maximize that incentive? It's by having one world market, by globalizing the world. The way I like to put this is, one idea, ideas are meant to be shared, so one idea can serve one world, one market. One idea, one world, one market. Well how else can we create new ideas? That's one reason. Globalize, trade. How else can we create new ideas? Well, more idea creators. Now idea creators, they come from all walks of life. Artists and innovators, many of the people you've seen on this stage. I'm going to focus on scientists and engineers because I have some data on that, and I'm a data person.

Now, today, less than 1/10th of one percent of the world's population are scientists and engineers. (Laughter) The United States has been an idea leader. A large fraction of those people are in the United States. But the U.S. is losing its idea leadership. And for that I am very grateful. That is a good thing. It is fortunate that we are becoming less of an idea leader because for too long the United States, and a handful of other developed countries, have shouldered the entire burden of research and development. But consider the following: if the world as a whole were as wealthy as the United States is now there would be more than five times as many scientists and engineers contributing to ideas which benefit everyone, which are shared by everyone. I think of the great Indian mathematician, Ramanujan. How many Ramanujans are there in India today toiling in the fields, barely able to feed themselves, when they could be feeding the world? Now we're not there yet. But it is going to happen in this century. The real tragedy of the last century is this: if you think about the world's population as a giant computer, a massively parallel processor, then the great tragedy has been that billions of our processors have been off line. But in this century China is coming on line. India is coming on line. Africa is coming on line. We will see an Einstein in Africa in this century.

Here is just some data. This is China. 1996, less than one million new university students in China, per year. 2006, over five million. Now think what this means. This means we all benefit when another country gets rich. We should not fear other countries becoming wealthy. That is something that we should embrace -- a wealthy China, a wealthy India, a wealthy Africa. We need a greater demand for ideas, those larger markets I was talking about earlier, and a greater supply of ideas for the world. Now you can see some of the reasons why I'm optimistic. Globalization is increasing the demand for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas. Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas.

In fact if you look at world history you can see some reasons for optimism. From about the beginnings of humanity to 1500, zero economic growth, nothing. 1500 to 1800, maybe a little bit of economic growth. But less in a century than you expect to see in a year today. 1900s maybe one percent. Twentieth century a little bit over two percent. Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3 even higher percent. Even at that rate by 2100, average GDP per capita in the world will be 200,000 dollars. That's not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million. But world GDP per capita, 200,000 dollars. That's not that far. We won't make it. But some of our grandchildren probably will. And I should say I think this is a rather modest prediction. In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy. In Kurzweilian terms I'm like the Eeyore of economic growth. (Laughter)

Alright what about problems? What about a great depression? Well let's take a look. Let's take a look at the Great Depression. Here is GDP per capita from 1900 to 1929. Now let's imagine that you were an economist in 1929, trying to forecast future growth for the United States, not knowing that the economy was about to go off a cliff. Not knowing that we were about to enter the greatest economic disaster certainly in the twentieth century. What would you have predicted not knowing this? If you had based your prediction, your forecast on 1900 to 1929 you'd have predicted something like this. If you'd been a little more optimistic, say based upon the roaring 20s, you'd have said this. So what actually happened? We went off a cliff but we recovered. In fact in the second half of the twentieth century growth was even higher than anything you would have predicted based upon the first half of the twentieth century. So growth can wash away even what appears to be a great depression.

Alright. What else? Oil. Oil. This was a big topic. When I was writing up my notes oil was 140 dollars per barrel. So people were asking a question. The were saying, "Is China drinking our milkshake?" (Laughter) And there is some truth to this in the sense that we have something of a finite resource. And increased growth is going to push up demand for that. But I think I don't have to tell this audience that a higher price of oil is not necessarily a bad thing. Moreover, as everyone knows, look it's energy, not oil, which counts. And higher oil prices mean a greater incentive to invest in energy R&D. You can see this in the data. As oil prices go up, energy patents go up. The world is much better equipped to overcome an increase in the price of oil today, than ever in the past, because of what I'm talking about. One idea, one world, one market.

So I'm optimistic so long as we hew to these two ideas: to keep globalizing world markets, keep extending cooperation across national boundaries, and keep investing in education. Now the United States has a particularly important role to play in this -- to keep our education system globalized, to keep our education system open to students from all over the world -- because our education system is the candle that other students come to to light their own candles. Now remember here what Jefferson said. Jefferson said, "When they come and light their candles at ours, that they gain light, and we are not darkened." But Jefferson wasn't quite right, was he? Because the truth is, when they light their candles at ours, there is twice as much light available for everyone. So my view is be optimistic. Spread the ideas. Spread the light. Thank you. (Applause)