Shai Agassi :電動車计划

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http://dotsub.com/view/593b328a-d4b7-4cf3-8ef8-4ce6adfa8746
Shai Agassi :電動車计划
怎么让一个国家在没有用石油的情况下运转？ 那个问题突然浮现在我的脑海 四年以前在Davos的一个下午。 我永远不会忘记它。 我越想越多，就像一个游戏。 一开始我想一定应该用乙醇。 所以我便开始学习研究乙醇。 然后发现，每个国家必须得有个自己的亚马孙来支持。 六个月以后，我觉得答案必定是氢气， 直到后来某科学家告诉我一个不幸的事实： 你其实用了 比你所得到的更多干净的电子， 如果在汽车里使用氢气的话。 所以这并不是一个可行的办法。
然后经过反反复复的思考， 我有了这样一个想法， 如果你可以将整个国家转换到使用电力汽车， 在方便和经济的前提下， 那你便有了解决的方法。 我从一开始觉得 我们的办法只能在一个很大的范围内可行。 这并不是怎么制造一辆车， 而是，怎么设计一个方案 可以让百分之99的人都使用这种汽车。 第一个想法便是这种车必须跟现在的车 一样好用。 因此，第一：它必须比一辆汽车方便。 第二：它必须比现代的汽车便宜。 便宜的意思不是指一辆4万美元的轿车。 对吧？那可不是我们今天可以购买的汽车。 并且，方便的意思不是说你得充电8小时却只能开1小时。
所以我们需要遵循物理原理 以及经济原理。 于是我开始问这样一个问题： 我们应该如何在现有的 科学限定范围内实现这个理想， 要知道，我们并没有科学展览以及尝试各种试验的时间 更没有等待神奇电池诞生的时间。 那我们应该怎么在现有经济条件之下实现这个目标？ 我们应该怎么从消费者动力处着手？ 而不是从硬性法令限制处着手。
在某个去Tesla参观的下午， 我突然意识到这些问题的答案来自 汽车拥有权以及 电池拥有权的分离。 在某种程度上，你会觉得这是经典的 “不包含电池”。 如果现在你将这两者分离， 你便有了如何解决节能车需求的答案－ 通过创造一个网络， 在汽车出现之前，创造一个网络。 这个网络由两个部分组成。 第一个部分是每当你停车的时候，你让汽车充电－－ 结果这些汽车变成了只会行驶两个小时 而要充电12个小时的机器。 如果你驾驶汽车早上出门，下午回程 这样的话，充电与驾驶的比例是1分钟比一分钟。 由此产生的第一个想法是， 任何我们停车的地方都会有电力。 这听上去可能有点不可思议。 但是，在世界某个角落， 像北欧，这个设置已经存在。 如果你把车停了，不把暖气开着， 当你回来的时候，车一定开不了。
现在想想这最后一英里， 最后一步，在某种意义上， 是迈向基础设施的第一步。 基础设施的第二步便是解决 扩大范围的需要。 我们被现有的电池技术限制， 在适当的空间和重量限制范围之内， 汽车只能行驶大概120英里左右。 对大部分人来说，120英里已经是一个足够的范围。 可是，没有人愿意被现有的限制束缚。 因此，我们为我们的网络添加了第二个成分 这便是一个电池交换系统。 你驾驶。 你把已耗尽的电池取出。 换上一个全新的电池，你继续你的旅程。 这并不是体力劳动。这是全自动模式。 这跟自动洗车一样。 你把车开入自动洗车系统， 一个钢板将你的电池取出，换进一个新的电池。 两分种之内，你便可以上路， 继续你的旅程。 如果任何地方都有充电站， 任何地方都有电池替换系统， 你会多久换一次电池，充一次电？ 其实这样下来 你换电池的频率比你加油的频率要低。 我们甚至把这个事实加入到我们的合同里。 我们规定如果你一年停车替换电池多于50次， 我们会补偿你， 因为这样停车换电池非常不方便。
