TestTube News2016.4.10---世界經濟的最大威脅？

TestTube News2016.4.10---世界經濟的最大威脅？




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0:04In early 2016, the Economist Intelligence Unit released a breakdown of their analysis 0:09of the biggest threats to the global economy. One of the top threats was actually the possible 0:13election of Donald Trump as president. They predict that his opposition to free trade 0:18and criticism of China and Mexico, which are massive trade partners, poses significant 0:22risk to the economy. But Trump is only sixth on the list, so we wanted to know, what are 0:27the world’s biggest economic threats? 0:29Well, the health of the economy is crucial to stability around the world. Several leading 0:34threats are centered around the European Union. The EIU notes that Greece’s ongoing debt 0:39crisis might be stemmed by the latest austerity measures and bailout. However, the risk of 0:43Greece refusing to abide by the restrictions, and eventually leaving the EU could create 0:48a world of trouble for the international markets. This “Grexit” is especially feared because 0:54it would destabilize the surrounding countries, leading to the third biggest threat: a breakup 0:58of the EU. 0:59In recent years, the EU has been struggling to maintain cohesion. With more than a million

1:04migrants arriving in Europe, a continued recession following the 2008 global banking crisis, 1:09and terror attacks in Paris, the EU is in trouble. Many parties calling for a breakup 1:14of the EU, or stricter borders in the “free travel Schengen zone” have been seeing increased 1:20popularity. Even the United Kingdom is gearing up for a referendum to leave the European 1:25Union, sparking fears that other countries may follow. A breakup of the EU would be disastrous 1:30for a huge number of trade agreements and established economic treaties. This could 1:34possibly plunge Europe into an even deeper financial crisis, thus destabilizing global 1:39markets. 1:40The second biggest threat to the economy isn’t actually economic at all. Russia’s military 1:44intervention in Syria and the annexation of Crimea has many worried about a new Cold War 1:49between The US and Russia. This competitive political fight complicates a number of existing 1:54organizations like NATO and the G7, and implies an increase in defense spending on all sides.

2:00This takes away from goals like fighting ISIS and global warming, and could easily destabilize 2:05the world economy. 2:06But according to the EIU, the single biggest threat to the global economy is China. China 2:11has been growing at a massive and rapid pace, but in recent years the level of growth has 2:15been called clearly unsustainable. Despite efforts to manipulate their currency and markets, 2:20the renminbi currency is still relatively weak, and their economy has a huge amount 2:24of unrecoverable debt. China’s role as a manufacturing and commodity trading leader 2:29means that a slump for them is a slump for consumers and businesses worldwide. 2:34Although there are a lot of things to be afraid of, the EU, China, and Russia pose the biggest 2:38threats to the stability of the global economy. What’s worse is that all of these scenarios 2:42are ranked highly because they are also the most likely to occur. By comparison, a Trump 2:47presidency is only rated as “moderately probable”. But if the EU falls apart, China’s 2:53economy keeps dropping, and a new Cold War emerges, Trump may just be the least of anyone’s 2:58problems. 2:58If you’re a lover of science who wants to go beyond the usual scope and jump into comprehensive 3:03conversations, join me on TestTube Plus. We talk about things like how movies trick our 3:10brains to see movement. Thanks for watching Test Tube News, don’t forget to like and subscribe for new videos every day.


0:04在2016年年初，经济学人信息部发布了他们的分析的故障 0:09对全球经济的最大威胁。一个顶级的威胁实际上是可能的 0:13唐纳德·特朗普的当选总统。他们预测，他反对自由贸易 0:18与中国和墨西哥，这是巨大的贸易伙伴的批评，造成显著 0:22风险对经济的。但特朗普只是第六就行了，所以我们想知道，是什么 0:27世界上最大的经济威胁？ 0:29那么，经济的健康是世界各地的稳定至关重要。几家领先 0:34威胁周围欧盟居中。该EIU指出，希腊目前的债务 0:39危机可能通过最新紧缩措施和救市被制止。然而，风险 0:43希腊拒绝了限制遵守，并最终离开欧盟可以创建 0:48世界对国际市场的麻烦。这种“Grexit”特别担心，因为 0:54它会动摇周边国家，导致第三大威胁：分手 0:58欧盟。 0:59近年来，欧盟一直在努力保持凝聚力。拥有超过一百万

1:04抵达欧洲移民，继2008年全球金融危机有持续的经济衰退， 1:09并在巴黎的恐怖袭击，欧盟陷入困境。多方呼吁分手 1:14欧盟，或者在“免费旅游申根区”更严格的边界已经看到增加 1:20人气。甚至英国正在加紧公投离开欧洲 1:25联盟，激起其他国家可能遵循的担忧。欧盟的解体将是灾难性的 1:30对于贸易协定和建立了经济条约的数量巨大。这可能 1:34可能暴跌欧洲陷入更深的金融危机，从而破坏稳定的全球 1:39市场。 1:40对经济的第二个最大的威胁不是实际经济的。俄罗斯军事 1:44干预叙利亚和克里米亚兼并有许多担心新的冷战 1:49美国和俄罗斯之间。这种竞争的政治斗争变得复杂了许多现有 1:54组织如北约和G7，并暗示在各方面增加国防开支。

2:00这从喜欢格斗ISIS和全球变暖的目标带走，并可以很容易地破坏 2:05世界经济。 2:06但根据EIU，对全球经济的一个最大的威胁是中国。中国 2:11在有一个巨大的，快速的速度增长，但近几年的增长水平有 2:15被称为显然难以为继。尽管努力操纵其货币和市场， 2:20人民币汇率仍然比较薄弱，他们的经济有巨大的量 2:24不可恢复的债务。中国作为制造业和商品交易的领导者角色 2:29意味着他们的暴跌是全球消费者和企业不景气。 2:34虽然有很多东西怕，欧盟，中国和俄罗斯构成最大 2:38全球经济的稳定威胁。更糟糕的是所有这些场景 2:42均排名高，因为他们也是最有可能发生。通过比较，一个王牌 2:47总统只能评定为“中度可能”。但是，如果欧盟分崩离析，中国的 2:53经济持续下探，以及新冷战的出现，特朗普可能只是最少的任何人的 2:58问题。 2:58如果你是科学爱好者谁想要超越通常的范围，并跳进综合 3:03交谈中，和我一起上使用TestTube加。我们谈论的事情像电影如何欺骗我们的 3:10大脑看动静。感谢收看试管新闻，不要忘了喜欢每天认购新影片。