Talks at Google2014.7.2---Mebane Faber:如何识别泡沫，避免市场崩溃

Talks at Google2014.7.2---Mebane Faber:如何识别泡沫，避免市场崩溃

發佈日期：2014年7月2日

Investment bubbles and speculative manias have existed for as long as humans have been involved in markets. Is it possible for investors to identify emerging bubbles and then profit from their inflation? Likewise, can investors avoid the bursting of these bubbles, and the extreme volatility and losses found in their aftermath to survive to invest another day? Over 70 years ago, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd proposed valuing stocks with earnings smoothed across multiple years. Robert Shiller later popularized this method with his version of the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio in the late 1990s and correctly issued a timely warning of poor stock returns to follow in the coming years. We apply this valuation metric across more than 40 foreign markets and find it both practical and useful. Indeed, we witness even greater examples of bubbles and busts abroad than in the United States. We then create a trading system to build global stock portfolios, and find significant outperformance by selecting markets based on relative and absolute valuation.

Meb will also speak about 13-f research, and "hacking the hedge funds".

Mr. Faber is a co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management. Faber is the manager of Cambria's ETFs, separate accounts and private investment funds for accredited investors. Mr. Faber has authored numerous white papers and three books: Shareholder Yield, The Ivy Portfolio, and Global Value. He is a frequent speaker and writer on investment strategies and has been featured in Barron's, The New York Times, and The New Yorker. Mr. Faber graduated from the University of Virginia with a double major in Engineering Science and Biology.

发布日期：2014年7月2日
投资泡沫和投机狂热已经存在，只要人类一直在参与市场。是否有可能为投资者确定新出现的泡沫，然后从利润的通货膨胀？同样，投资者可避免这些泡沫的破灭，以及极端的波动性和在他们之后发现损失求生存，以投入新的一天？ 70多年前，本杰明·格雷厄姆和戴维·多德提出了盈利跨越多个年度平滑估值的股票。罗伯特·希勒后推广这种方法与他的版本在90年代末的周期性调整价格对盈利（CAPE）的比例和正确的股票发行可怜的及时报警返回在未来几年跟随。我们将这个估值指标在超过40个外国市场，并发现它兼具实用和有用。事实上，我们看到泡沫和萧条国外比在美国更大的例子。然后，我们创建一个交易系统来构建全球股票投资组合，并通过选择基于相对和绝对估值市场找到显著跑赢大市。