然后我们审查了消费者能否负担的问题。 当电池与汽车分离， 不再是车的一部分会怎么样呢。 电池究竟是花多少钱？ 别人都告诉我们电池很贵。 我们发现，当你从分子过渡到电子， 有趣的事情便由此产生了。 我们再回到最原有的汽车经济原理，重新考量。 电池，在某种程度上，跟油箱不一样。 还记得你的汽车里有一个油箱。 你有原油。 把原油加工，运输， 便成了我们现有的汽油。 电池，从这个角度看，就像原油。 我们有电池海湾。 费用大概是几百美元， 跟油箱一样。 但是原油被电池取代。 电池不会燃烧。 它只会耗损自己 一步接一步。 现有电池有大概2000个寿命循环。 就像一个小型的油井。 过往当我们决定买一辆电力车， 我们必须付那口井的全部费用。 买车的时候， 没有任何人想购入一口小型井。 在某种程度上，我们创造了 一个新的消费品。
你们，今天，买汽油英里。 而我们却创造了电力英里。 电力英里的价钱非常有意思。 在2010年的今天， 按数量计算， 我们今天进入市场，价钱是8美分一英里。 那些对这个概念有点模糊的观众， 在平均消费 环境下，在美国 一加仑20英里大概是1.50， 1.60一加仑。 这比现在的油价要便宜多了，甚至在美国。 在税收严谨的欧洲， 这就等于－60美元一桶原油。 可是电力英里跟随摩尔定律。 在2010年，它们从8美分一英里， 到2015年4美分一英里， 到2020年2美分一英里。 为什么？因为电池寿命循环不断提升－ 能源密集的进步会导致价钱下调。 而且这些价钱都是在使用无污染电子的基础上产生的。 我们不会使用任何来自煤炭的电子。 所以，在某种意义上，这是 一个绝对无碳，无矿物燃料， 的电力英里，价钱在2020将是2美分一英里。 就算我们在2020年之前能达到40英里一加仑 正如我们所愿。 想像路上只有40英里一加仑的车。 那是80美分一加仑。 80美分一加仑是指如果把整个太平洋 变成原油， 我们让所有石油公司开发加工， 他们还是不能跟2美分英里相比。 这是一个新的经济因素， 许多人对此极感兴趣。
这本来是一篇极好的文章。 这便是我解决这个问题的过程。 我把这分白皮书分发给不同的政府。 一部分政府告诉我这个概念很有趣， 年轻一代会真的考虑这种方案。 (笑声) 直到我联络到 Shimon Peres，一个年轻的领袖，以色列总统， 他让我好好的操作了这个理念。 首先他让我联络以色列首相。 他告诉我，如果你可以收集到足够开发这个网络的资金， 20亿美金， 并且可以找到汽车制造商， 能生产大量的那个模型的汽车， 大概2两百万辆车左右。 这便是以色列所需要的。 如果你可以办到这些，我将给你整个国家，让你投资那20亿美金。 Peres认为这是一个很好的想法。
因此我们调查了所有的汽车制造商。 我们还给他们发了信。 在这些厂商当中，三个从来没有回复。 其中一个问我们 能否只用双动力汽车，他们会给我们折扣。 但是，其中一位，雷诺和尼桑的CEO，Carlos Ghosn， 当他被问到双动力汽车的时候，他给了一个很有趣的答案。 他说双动力汽车就像美人鱼一样。 当你要看金鱼的时候，你看到女子，当 你要看女子的时候，你却看到金鱼。 (笑声) Ghosn告诉我们， "我可以制造这种电力汽车。 Peres先生，我会为你制造这种汽车。" 事实上，雷诺早已投资15亿美金 在制造9种不同的电力汽车， 它们将大量进入市场－ 第一年预计产量，10万辆。 这将是第一款大量生产的电力汽车， 市场上第一款零排放量的电力汽车。 正如Chris所说，我当时竞任 SAP，一个大型软件公司的CEO。 Peres问我会不会主管这个项目。 我告诉他我已经做好了当CEO的准备。 他说， "不不不。 你得告诉我 有什么比拯救你的国家和拯救世界 更重要的事情?"
我于是退出了SAP CEO的竞选，开始了这个名为“更美好的地方”的案子。 然后我们决定把这个案子扩大。 我们去了别的国家。 像我之前说的，我们去了丹麦。 丹麦把这个方案设定成了一个叫 IQ测试的政策。 这个方案被设置成跟税收成反比。 丹麦政府对所有汽油车征收百分之180的税， 不对零排放量的汽车征收任何税收。 因此如果你在丹麦想购买一辆汽油汽车，价钱大概是6万欧元左右。 如果你买我们的车，价钱大概是2万欧元左右。 如果你无法通过这个IQ测试，丹麦政府将命令你离开丹麦。 (笑声）
