Hans Rosling :神奇洗衣机

=========================
http://dotsub.com/view/a247b699-3484-42cb-950c-e404fce41245
Hans Rosling and the magic washing machine
Hans Rosling :神奇洗衣机
我只有四岁时 我看到我妈 在她一生中第一次使用一台洗衣机。 那对我妈来说是非常棒的一天。 我父母已经数年存钱 才得以买到那台洗衣机。 第一天它被使用时， 甚至邀请了奶奶来 看这洗衣机。 奶奶更加激动。 在她一生中 她一直用木柴烧热水， 然后用手洗 七个孩子的衣服。 而现在她将目睹 电器来洗衣服。
我妈小心翼翼地打开洗衣机门， 她把衣服 放进洗衣机， 就像这样。 然后，当她关上门时， 奶奶说，“不，不。 让我来按按钮。” 奶奶按了按钮， 她说，“哦，棒极了。 我想看这个。给我一把椅子。 给我一把椅子。我想看这洗衣机。” 她坐在洗衣机前， 看了整个洗衣过程。 她对此非常着迷。 对我奶奶而言， 洗衣机就是个奇迹。
今天，在瑞典和其他富有国家， 人们在使用 很多各种各样的机器。 瞧瞧，家里满是机器； 我甚至都叫不上它们的名字来。 当他们想要去旅行， 他们也会使用飞行器 它能承载他们到遥远的目的地。 在世界上，当然还有许多人们 他们还用火烧热水， 用火来做饭。 有时他们甚至没有足够的食物。 他们生活在贫困线以下。 20亿人类同胞 生活在每天少于2美元的贫困线下。 那边是最富有的人们-- 有10亿人口-- 他们生活在我所谓的航空线之上， 因为他们每天消费 超过80美元。
但这只是10亿，20亿，30亿人口， 显然地，世界上共有70亿人口， 所以这必定是10，20，30，40亿更多的人口， 他们生活在贫困线和航空线之间。 他们有电器， 但问题是，多少人会有洗衣机？ 我已经细查了市场数据， 事实上，我发现 洗衣机已经覆盖了低于航空线之下的人们， 目前另外10亿人生活在那组 他们生活在洗衣机线之上。 （笑声） 他们的消费每天超过40美元。 那么20亿人有了洗衣机。
剩下的50亿人， 他们怎样洗衣服？ 或者更加准确地说， 世上多数女性是怎样洗衣服？ 因为洗衣服对于女性来说还是件苦差事。 她们像这样洗衣服：用手。 这洗衣服是一个艰苦耗时的工作， 每周她们不得不数个小时用来洗衣服。 有时她们也要从很远的地方抬水 回家洗衣服。 或者她们得带上衣服去到很远的小河边。 她们都想要洗衣机。 她们不想花费她们一生中大部分时间 来做这个艰苦工作 却有如此低的生产力。 她们的愿望和 我奶奶的愿望并无二致。 看这照片，在瑞典两代人以前-- 从河边取水， 用木柴烧水，像那样手洗。 她们完全想要同样的洗衣机。
但当我给关注环保的学生讲课时， 他们告诉我，“不，不会世上的每个人都有汽车和洗衣机。” 我们怎能告诉这位妇女 她将不会拥有一台洗衣机呢？ 然后我问我的学生， 我一直问他们--在过去2年我一直问， “你们当中谁不使用汽车？” 他们中一些人自豪地高举起手 说，“我不使用汽车。” 然后我提出了相当难的问题： “你们当中谁会 手洗你们的牛仔裤和床单？” 没人再举起手。 甚至绿色运动中的中坚人士 也使用洗衣机。
（笑声）
那么随之而来的是每个人使用洗衣机 大家认为别人不会不使用洗衣机；这有什么特别的吗？ 我不得不做了有关全球能源使用的一个分析。 我们在这看到。 看这个，这上面有70亿人口 航空线的人口，洗衣机线的人口， 电灯泡线的人口和用火烧水贫穷线的人口 这一个单位 是指化石燃料的一个能源单位-- 如石油，煤炭或者汽油。 这也是全球大多数电器和能源所必需的燃料。 全世界使用了12单位能源， 最富有的10亿人，他们使用了其中六个单位能源。 世界人口的七分之一用了一半的能源。 这些有洗衣机的人， 但他们不是拥有满屋子各类的电器， 他们使用2个单位能源。 这组人使用3个单位能源，每10亿人用1个单位能源。 他们也有了电器。 在那边，他们甚至都用不到1个单位能源。 这总共是12个单位能源。
但主要的关注 对于环保感兴趣的学生来说--他们是对的-- 是关于未来。 趋势是什么？如果我们只是延伸这趋势， 不带有任何实际高级分析，到2050年， 增加能源使用的是2件事。 第一，人口增长。 第二，经济增长。 人口增长会主要发生在这儿最贫穷的人们身上， 因为他们儿童死亡率很高 她们每个妇女才会有很多小孩。 因此我们会额外有20亿人口， 但这不会多少改变能源使用。
接下来发生的是经济增长。 在新兴经济体中这儿最强的经济体-- 我称他们为“新东方”-- 他们会跨越到航空线。 “Wopp！好极了”他们会说。 他们会开始使用如同旧西方所消耗的同等量能源。 这些人他们想要洗衣机。 我告诉你。他们会到这组。 他们会翻倍他们的能源使用量。 我希望穷苦的人们会用上电灯泡。 他们家庭会有2个孩子，这没有使人口增长率止步。 但总能源消耗 会增加到22个单位。 这22单位里 还是最有钱的人使用多数能源。 那么需要做什么呢？ 因为 气候变化的危险可能性很高是真的。 这是真的。 当然他们必须在能源上更高效节能。 他们必须在某种意义上要改变习惯。 他们也必须开始开发绿色能源， 越来越多的绿色能源。 但除非他们中每个人有和别组使用同等少的能源消耗时， 他们才可以给别组人提意见-- 什么该做，什么不该做。 （掌声） 这儿我们到处能得到更多绿色能源。
这也是我们所希望发生的事。 在未来这是个实实在在的挑战。 但我能向你保证这个在里约热内卢贫民窟的女性， 她想要洗衣机。 她非常高兴，她们的能源部长 会给每一个人供电-- 以致于高兴地甚至给她投票。 她就是迪尔玛·罗塞夫， 她当选为 全球最大的民主国家之一巴西的总统-- 从能源部长升为总统。 如果你给予民主， 人们就会为洗衣机选你。 他们喜爱洗衣机。
这洗衣机的神奇功能是什么呢？ 我妈在那非常有意义的第一天就解释了 这洗衣机的神奇之处。 她说，“现在汉斯， 我们要洗衣服； 这洗衣机会派上用场。 现在我们可以去图书馆了。” 因为这就是神奇之处： 你洗衣服， 从洗衣机里你会得到什么呢？ 从那里你得到了一些书， 儿童书。 我妈妈有时间就给我读书。 她喜欢这个。我有了“ABC”基础丛书。 这就是我职业生涯作为一个教授的开始， 当我妈有时给我念书时。 她自己也有书读。 她计划学习英语 作为一种外语来学习。 然后她读许多小说， 这儿有各种各样的小说。 我们的确真地爱上了这个洗衣机。
我们我妈和我想说的是， “感谢工业化。 感谢钢铁厂。 感谢发电站。 感谢化学加工工业 给予我们时间用来阅读书本。”
十分感谢。
（掌声）


