STRATFOR2016.3.26---第二季度預測預覽

STRATFOR2016.3.26---第二季度預測預覽



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0:05our focal point for the second quarter remains on Syria this is where the 0:10Syrian civil war at the European migrant crisis turkeys existential crisis with 0:14the kurds the frozen conflict in Ukraine and Russia standoff with the west 0:18all intersect in a very sticky web of geopolitical conflict and if anyone can 0:24turn a source of conflict into a source of leverage its Russia 0:27over the past quarter Moscow demonstrated that it has the influence 0:31to both escalate and tamp down the level of violence in Syria much like it can in 0:36eastern Ukraine so russia will spend the next three months preparing for a very 0:41big month in July when the europeans are due for a vote on russian sanctions and 0:45when NATO members meet over plans to expand the Western security alliances 0:49footprint on russia's western flank now russia has drawn down its forces in 0:54Syria to shape those negotiations with the west but it has not withdrawn its 0:59forces either russia will maintain levers and strategic theaters as it

1:04tries to shape its negotiation with the west and after showing Europe to stick 1:08in the first quarter by exacerbating the Syrian conflict moscow can now hold out 1:13the carrot their peace talks in syria to try and divide the europeans on 1:17sanctions and tornadoes build-up plans in Europe the challenge that Moscow 1:22faces is that even those Europeans are more amenable to easing economic 1:26pressure on russia like Italy Greece Hungary they would rather use the threat 1:31of breaking a European consensus on russia's compliance with meant to 1:35bargain with Brussels for leniency on budget deficits 8 bailout terms bad bank 1:41deals in the like as we said in the annual forecast the Islamic seats 1:45capabilities and its core territory in Syria and Iraq will be degraded this 1:49year but that actually heightens the terrorist threat and other places 1:52including Turkey in Europe the Islamic State threat along with the migrant 1:57issue will compound the -use existential crisis turkey can also be expected to

2:02leverage the migrant crisis this quarter has little intention of taking hundreds 2:06of thousands of migrants off Europe's hands but it will take advantage of 2:10European desperation to extract a variety of concessions but the 2:14concession that turkey needs most is coalition support for a military move 2:18into northern Syria that's where Kurdish militant forces have steadily expanded 2:22their territorial control with the help from russia but with Russia maintaining 2:27its footprint in Syria Turkey will not try and the coalition allies it needs to 2:31make that move and will need to compensate in other ways to bolster 2:34rebels 2:35northern Syria now while there is ample room for negotiation in this array of 2:39conflict in Eurasia this is not a quarter where we're likely to see major 2:43breakthroughs the europeans will not get a viable deal to manage the migrant 2:48crisis cease-fire temps in Syria will be limited in the end 2:52russia is unlikely to break a European vote on sanctions turkeys are likely to 2:56get the support he needs to make a big push into northern Syria and the 2:59government in kiev is more likely to collapse then make political concessions

3:03in eastern Ukraine to satisfy russia the global economy will not see much relief 3:07either this quarter as the dollar strengthens more strain is put on the 3:11Chinese yuan and more uncertainty send feedback into the global economy 3:14ensuring that the fed tightening cycle will occur at a gradual pace the 3:19European Central Bank's Monetary Policy will help tamp down any flare-ups in the 3:24Eurozone and the British Pound will be under heavy pressure in the lead-up to 3:27the breakfast referendum on June 23rd we believe the referendum will likely 3:32result in a vote to remain in the Union but even then the UK still has a big 3:36trade deficit problem Wayne down the pound more Iranian oil on the market 3:40means continued over supply for the second quarter do not expect Iran to 3:44Courtney to cut or freeze to production the political pressure on refining its 3:48height deliver economic benefits from the nuclear deal in Iran is not going to 3:52put itself at a disadvantage Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies will mean all 3:56watching wait for the market to correct itself later in the year as he has

4:00production levels come down now this is just a snapshot of what we expect in the 4:05next three months so please be sure to check out the full second-quarter 4:09forecast when it publishes on Monday March 28