我们于是被称为 只在小岛国活动的一组。 我知道大部分人不认为以色列是一个小岛国家。 可是以色列是一个岛国。 以色列是一个交通岛国。 如果你的车在以色列以外行驶，那你的车必定是被盗窃了。 (笑声） 如果你把这些国家都看成是岛屿， 那么我们决定去我们可以找到的最大的岛国。 那便是澳大利亚。 澳大利亚是我们第三个公布的国家。 澳大利亚有三个中心－－ 布里斯班市，墨尔本，和悉尼－－ 再加一个高速，一个把这三个中心连起来的电子高速。 下一个岛屿 并不难找，那便是夏威夷。 于是我们决定来到美国， 并选择了两个最好的地方－－ 两个并不需要任何扩大范围的地方。 在夏威夷，你可以依靠一个电池兜游整个岛。 如果你真的计划一个比较长的行程日，你可以替换， 并且不断的驾驶。
第二个地方便是三藩市湾区。 在所有的市长当中，Gavin Newsom精心设计了一个政策方案。 他决定要掌管整个 加利福尼亚州，非正式的，然后正式的。 然后设置这个叫"1号地区"的政策。 在三藩市湾区，你不但有 最高密度的丰田双动力车Priuses， 而且你有最完善的范围扩大设置。 这个被称为另类的车。 正当我们开始扩大这个方案 我们研究了美国所面临的问题。 为什么这是一个重要的问题？ 我们所见过的最有趣的是 当个人有些小问题时， 像每天的汽油价格这种事， 你并不太注意。 可是当问题聚集起来， 那可麻烦了。 是吧？
所以油价，就像 我们见过的其他曲线一样， 沿着一个耗尽曲线发展。 这个曲线建立在我们逐渐失去接近地下的油井的基础上。 然后我们便不停的开发离地下越来越远的油井。 这样的油井最后变得越来越贵去开发。 你想想，油价上涨过，下调过， 再上涨过，而且会一直上下变动。 问题在此： 六个月前，原油价高立在147美元一桶， 美国购买石油，花费不少。 然后美国经济崩溃，原油价下调到47美元一桶。 有时是40美元，有时是50美元。 现在我们的政府正实行一个经济刺激计划。 一个所谓万亿美元的刺激计划。 我们意图使经济复苏，希望2015年之前发生， 大概在这个时间段里。 那当经济复苏时，社会将变成什么样？ 在2015年前，我们至少将有2.5亿辆新车 就算我们按现有的汽车增加率计算。 那意味着原油需求将上涨百分之30。 那时还要增加两千五百万桶的原油。 即美国现在的原油消耗量。 这就是说当我们经济复苏时，我们将到达原油需求的高峰点。 然后我们来实行OPEC刺激计划， 也被称为200美元一桶原油。 我们把我们的资金都用在原油上面。 你知道到了那个程度，什么会发生吗？ 我们的经济会下调。 它会一直不断上下浮动。 并且，下调的时间会越来越长， 上升的时间会越来越短。
这个就是可添加性问题， 像二氧化碳问题，慢慢上升然后达到最高峰， 跟耗尽性问题， 我们失去我们所拥有的某种资源， 这种资源一直变动，直到 我们完全用尽这种资源。 其实我们查看了这个问题的答案。 对吗？还记得那个广告宣传，一百万 混合动力车，到2015年 那可是百分之0.5的美国耗油量。 那只是世界耗油量微不足道的一部分。 那样做没有什么意义。
我们查看了一个麻省理工大学的研究： 一千万电力汽车投放国际市场。 这是我们计划投入的5亿辆电力汽车中的一千万。 那可是你所可以拥有的最保守的数量。 同时也是最乐观的一个数字， 因为这意味这我们将扩大这个行业 从2011年的10万辆， 到2016年的1千万辆。 这意味着不到5年内10倍的增长。 同时你必须记得现时的世界每天都在增加许多的汽车。 按区域计算，我们有一千万辆汽车。 那可是一个不可小看的数字。
