Richard Sears准备终结石油时代

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Richard Sears准备终结石油时代
下面的几分钟，我们将来谈论能源。 并且，这将是一次有点与众不同的演讲。 我将讲述一个关于能源的故事， 就先从石油开始好了。 我的演说涵盖了能源的多个方面， 但从石油开始讲比较好。 其中一个原因是，它的作用很了不起。 用八个左右的碳原子 加上二十个氢原子 以正确的方式组合， 你就可以得到这瓶神奇的液体, 它有巨大的能量，也很容易就可以提炼 出非常实用的产品和燃料。 这的确是好东西。 现在，就我们所知，在世界上 还有很多石油资源。
这是我的小袖珍地图， 上面标示了所有石油分布的地方。 你们也可以看比较大的这一张。 就是这样，这些就是世界上石油的分布。 地质学者们对此石油储存有很明确想法。 现在全世界大约还有100万亿加仑的 原生油 还可以继续被开发和提炼。 现在，关于石油的一个说法， 我们也许不可能会用尽它并说， “好吧，石油没准会永远存在， 因为，还有很多石油储存。” 但更多关于此的说法却相反。 顺便说一下，如果你认为你远离一些石油储存的勘测地点， 就在离我们这现场有1000米的地方 就是全世界最大石油生产地之一。 如果你有兴趣可以找我谈谈。我可以为你提供一些资料。
这也只是石油的一部分事实，还有很多很多。 但究竟石油是什么？在能源体系石油起什么作用？ 这是一张150年来石油在能源体系的比重图， 也就是说，石油在这150年时间里，大多数是我们能源体系 的主宰者。 现在，我要告诉各位一个小秘密。 在过去25年， 石油在全球能源体系中所占的比重 正在持续下降。 在1985年石油的比重达到高峰， 那时石油在全球能源供应体系中高达50%。 现在，石油占35%。 这比重还在下降， 我相信石油所占比重还会继续下降。 在2007年，美国的汽油消费可能到达峰值 并且开始呈下降趋势。
因此石油重要性 正在逐年下降， 大概25年前， 石油峰值第一次出现， 就好比1920年代 的煤炭峰值， 在100年前 的木材峰值。 请看这张非常重要的能源体系发展的图片。 在过去数十年，究竟是什么取代了石油的地位呢？ 开始时是用大量天然气 和极少的核能。 在未来会发生什么呢？ 好吧，我超前想未来数十年 出现天然气峰值， 甚至是， 可再生能源的峰值。
现在，我将告诉你们关于此图片另一个非常重要的 事。 我不是说全球能源使用量没有增加， 事实上是在增加的。 那又是另外一回事，来和我一起谈论这话题。 我们会谈到一些具体细节。 但是这有一个非常关键讯息。 在过去200年历史中， 200多年来，我们一直在系统地使 我们能源体系脱碳。 日复一日， 年复一年， 数十年来，甚至数个世纪以来， 全球能源体系正逐渐地大力地在转化成低碳能源体系。 当今我们发展了可再生能源， 在未来随着它继续发展， 在本世纪中叶可能占到30%的能源供应 。 你以为演说到这里就可以结束了吗？ 我们仅用可重复使用的可再生能源来完全代替石油-- 但是我又想，现实中，比这种解决方法肯定要多得多。
接下来的部分-- 让我们展望，2100年甚至更远。 什么才是未来 真正可持续的，无碳的能源？ 好吧，让我们启程小游一下。 我们来到得克萨斯州中部。 这是一块石灰岩。 我在德克萨斯州马布尔福尔斯捡到它。 它大概有4亿年历史。 它只是石灰岩，没什么特别的。 现在看到的是一块粉笔。 我从M.I.T(麻省理工学院)拿来的。它的历史比较短。 粉笔比起这石灰岩就有所不同。你可以看得出来。 我们不会用粉笔来搞建筑， 我们也不会在一堂讲课中用石灰岩在黑板上写字。 是嘛，它们的确不同。不是的，它们没什么截然不同。 就是没有不同，它们是同样的材料， 碳酸钙，同样的碳酸钙。 有所区别的是分子排序的问题。
如果你认为这很神奇， 真正神奇的还在后头。 我们来谈谈在California(加利福尼亚)海岸边的 鲍鱼壳。 现在每年数以万计鲍鱼 自产这种壳。 顺便说一下，没准你也会猜到， 这也是碳酸钙。 鲍鱼壳和这石灰岩 和这粉笔都是同样的材料。 但它们又是完全不同的东西。 这鲍鱼壳比这粉笔要 坚硬数千倍，甚至3000倍。 为什么呢？因为这些不起眼的鲍鱼 能够产出 碳酸钙晶体层 而变成这种美丽的，闪光 的珠母层。 每年中的每一天， 数以万计鲍鱼自产 这种 非常特殊的材料。 这是非常不可思议的材料。 尽管如此，有什么不同呢？ 分子如何排序在一起。
那么，这又与能源有什么关系？ 这是一块煤。 这块煤就好比这块粉笔 一样 有意思。 现在尽管我们经常谈论燃料， 能源载体， 或者是电池或者燃料电池的新材料时 ， 大自然还没提供给我们这么完美的材料， 因为大自然没有这个必要。 之所以这样是因为大自然不会像鲍鱼壳， 除非到现在，只有当这种材料变得很重要， 或许只有生成这种材料， 各物种才会生存下来，大自然才会生成它。 所以让我们思考一下能源的未来， 想象一下 ， 除了煤炭之外， 我们可以制造出替代能源， 只要把分子重新排序，那将会是什么样子？
这就是我要谈的。 石油永远不会用尽， 不是因为我们还有很多石油， 也不是因为我们打算建数不计的风车， 而是因为 数千年前， 人们搞发明， 有想法，创新性，科技。 石器时代的结束 不是取决于人类用完了石头。 （笑声） 而是想法，创新性和科技 使得我们不会用尽石油而终结石油时代。
非常感谢大家。
（掌声）

