STRATFOR2016.2.1---2016年2月前瞻預覽

STRATFOR2016.2.1---2016年2月前瞻預覽
發佈日期：2016年2月1日
Stratfor Managing Editor Cole Altom discusses the effect low oil prices will have this year and the challenges facing Argentina's new president.

0:05a feature story in the February issue of compasses all about Argentina a country 0:09of remarkable geographic advantage its oil and natural gas deposits in the vast 0:14fertile purpose lowlands make Argentina one of the most resource-rich countries 0:17in South America was not the world 0:19possessing such ample resources created equally ample export potential but all 0:24too often we're sorry stands in the way of its own success so see most recently 0:28during the administration of former President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner 0:31who can consumer prices excessively low to gain political favor with the 0:35lower-middle classes and prevent inflation from going even higher than it 0:38was it also printed currency to cover spending 'cause expropriated some assets 0:42which discourage foreign investment now a new president Mauricio Macri has begun 0:47to in these policies and implement new ones to hold the Argentine economy's 0:50decline including removing export taxes and quotas on one of the country's main 0:54products agricultural goods as a result agricultural exports surged the first 0:59few weeks of his presidency soybean corn and wheat sales totaling roughly four

1:02billion dollars but the middle of January it re-entered the Egyptian wheat 1:06market and may soon into other markets well still be come a long way to go to 1:11recovery even if Argentina were to fully exploit stored stocks which would bring 1:15in much-needed foreign currency would only partially under the economic damage 1:18the country's suffered moreover the global cereal market is already 1:22oversupplied as demand growth remained weak in 2015 the global food price index 1:27similar lethal and is not expected to rise much in 2016 low oil prices high 1:32inventory levels in China a strong USDollar offset the benefits of price 1:36increases and so on a cruise options are good first step 1:39their little more than that first steps will also be looking at oil acquisitions 1:44more than a year after the drop in oil prices rattled international markets in 1:47mid 2014 low energy prices are looking less like a glitch and more like a 1:51long-term trend that's bad news for some energy firms that have struggled to 1:55absorb the shock but it could be a boon for other companies looking to buy up 1:58their weaker rivals it might also be particularly beneficial for countries

2:02looking to gain political edge by investing in overseas acquisitions 2:05especially since so many could not do so in 2015 now the market beginning to 2:11correct itself and consensus growing about the direction of oil prices 2:14they're turning call may renew efforts in the energy sector to scale up 2:17crippled by sustained low oil prices less resilient companies will be at risk 2:21of being swallowed up by firms big enough to withstand the profit losses 2:24and while in all likelihood I'll be Western oil companies and private equity 2:28firms that stand to benefit the most 2:30some countries in Asia and parts of the Middle East will also join in the buying 2:33spree hoping to not only fuel their growing economies but also to expand 2:37their influence abroad India and China will lead the way by smaller neighbors 2:40in Southeast Asia and by Egypt for these and other stories check out our February 2:45issue of Compass

0:05在罗盘所有关于阿根廷一个国家的二月号一篇专题报道 0:09显着的区位优势的石油和天然气储藏在茫茫 0:14肥沃低地目的使阿根廷资源最丰富的国家之一 0:17在南美洲是不是世界 0:19拥有这样丰富的资源创造同样充足的出口潜力，但所有 0:24我们常常是在自己成功的路上遗憾看台故见最近 0:28前总统克里斯蒂娜·费尔南德斯·基什内尔执政期间， 0:31谁又能消费价格过低获得的政治支持 0:35下阶层和防止通货​​膨胀会比它还要高 0:38它是还印货币以支付支出因为征用部分资产 0:42这阻碍外国投资，现在新总统毛里西奥·马克里已开始 0:47在这些政策和实施新的持有阿根廷经济的 0:50跌幅包括该国的主要原因之一除去出口税和配额 0:54产品农产品，结果农产品出口猛增第一 0:59他的总统任期大豆玉米和小麦的销售数周共计大约4

1:02十亿美元，但一月中旬它重新进入埃及小麦 1:06市场可能很快进入其他市场也仍然可以走了很长的路要走 1:11恢复即使阿根廷是充分利用存储股这将使 1:15在急需的外汇只会部分下的经济损失 1:18该国遭受而且全球谷物市场已经 1:22由于供应过剩需求的增长，2015年全球食品价格指数仍然疲弱 1:27类似的杀伤力，并且预计不会涨多少，2016年低油价高 1:32在中国的库存水平很强U​​SDOLLAR抵消价格的好处 1:36增大等邮轮选择好第一步 1:39他们多一点比第一个步骤，也将寻求收购油 1:44一年多来在油价下跌后，叮叮当当国际市场 1:47 2014年中期的低能源价格看起来越来越不像一个毛刺，而更像一个 1:51长期趋势是个坏消息对于一直在努力一些能源公司 1:55吸收冲击，但它可能是为其他公司想要购买一个福音 1:58他们的对手较弱，也可能对国家特别有利

2:02希望通过在海外并购投资，以获得政治优势 2:05特别是因为如此多的不能在2015年做到现在市场开始 2:11正确的本身和共识不断增加对油价的方向 2:14他们转向呼叫可以更新能源部门的努力，以扩大 2:17通过持续的低油价弹性较小的公司将处于危险之中残废 2:21由公司大到足以承受利润损失被吞噬 2:24虽然在所有的可能性，我会西方石油公司和私人股权 2:28即代表公司受益最大 2:30一些国家在亚洲和中东部分地区也将加入购买 2:33大礼包希望不仅推动其经济增长的同时也扩大 2:37他们在国外的影响力，印度和中国将在更小的邻居带路 2:40在东南亚和埃及这些和其他的故事看看我们的二月 2:45罗盘的问题