中国正飞速的增加汽车数量－－ 印度，俄罗斯，巴西， 这些地区都如此。 欧洲已经把这个问题解决。 他们在汽油上加税。 他们将会第一个摆脱对石油的依赖， 因为价钱将高得无法让人承受。 中国将会解决用硬性法规这个问题。 他们将会禁止 任何汽油汽车进入城市。 那会是汽油汽车的最终下场。 印度人民根本不了解为什么这是一个问题， 因为大部分人在印度每次只加2到3加仑汽油。 对于他们来说，一个可以行走120英里的电池 简直是范围的无限扩大，不是范围的缩小。 我们是唯一一个没有将油价设置好的国家。 我们也没有把各行业设置好。 我们没有任何刺激去解决这个问题 这个现象横跨全美国。
汽车工业在这个问题上的位置究竟在哪？ 这个非常有意思。 汽车工业一直都只专注在它们自己身上。 基本上他们查看了形势然后决定，“汽车1.0 我们将在汽车身上解决所有问题。“ 没有基本设施，没有问题。 我们忘记了这些围绕着我们的产业链。 这些在我们身边发生的事情。 我们正关注汽车2.0的发展－－ 一个全新的市场，一个全新的商业模式。 这个商业模式带来新的收益 驾驶汽车会促使， 时间，英里如果那比较便于理解， 这些你熟悉的概念， 用来补助汽车的价钱， 就像手机一样。你只负责驾驶距离。 这些钱，一部分将会回到汽车制造商身上。 一部分将会回到你自己的口袋里。 我们的汽车将比汽油汽车便宜。
这将是一个汽车与风车磨坊相组合的世界。 在丹麦，我们将依赖 风力而不是汽油，来驾驶所有的汽车。 在以色列，我们将在 南部建立一个太阳能磨坊。 人们说，"你们要的可是一个巨大的空间。” 我们回答，“如果我们证明在这个空间里 我们可以为这个国家找到足够一百年的石油？” 他们说，“我们已经尝试过了。那里没有石油。” 我们说，"不，不，我们能证明，怎么样？“ 然后他们说，”那你就挖吧。" 于是我们开始往上挖， 并不是往下钻。 这些是完全符合双方的资源。
现在你只需要百分之10 的所得电力。 想像这个是持续10年的项目。 那便是平均每年百分之1。 现在我们正要解决一些主要的问题， 我们必须开始考虑两个数字。 它们并不是在2010年达到百分之20。 这两个数字是零，零排放量和零耗油量， 并且把它们的规模无穷的扩大。 当我们去今年点底的COP15 我们不停的在想如何衬垫二氧化碳。 我们得开始设想如何鼓励那些愿意 采用这个方案的国家。
一辆汽车排放4顿二氧化碳。 现时的7亿辆汽车 排放28亿顿二氧化碳。 那只是我们所有问题的百分之25。 汽车跟卡车二氧化碳排放量占世界二氧化碳排放量的百分之25。 我们得好好的解决这个问题 设定一个坚定的目标， 用我们的毅力说在世界末日之前，我们的汽车将不再排放任何二氧化碳。 事实上，我与部分美国参议院分享了这个想法。 我跟Bobby Kennedy Junior分享了这个想法。 他可是我其中的一位偶像。 我告诉他其中一个重要的原因 他的叔叔被人们记得 因为他说我们要把人类送上月球 我们将在这十年内达到这个目标。 我们并不是说我们有百分之20的把握把人送到月球。 尽管我们只有大概百分之20的把握能把这个人送回来。 (笑声)
他于是给我讲了一个200年前的故事。 200年前，在英国议会 存在着一个悠久的争议， 一个关于经济与道德的争议。 百分之25，像我们今天所说的百分之25的汽车排放量， 百分之25的能源， 支持英国整个工业世界 来自一个非常不道德的渠道： 奴隶。 于是便有了如此的一个争议。 我们应该停止使用奴隶吗？ 如果我们停止使用奴隶，那我们的经济将变成怎样？ 而且人们说，“那可得时间啊。” 暂时先不要急。我们可以先把奴隶的孩子释放 把奴隶留着。 经过一个月的争论后，他们决定停止奴隶制。 工业革命在不到一个月内随之诞生。 英国因此获得100年的经济发展。 我们得做出正确的道德选择。 我们必须马上行动。 我们需要总统的领导 就像我们在以色列宣誓我们将不再使用石油。 我们需要在今天行动，不是在20年到50年之内， 而是在这个总统任期内， 因为如果我们不采取行动，我们将失去我们的经济， 接着我们将失去我们的道德体系。
谢谢大家！ (掌声)