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Richard Sears: Planning for the end of oil
For the next few minutes, we're going to talk about energy. And it's going to be a bit of a varied talk. I'll try to spin a story about energy, and oil's a convenient starting place. The talk will be broadly about energy, but oil's a good place to start. And one of the reasons is, this is remarkable stuff. You take about eight or so carbon atoms, about 20 hydrogen atoms, you put them together in exactly the right way and you get this marvelous liquid, very energy-dense and very easy to refine into a number of very useful products and fuels. It's great stuff. Now, as far as it goes, there's a lot of oil out there in the world.

Here's my little pocket map of where it's all located. A bigger one for you to look at. But this is it. This is the oil in the world. Geologists have a pretty good idea of where the oil is. This is about 100 trillion gallons of crude oil still to be developed and produced in the world today. Now, that's just one story about oil, and we could end it there and say, "Well, oil's going to last forever because, well, there's just a lot of it." But there's actually more to the story than that. Oh, by the way, if you think you're very far from some of this oil, 1000 meters below where you're all sitting is one of the largest producing oil fields in the world. Come talk to me about it. I'll fill in some of the details if you want.

So that's one of the stories of oil. There's just a lot of it. But what about oil? Where is it in the energy system? Here's a little snapshot of 150 years of oil. And it's been a dominant part of our energy system for most of those 150 years. Now, here's another little secret I'm going to tell you about. For the last 25 years, oil has been playing less and less of a role in global energy systems. There was one kind of peak oil in 1985, when oil represented 50 percent of global energy supply. Now, it's about 35 percent. It's been declining, and I believe it will continue to decline. Gasoline consumption in the U.S. probably peaked in 2007 and is declining.

So oil is playing a less significant role every year. And so, 25 years ago, there was a peak oil just like, in the 1920s, there was a peak coal, and a hundred years before that, there was a peak wood. This is a very important picture of the evolution of energy systems. And what's been taking up the slack in the last few decades? Well, a lot of natural gas and a little bit of nuclear, for starters. And what goes on in the future? Well, I think out ahead of us a few decades is peak gas, and beyond that, peak renewables.

Now, I'll tell you another little very important story about this picture. Now, I'm not pretending that energy use in total isn't increasing, it is. That's another part of the story. Come talk to me about it. We'll fill in some of the details. But there's a very important message here. This is 200 years of history. And for 200 years, we've been systematically decarbonizing our energy system. Energy systems of the world becoming progressively, year on year, decade on decade, century on century, becoming less carbon intense. And that continues into the future with the renewables that we're developing today, reaching maybe 30 percent of primary energy by mid century. Now that might be the end of the story -- Okay, we just replace it all with conventional renewables -- but I think, actually, there's more to the story than that.

And to tell the next part of the story -- and this is looking looking out, say 2100 and beyond. What is the future of truly sustainable, carbon free energy? Well, we have to take a little excursion. And we'll start in central Texas. Here's a piece of limestone. I picked it up outside of Marble Falls, Texas. It's about 400 million years old. And it's just limestone, nothing really special about it. Now, here's a piece of chalk. I picked this up at M.I.T. It's a little younger. And it's different than this limestone. You can see that. You wouldn't build a building out of this stuff, and you wouldn't try to give a lecture and try to write on the chalkboard with this. Yeah, it's very different. No, it's not different. It's not different. It's the same stuff, calcium carbonate, calcium carbonate. What's different, is how the molecules are put together.

Now, if you think that's kind of neat, the story gets really neat right now. Off the coast of California, comes this. It's abalone shell. Now, millions of abalone every year make this shell. Oh, by the way, just in case you weren't already guessing, it's calcium carbonate. It's the same stuff as this and the same stuff as this. But it's not the same stuff; it's different. It's thousands of times, maybe 3,000 times tougher than this. And why? Because the lowly abalone is able to lay down the calcium carbonate crystals in layers, making this beautiful, iridescent mother of pearl. Very specialized material that the abalone self-assembles, millions of abalone, all the time, every day, every year. This is pretty incredible stuff. All the same, what's different? How the molecules are put together.

Now, what does this have to do with energy? Here's a piece of coal. And I'll suggest that this coal is about as exciting as this chalk. Now, whether we're talking about fuels, or energy carriers, or perhaps novel materials for batteries or fuel cells, Nature hasn't every built those perfect materials yet, because nature didn't need to. Nature didn't need to because, unlike the abalone shell, the survival of the species didn't depend on building those materials until maybe now, when it might just matter. So, when we think about the future of energy, imagine, what would it be like if, instead of this, we could build the energy equivalent of this, just by rearranging the molecules differently.

And so that is my story. The oil will never run out. It's not because we have a lot of it. It's not because we're going to build a bajillion windmills. It's because, well, thousands of years ago, people invented ideas, they had ideas, innovations, technology. And the Stone Age ended, not because we ran out of stones. (Laughter) It's ideas, it's innovation, it's technology that will end the age of oil long before we run out of oil.

Thank you very much.

(Applause)