-----------------------
I was only four years old when I saw my mother load a washing machine for the very first time in her life. That was a great day for my mother. My mother and father had been saving money for years to be able to buy that machine. And the first day it was going to be used, even Grandma was invited to see the machine. And Grandma was even more excited. Throughout her life she had been heating water with firewood, and she had hand washed laundry for seven children. And now she was going to watch electricity do that work.

My mother carefully opened the door, and she loaded the laundry into the machine, like this. And then, when she closed the door, Grandma said, "No, no, no, no. Let me, let me push the button." And Grandma pushed the button, and she said, "Oh, fantastic. I want to see this. Give me a chair. Give me a chair. I want to see it." And she sat down in front of the machine, and she watched the entire washing program. She was mesmerized. To my grandmother, the washing machine was a miracle.

Today, in Sweden and other rich countries, people are using so many different machines. Look, the homes are full of machines; I can't even name them all. And they also, when they want to travel, they use flying machines that can take them to remote destinations. And yet, in the world, there are so many people who still heat the water on fire, and they cook their food on fire. Sometimes they don't even have enough food. And they live below the poverty line. There are two billion fellow human beings who live on less than two dollars a day. And the richest people over there -- there's one billion people -- and they live above what I call the air line, because they spend more than $80 a day on their consumption.

