Newsy2011.4.27---2016年中国大经济体

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Newsy2011.4.27---2016年中国大经济体
IMF Expects China to be Largest Economy by 2016
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Mark your calendar for 2016. That’s when the International Monetary Fund expects America to surrender its leading position as world’s largest economy to China.
It was Marketwatch’s Brett Arends who discovered the grim prediction buried deep in an IMF report.
“When you talk to a lot of Wall Street economists and talking heads, they will tell you, ‘Oh, it’s decades away’ and all that stuff. Nonsense. It is five years’ time. 2016. That is the date put out by the IMF.”
In the original article, Arends warns...
“Most people aren’t prepared for this. They aren’t even aware it’s that close. … The most bearish will put the figure in the mid-2020s. But they’re miscounting. They’re only comparing the gross domestic products of the two countries using current exchange rates.”
Arends explains using exchange rates is not a reliable basis for predictions, because they change easily and governments can manipulate them. Instead, the IMF compared the two country’s “purchasing power parities” or PPPs, which measures how much someone’s income can buy in a given economy.
Looking at the current trends, IMF concludes China’s rising PPP will top that of the US.
But a blogger for The Financial Times points out IMF has put out conflicting reports based on what numbers they analyze.
“Statistics are notoriously slippery things… Measured using PPP, China will overtake the US ... by 2016... Measured in US dollars at current prices, the US retains a clear lead.”
The International Business Times denies the legitimacy of the recent report saying...
“The IMF and World Bank’s projections ... shouldn’t be trusted at all. Economists at institutions like the IMF and World Bank have little imagination and assume that current conditions will continue indefinitely. Their ‘projections’ should be more aptly named ‘adjusted extrapolations’.”
CNN asks what slipping to the second place would mean for the US. Is this only about bragging rights?
CNN’s Zain Verjee explains it would have serious implications for everyday Americans.
“For ordinary people though, Carol, one of the issues is going to be jobs. You know, if the US economy grows around 2 percent, less people are going to want to invest their money in the US. They’re going to where the growth is.”
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Transcript by Newsy.
国际货币基金组织预计，中国将在2016年大经济体
你看从Newsy多源商务视频新闻的解读。
马克您的2016年日历。这时候，国际货币基金组织预计美国投降作为世界上最大的经济，中国的领先地位。
据Marketwatch的布雷特阿兹谁发现了埋在一个严峻的预测国际货币基金组织的报告深刻。
“当你跟华尔街的经济学家和名嘴很多，他们会告诉你，'噢，这是几十年的距离'和所有的东西。胡说。这是五年的时间。 2016年。这是国际货币基金组织提出了日期。“
在原来的文章中，阿兹警告...
“大多数人都没有为此做好了准备。他们甚至不知道它的这个机会。 ...最悲观将会把中期的21世纪20年代的数字。但他们miscounting。他们只比较两个国家目前的汇率使用本地产品。“
阿兹介绍如何使用的汇率是不是一个可靠的预测的基础，因为他们轻易改变和政府可以操纵他们。相反，国际货币基金相比，这两个国家的“购买力平价”或购买力平价衡量多少人的收入能买一个给定的经济。
在目前的趋势来看，国际货币基金组织总结中国的崛起PPP将顶部的美国。
但对于金融时报指出，国际货币基金组织Blogger已经推出了他们对什么是数的矛盾分析报告。
“统计是众所周知的事情...湿滑使用PPP衡量，中国将超过美国... 2016年...按美元计算的按当年价格计算，美国保留了明显的领先优势。“
国际商业时报否认了最近报告说，合法性...
“基金组织和世界银行的预测...应该不被信任的。在诸如国际货币基金组织和世界银行等机构的经济学家有一点幻想，以为目前的情况将继续下去。他们的预测，应该更恰当地命名为'调整推断'。“
美国有线电视新闻网问什​​么下滑至第二位将意味着美国。这是只有吹牛的权利？
CNN的扎因Verjee解释这会严重影响美国人的日常生活。
“虽然对于普通百姓，卡罗尔，对这些问题的人会是提供就业机会。你知道，如果美国经济增长约百分之二，少人会想在美国投资的钱。他们要去的地方的增长。“
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