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Shai Agassi's bold plan for electric cars
So how would you run a whole country without oil? That's the question that sort of hit me in the middle of a Davos afternoon about four years ago. It never left my brain. And I started playing with it more like a puzzle. The original thought I had, this must be ethanol. So I went out and researched ethanol. And found out you need the Amazon in your backyard in every country. About six months later I figured out it must be hydrogen, until some scientist told me the unfortunate truth, which is, you actually use more clean electrons than the ones you get inside a car, if you use hydrogen. So that is not going to be the path to go.

And then sort of through a process of wandering around, I got to the thought that actually if you could convert an entire country to electric cars, in a way that is convenient and affordable, you could get to a solution. Now I started this from a point of view that it has to be something that scales en masse. Not how do you build one car. But how do you scale this so that it can become something that is used by 99 percent of the population. The thought that came to mind is that it needs to be as good as any car that you would have today. So one, it has be more convenient than a car. And two, it has be more affordable than today's cars. Affordable is not a 40,000 dollar sedan. Alright? That's not something that we can finance or buy today. And convenient is not something that you drive for an hour and charge for eight.

So we're bound with the laws of physics and the laws of economics. And so the thought that I started with was how do you do this, still within the boundary of the science we know today, no time for science fair, no time for playing around with things or waiting for the magic battery to show up. How do you do it within the economics that we have today? How do you do it from the power of the consumer up? And not from the power of an edict down.

On a random visit to Tesla on some afternoon, I actually found out that the answer comes from separating between the car ownership and the battery ownership. In a sense if you want to think about it this is the classic "batteries not included." Now if you separate between the two, you could actually answer the need for a convenient car by creating a network, by creating a network before the cars show up. The network has two components in them. First component is you charge the car whenever you stop -- ends up that cars are these strange beasts that drive for about two hours and park for about 22 hours. If you drive a car in the morning and drive it back in the afternoon the ratio of charge to drive is about a minute for a minute. And so the first thought that came to mind is, everywhere we park we have electric power. Now it sounds crazy. But in some places around the world, like Scandinavia, you already have that. If you park your car and didn't plug in the heater, when you come back you don't have a car. It just doesn't work.