0:05我们的焦点在第二季度仍然叙利亚这是哪里的 0:10在欧洲移民危机火鸡生存危机与叙利亚内战 0:14库尔德人在乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突冻结与对峙西 0:18所有相交的地缘政治冲突的一个非常棘手的网页，如果任何人都可以 0:24把冲突的根源为杠杆的来源及其俄罗斯 0:27过去一个季度莫斯科表明它的影响 0:31这两个升级等等平息叙利亚的暴力水平喜欢的话可以在 0:36乌克兰东部所以俄罗斯将在未来三个月很准备 0:41大月7月，当时欧洲人到期对俄罗斯制裁和投票 0:45当北约成员国在满足计划扩大西部安全联盟 0:49俄罗斯的西侧现在的足迹俄罗斯已经吸引了它的力量 0:54叙利亚塑造与西方的这些谈判，但它并没有撤回 0:59无论是力量俄罗斯将保持杠杆和战略剧院，因为它

1:04试图与西方和欧洲展示坚持后塑造的谈判 1:08通过加剧叙利亚冲突莫斯科第一季度现在可以持币观望 1:13在叙利亚胡萝卜和谈，试图在分裂欧洲 1:17制裁和龙卷风积聚计划在欧洲，莫斯科面临的挑战 1:22面临的是，即使是那些欧洲人更适合于缓解经济 1:26对俄罗斯的压力像意大利希腊匈牙利他们宁愿使用威胁 1:31打破俄罗斯遵守欧洲的共识与意思 1:35布鲁塞尔讨价还价，争取宽大处理预算赤字8救助条款坏银行 1:41优惠等作为我们在年度预测说，伊斯兰席位 1:45能力和在叙利亚和伊拉克的核心领地将会降低此 1:49一年，但实际上加剧了恐怖威胁和其他地方 1:52包括土耳其在内的欧洲与农民一起伊斯兰国威胁 1:57问题将化合物-use生存危机火鸡也可预期

2:02利用农民的危机，本季度有责任采取数百意向不大 2:06数以千计的移民了欧洲的手中，但它会利用 2:10欧洲绝望中提取的各种优惠，但中 2:14土耳其最需要的让步是一个军事联盟的举措支持 2:18进入叙利亚北部这就是库尔德激进势力不断壮大 2:22他们领土的控制与来自俄罗斯，但与俄罗斯保持的帮助 2:27其在叙利亚土耳其的足迹不会尝试它需要联合盟友 2:31作出这样的举动，将需要以其他方式加强补偿 2:34叛军 2:35叙利亚北部趁现在有这个阵列中充足的议价空间 2:39在欧亚大陆这种冲突不是四分之一，我们很可能会看到大 2:43突破欧洲人不会得到一个可行的交易来管理流动 2:48在叙利亚危机停火临时工将在年底前限制 2:52俄罗斯不太可能打破欧洲表决制裁火鸡可能 2:56得到他需要做出大举进军叙利亚北部和支持 2:59政府在基辅更容易崩溃然后做出政治让步

3:03在乌克兰东部，以满足俄罗斯的全球经济将不会看到太多的救济 3:07用户可以在本季度美元走强更多的压力放在了 3:11中国人民币和更多的不确定性将反馈发送到全球经济 3:14确保美联储紧缩周期将发生在一个渐进的步伐 3:19欧洲央行的货币政策将有助于平息公众对任何突发暴力 3:24欧元区和英镑将承受沉重的压力中的铅行动 3:27 6月23日的全民公决早餐，我们相信公投将可能 3:32结果中的一种表决继续留在联盟但即使如此，英国仍然有一个很大的 3:36贸易赤字问题韦恩下来一斤多伊朗石油市场 3:40持续了供给装置，第二季度不要指望伊朗为 3:44考特尼削减或冻结到生产的政治压力，完善其 3:48从高度伊朗核协议是不会实现经济利益 3:52把自己处于不利地位，沙特阿拉伯及其海湾盟国将意味着一切 3:56看着等待市场在今年晚些时候自我纠正，因为他有

4:00生产水平降下来，现在这只是我们在期待一个快照 4:05接下来的三个月，所以请一定要检查出十足的第二季度 4:09当周一公布3月28日的预测