But this is just one, two, three billion people, and obviously there are seven billion people in the world, so there must be one, two, three, four billion people more, who live in between the poverty and the air line. They have electricity, but the question is, how many have washing machines? I've done the scrutiny of market data, and I've found that, indeed, the washing machine has penetrated below the air line, and today there's an additional one billion people out there who live above the wash line. (Laughter) And they consume more than $40 per day. So two billion have access to washing machines.

And the remaining five billion, how do they wash? Or, to be more precise, how do most of the women in the world wash? Because it remains hard work for women to wash. They wash like this: by hand. It's a hard, time-consuming labor, which they have to do for hours every week. And sometimes they also have to bring water from far away to do the laundry at home. Or they have to bring the laundry away to a stream far off. And they want the washing machine. They don't want to spend such a large part of their life doing this hard work with so relatively low productivity. And there's nothing different in their wish than it was for my grandma. Look here, two generations ago in Sweden -- picking water from the stream, heating with firework and washing like that. They want the washing machine in exactly the same way.

But when I lecture to environmentally-concerned students, they tell me, "No, everybody in the world cannot have cars and washing machines." How can we tell this woman that she ain't going to have a washing machine? And then I ask my students, I've asked them -- over the last two years I've asked, "How many of you doesn't use a car?" And some of them proudly raise their hand and say, "I don't use a car." And then I put the really tough question: "How many of you hand wash your jeans and your bed sheets?" And no one raised their hand. Even the hardcore in the green movement use washing machines.

(Laughter)

So how come [this is] something that everyone uses and they think others will not stop it; what is special with this? I had to do an analysis about the energy used in the world. Here we are. Look here, you see the seven billion people up there: the air people, the wash people, the bulb people and the fire people. One unit like this is an energy unit of fossil fuel -- oil, coal or gas. That's what most of electricity and the energy in the world is. And it's 12 units used in the entire world, and the richest one billion, they use six of them. Half of the energy is used by one seventh of the world's population. And these ones who have washing machines, but not a house full of other machines, they use two. This group uses three, one each. And they also have electricity. And over there they don't even use one each. That makes 12 of them.

But the main concern for the environmentally-interested students -- and they are right -- is about the future. What are the trends? If we just prolong the trends, without any real advanced analysis, to 2050, there are two things that can increase the energy use. First, population growth. Second, economic growth. Population growth will mainly occur among the poorest people here, because they have high child mortality and they have many children per woman. And [with] that you will get two extra, but that won't change the energy use very much.

What will happen is economic growth. The best of here in the emerging economies -- I call them the New East -- they will jump the air line. "Wopp!" they will say. And they will start to use as much as the Old West are doing already. And these people, they want the washing machine. I told you. They'll go there. And they will double their energy use. And we hope that the poor people will get into the electric light. And they'll get a two child family without a stop in population growth. But the total energy consumption will increase to 22 units. And these 22 units still the richest people use most of it. So what needs to be done? Because the risk, the high probability of climate change is real. It's real. Of course they must be more energy efficient. They must change behavior in some way. They must also start to produce green energy, much more green energy. But until they have the same energy consumption per person, they shouldn't give advice to others -- what to do and what not to do. (Applause) Here we can get more green energy all over.

This is what we hope may happen. It's a real challenge in the future. But I can assure you that this woman in the favela in Rio, she wants a washing machine. She's very happy about her minister of energy that provided electricity to everyone -- so happy that she even voted for her. And she became Dilma Rousseff, the president elect of one of the biggest democracies in the world -- moving from minister of energy to president. If you have democracy, people will vote for washing machines. They love them.

And what's the magic with them? My mother explained the magic with this machine the very, very first day. She said, "Now Hans, we have loaded the laundry; the machine will make the work. And now we can go to the library." Because this is the magic: you load the laundry, and what do you get out of the machine? You get books out of the machines, children's books. And mother got time to read for me. She loved this. I got the "ABC." This is where I started my career as a professor, when my mother had time to read for me. And she also got books for herself. She managed to study English and learn that as a foreign language. And she read so many novels, so many different novels here. And we really, we really loved this machine.

And what we said, my mother and me, "Thank you industrialization. Thank you steel mill. Thank you power station. And thank you chemical processing industry that gave us time to read books."

Thank you very much.

(Applause)