Now that last mile, last foot, in a sense, is the first step of the infrastructure. The second step of the infrastructure needs to take care of the range extension. See we're bound by today's technology on batteries, which is about 120 miles if you want to stay within reasonable space and weight limitations. 120 miles is a good enough range for a lot of people. But you never want to get stuck. So what we added as a second element to our network is a battery swap system. You drive. You take your depleted battery out. A full battery comes on. And you drive on. You don't do it as a human being. You do it as a machine. It looks like a car wash. You come into your car wash. And a plate comes up, holds your battery, takes it out, puts it back in. Within two minutes you're back on the road. And you can go again. If you had charge spots everywhere, and you had battery swap stations everywhere, how often would you do it? And it ends up that you'd do swapping less times than you stop at a gas station. As a matter of fact, we added to the contract. We said that if you stop to swap your battery more than 50 times a year we start paying you money because it's an inconvenience.

Then we looked at the question of the affordability. We looked at the question, what happens when the battery is disconnected from the car. What is the cost of that battery? Everybody tells us batteries are so expensive. What we found out, when you move from molecules to electrons, something interesting happens. We can go back to the original economics of the car and look at it again. The battery is not the gas tank, in a sense. Remember in your car you have a gas tank. You have the crude oil. And you have refining and delivery of that crude oil as what we call petrol or gasoline. The battery in this sense, is the crude oil. We have a battery bay. It costs the same hundred dollars as the gas tank. But the crude oil is replaced with a battery. Just it doesn't burn. It consumes itself step after step after step. It has 2,000 life cycles these days. And so it's sort of a mini well. We were asked in the past when we bought an electric car to pay for the entire well, for the life of the car. Nobody wants to buy a mini well when they buy a car. In a sense what we've done is we've created a new consumable.

You, today, buy gasoline miles. And we created electric miles. And the price of electric miles ends up being a very interesting number. Today 2010, in volume, when we come to market it is eight cents a mile. Those of you who have a hard time calculating what that means in the average consumer environment we're in in the U.S. 20 miles per gallon that's a buck 50, a buck 60 a gallon. That's cheaper than today's gasoline, even in the U.S. In Europe where taxes are in place, that's the equivalent to a minus 60 dollar barrel. But e-miles follow Moore's Law. They go from eight cents a mile in 2010, to four cents a mile in 2015, to two cents a mile by 2020. Why? Because batteries life cycle improve -- a bit of improvement on energy density, which reduces the price. And these prices are actually with clean electrons. We do not use any electrons that come from coal. So in a sense this is an absolute zero carbon, zero fossil fuel, electric mile, at two cents a mile by 2020. Now even if we get to 40 miles per gallon by 2020, which is our desire. Imagine only 40 miles per gallon cars would be on the road. That is an 80 cent gallon. An 80 cent gallon means, if the entire Pacific would convert to crude oil, and we'd let any oil company bring it out and refine it, they still can't compete with two cents a mile. That's a new economic factor, which is fascinating to most people.

Now this would have been a wonderful paper. That's how I solved it in my head. It was a white paper I handed out to governments. And some governments told me that it's fascinating that the younger generation actually things about these things. (Laughter) Until I got to the true young global leader, Shimon Peres, President of Israel. And he ran a beautiful manipulation on me. First he let me go to the prime minister of the country. Who told me, if you can find the money you need for this network, 200 million dollars, and if you can find a car company that will build that car in mass volume, in two million cars. That's what we needed in Israel. I'll give you country to invest the 200 million in to. Peres thought that was a great idea.

So we went out, and we looked at all the car companies. We sent letters to all the car companies. Three of them never showed up. One of them asked us if we would stay with hybrids and they would give us a discount. But one of them Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan, when asked about hybrids said something very fascinating. He said hybrids are like mermaids. When you want a fish you get woman and when you need a woman you get a fish. (Laughter) And Ghosn came up and said, "I have the car, Mr. Peres, I will build you the cars." And actually true to form, Renault has put a billion and a half dollars in building nine different types of cars that fit this kind of model that will come into the market in mass volume -- mass volume being the first year, 100 thousand cars. It's the first mass volume electric car, zero emission electric car, in the market. I was running, as Chris said, to be the CEO of a large software company called SAP And then Peres said, "Well won't you run this project?" And I said, "I'm ready for CEO" And he said, "Oh no no no no no. You have to explain to me what is more important than saving your country and saving the world, that you would go and do?"

And I had to quit and come and do this thing called A Better Place. We then decided to scale it up. We went to other countries. As I said we went to Denmark. And Denmark set this beautiful policy called the IQ test. It's inversely proportional to taxes. They put 180 percent tax on gasoline cars and zero tax on zero emission cars. So if you want to buy a gasoline car in Denmark it costs you about 60,000 Euros. If you buy our car it's about 20,000 Euros. If you fail the IQ test they ask you to leave the country. (Laughter)

We then were sort of coined as the guys who run only in small islands. I know most people don't think of Israel as a small island. But Israel is an island. It's a transportation island. If your car is driving outside Israel it's been stolen. (Laughter) If you're thinking about it in terms of islands, we decided to go to the biggest island that we could find. And that was Australia. The third country we announced was Australia. It's got three centers -- in Brisbane, in Melbourne, in Sydney -- and one freeway, one electric freeway that connects them. The next island was not too hard to find, and that was Hawaii. We decided to come into the U.S. and pick the two best places -- the one where you didn't need any range extension. Hawaii you can drive around the island on one battery. And if you really have a long day you can switch, and keep on driving around the island.

The second one was the San Francisco Bay Area where Gavin Newsom created a beautiful policy across all the mayors. He decided that he's going to take over the state, unofficially, and then officially. And then created this beautiful Region One policy. In the San Fransisco Bay Area not only do you have the highest concentration of Priuses, but you also have the perfect range extender. It's called the other car. As we stared scaling it up we looked at what is the problem to come up to the U.S.? Why is this a big issue? And the most fascinating thing we've learned when you have small problems on the individual level, like the price of gasoline to drive every morning. You don't notice it, but when the aggregate comes up you're dead. Alright?

So the price of oil, much like lots of other curves that we've seen, goes along a depletion curve. The foundation of this curve is that we keep losing the wells that are close to the ground. And we keep getting wells that are farther away from the ground. It becomes more and more and more expensive to dig them out. You think, well it's been up, it's been down, its been up, it's going to keep on going up and down. Here is the problem: at 147 dollars a barrel, which we were in six months ago, the U.S. spent a ton of money to get oil. Then we lost our economy and we went back down to 47. Sometimes it's 40 sometimes it's 50. Now we're running a stimulus package. It's called the trillion dollar stimulus package. We're going to revive the economy. Hopefully it happens between now and 2015, somewhere in that space. What happens when the economy recovers? By 2015 we would have had at least 250 million new cars even at the pace we're going at right now. That's another 30 percent demand on oil. That is another 25 million barrels a day. That's all the U.S. usage today. In other words at some point when we've recovered we go up to the peak. And then we do the OPEC stimulus package also known as 200 dollars a barrel. We take our money and we give it away. You know what happens at that point? We go back down. It's going to go up and down. And the downs are going to be much longer and the ups are going to be much shorter.

And that's the difference between problems that are additive, like CO2, which we go slowly up and then we tip, and problems that are depletive, which we lose what we have, which oscillate, and they oscillate until we lose everything we've got. We actually looked at what the answer would be. Right? Remember in the campaign, one million hybrid cars by 2015. That is 0.5 percent of the U.S. oil consumption. That is oh point oh well percent of the rest of the world. That won't do much difference.

We looked at an MIT study: ten million electric cars on the global roads. Ten million out of 500 million we will add between now and then. That is the most pessimistic number you can have. It's also the most optimistic number because it means we will scale this industry from 100 thousand cars is 2011, to 10 million cars by 2016 -- 100 x growth in less than five years. You have to remember that the world today is bringing in so many cars. We have 10 million cars by region. That's an enormous amount of cars.

China is adding those cars -- India, Russia, Brazil. We have all these regions. Europe has solved it. They just put tax on gasoline. They'll be the first in line to get off because their prices are high. China solves it by an edict. At some point they'll just declare that no gasoline car will come into a city. And that will be it. The Indians don't even understand why we think of it as a problem because most people in India fill two or three gallons every time. For them to get a battery that goes 120 miles is an extension on range, not a reduction in range. We're the only ones who don't have the price set right. We don't have the industry set right. We don't have any incentive to go and resolve it across the U.S.

Now where is the car industry on that? Very interesting. The car industry has been focused just on themselves. They basically looked at it and said, " Car 1.0 we'll solve everything within the car itself." No infrastructure, no problem. We forgot about the entire chain around us. All this stuff that happens around. We are looking at the emergence of a car 2.0 -- a whole new market, a whole new business model. The business model in which the money that is actually coming in, to drive the car, the minutes, the miles if you want, that you are all familiar with, subsidize the price of the car, just like cellphones. You'll pay for the miles. And some of it will go back to the car maker. Some of it will go back to your own pocket. But our cars are actually going to be cheaper than gasoline cars.

You're looking at a world where cars are matched with windmills. In Denmark, we will drive all the cars in Denmark from windmills, not from oil. In Israel, we've asked to put a solar farm in the south of Israel. And people said, "Oh that's a very very large space that you're asking for." And we said, "What if we had proven that in the same space we found oil for the country for the next hundred years?" And they said, "We tried. There isn't any." We said, "No no, but what if we prove it?" And they said, "Well you can dig." And we decided to dig up, instead of digging down. These are perfect matches to one another.

Now all you need is about 10 percent of the electricity generated. Think of it as a project that spans over about 10 years. That's one percent a year. Now when we're looking at solving big problems, we need to start thinking in two numbers. And those are not 20 percent in 2020. The two numbers are zero, as in zero footprint or zero oil and scale it infinity. And when we go to COP15 at the end of this year we can't stop thinking of padding CO2. We have to start thinking about giving kickers to countries who are willing to go to this kind of scale.

One car emits four tons. And actually 700 and change million cars today emit 2.8 billion tons of CO2. That's in the additive, about 25 percent of our problem. Cars and trucks add up to about 25 percent of the world's CO2 emissions. We have to come and attack this problem with a focus, with an effort that actually says, we're going to go to zero before the world ends. I actually shared that with some legislators here in the U.S. I shared it with a gentleman called Bobby Kennedy Jr., who is one of my idols. I told him one of the reasons that his uncle was remembered is because he said we're going to send a man to the moon and we'll do it by the end of the decade. We didn't say we're going to send a man 20 percent to the moon. And there will be about a 20 percent chance we'll recover him. (Laughter)

He actually shared with me another story, which is from about 200 years ago. 200 years ago, in Parliament, in Great Britain, there was a long argument over economy versus morality. 25 percent, just like 25 percent emissions today, comes from cars. 25 percent of their energy for the entire industrial world in the U.K. came from a source of energy that was immoral: human slaves. And there was an argument. Should we stop using slaves? And what would it do to our economy? And people said, "Well we need to take time to do it. Let's not do it immediately. Maybe we free the kids and keep the slaves. And after a month of arguments they decided to stop slavery. And the industrial revolution started within less than one year. And the U.K. had 100 years of economic growth. We have to make the right moral decision. We have to make it immediately. We need to have presidential leadership just like we had in Israel that said we will end oil. And we need to do it not within 20 years or 50 years, but within this presidential term because if we don't, we will lose our economy, right after we'd lost our morality.

Thank you all very much. (Applause)